Spring practices are nearing an end, and, as always, the hype surrounding the Texas football program for the upcoming season is enormous.
Although there are still major question marks and position battles taking place for just about every team in the country, many season previews, metrics, and predictions have already been released for the 2022 college football season.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) was updated this week, and surprisingly tabs the Longhorns as the favorite to win the Big 12 title this season. Texas fans would be extremely happy with that result, but the hype doesn’t stop there.
Heather Dinich of ESPN took a deeper look at the top 10 teams in their preseason FPI, and Texas is one of only six teams with at least a 1% chance of actually winning the national title this season according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Here’s Dinich’s breakdown of the Longhorns expectations.
- Preseason FPI: No. 6
- Preseason SP+: No. 33
- Chance to win conference: 41%
- Chance to make the CFP: 21%
- Chance to play in the national title game: 7%
Biggest obstacle: Winning the Big 12. Before anyone starts talking playoff in Austin, the Longhorns need to win the Big 12. Oklahoma State and Baylor played for the league title last year, when Texas finished a forgettable 5-7.
What the committee will like: A Sept. 10 win against Alabama. This one’s a no-brainer. If the Longhorns somehow make it to the Big 12 title game undefeated and lose, a victory against Alabama could be enough for a top-four finish.
What the committee won’t like: A stumble to an unranked opponent. The committee will forgive a loss to Alabama with a Big 12 title. A second loss to an unheralded opponent would be more difficult to overcome, even with a conference championship; and last year, Texas rattled off a string of three such losses (versus Iowa State, Kansas and West Virginia).
Texas fans are all too familiar with enormous preseason expectations, only to witness their team not living up to the hype. Second-year head coach Steve Sarkisian seems to have the program trending in the right direction, but he must receive elite play at the quarterback position this season in order for any of these expectations to come to fruition.