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The Minnesota Twins (28-23) welcome the Texas Rangers (24-29) to Target Field Sunday. First pitch in the finale of the 3-game series is set for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Rangers vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Twins lead 2-0
The Twins beat the Rangers 3-2 Friday and 5-3 Saturday, closing as -158 and -141 favorites, respectively. They are 2-0 straight up but 1-1 against the spread (ATS) in the series. Minnesota is on a 4-game winning streak, which is piggybacking off 7 consecutive losses. It is 24-27 ATS on the season.
The Rangers still sit 2nd in the AL West but have lost 6 straight games. They have failed to cover in 5 of those 6, closing as underdogs in all but 1. Texas is 20-33 ATS on the season. It has struggled on the road and is just 12-16 on the season.
Rangers at Twins projected starters
TBD vs. RHP Pablo Lopez
The Rangers have not announced a starting pitcher. RHP Gerson Garabito was added to the taxi squad Saturday and could potentially make his MLB debut.
- 2024 stats with Triple-A Round Rock: 1-2, 2.05 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.91 WHIP in 4 starts and 2 relief appearances
- 2024 road stats with Triple-A Round Rock: 1-1, 1.50 ERA (12 IP, 2 ER), 0.92 WHIP in 2 starts and 1 relief appearance
Lopez (4-4, 4.72 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 55 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 12-3 road loss to the Washington Nationals Monday
- 2024 home splits: 2-2, 3.49 ERA (28 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 29 H, 2 HR, 4 BB, 29 K in 5 starts
- Career vs. Rangers: 0-1, 9.00 ERA (10 IP, 10 ER), 1.90 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 2 starts
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Rangers at Twins odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:22 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rangers +146 (bet $100 to win $146) | Twins -174 (bet $174 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rangers +1.5 (-152) | Twins -1.5 (+126)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Rangers at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Rangers 4, Twins 2
Moneyline
BET RANGERS (+146).
Lopez has given up at least 3 earned runs in 6 of his 10 starts this season, and the Twins are 5-5 straight up in games he has started. While the Twins are a streaky side, they have 3 sweeps this season and 2 of those were against the Chicago White Sox.
In 8 of the Twins’ last 11 games, they have scored 3 or fewer runs. With the Rangers 15-13 straight up following a loss, expect them to show some resilience Sunday. Back RANGERS (+146).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
As run-line underdogs, the Rangers are just too expensive here and should be able to come out on top or lose by fewer than 2 runs. The Twins are 4-6 ATS in their 10 games with Lopez on the mound, making their value not great either.
Skip a run-line play.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 8 (-110).
Both teams are heavily trending towards fewer runs. The Rangers are 1-6 O/U in their last 7 games and 22-31 O/U on the season. Texas has scored 3 or fewer in 6 of those 7 games as well. The Twins are 23-27-1 O/U on the season and 3-9 O/U in their last 12 games, having gone Under in 3 straight.
Both games in the series went Under. The first game ended with 5 runs and the second with 8. Expect another low-scoring battle, and play UNDER 8.5 (-110).
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