Texas at West Virginia odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Texas Longhorns at West Virginia Mountaineers odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Texas Longhorns (4-6, 2-5 in Big 12) take on the West Virginia Mountaineers (4-6, 2-5) Saturday on Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET. Below, we look at the Texas vs. West Virginia odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.

Texas lost its fifth straight game in a stunning fashion, losing to the Kansas Jayhawks 57-56 in overtime as a 31-point home favorite last week. Even more painful for the Longhorns was that leading RB Bijan Robinson and CB Josh Thompson suffered season-ending injuries in the loss.

Texas is 4-6 ATS and 5-5 O/U with the 14th-toughest strength of schedule, according to USA TODAY’s Jeff Sagarin.

West Virginia has lost back-to-back games to the Oklahoma State Cowboys (Nov. 6) and Kansas State Wildcats (Nov. 13) by a combined score of 58-20.

Senior Mountaineers QB Jarret Doege leads the Big 12 in passing yards (2,448) on the most passing attempts (322). West Virginia is 5-5 ATS and 4-6 O/U with the seventh-hardest schedule, according to Sagarin.

Texas won the last two meetings with West Virginia, but the Mountaineers covered the spread in the last contest as 6.5-point road underdogs in a 17-13 loss last November.

This is head coach Steve Sarkisian’s first year in charge of the Texas football program.

Texas at West Virginia odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 5:14 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Texas +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | West Virginia -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Texas +2.5 (-115) | West Virginia -2.5 (-107)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 56.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Texas at West Virginia odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Texas 31, West Virginia 21

Money line

“LEAN” to TEXAS (+105), which has to be one of the cheapest prices for the Longhorns in a while.

The Longhorns just lost to perennial Big 12 doormats in Kansas. It was the Jayhawks’ first conference road win since 2008.

Three of the four losses in Texas’ current five-game losing streak came against ranked teams and the other loss was to an Iowa State team expected to compete for the conference title.

I’d argue that it was impressive Texas only lost by one score to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor. I’m still confident Sarkisian will have Texas competing for a conference title in a couple of years.

Texas has higher net predicted points added (PPA), yards per play, Havoc rate, third-down conversion rate and red-zone scoring rate differentials than West Virginia.

It’s not like the Mountaineers have a ton of marquee wins. West Virginia did beat Iowa State, but the Cyclones have failed to live up to preseason expectations.

Furthermore, more than 80% of the cash wagered at the time of writing this column is on West Virginia (according to Pregame.com). All the pro-Mountaineers money has steamed West Virginia up from a 1-point opening line favorite.

There’s just too much value in getting TEXAS (+105), a team with more talent, better efficiency and that has fallen out of favor with the betting public.

Against the spread

Definitely BET TEXAS +2.5 (-115) heavier than or instead of the money line. The Longhorns plus the points is my favorite bet in this game and if we wait until closer to kickoff, perhaps we can get a flat +3.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the UNDER 56.5 (-112) because Texas just soared Over the total vs. Kansas, so there’s value in going the other way on this game.

Plus, there’s “reverse line movement” in the Under’s direction. According to Pregame.com, roughly three-fourths of the money is on the Over.

But the total has been lowered from the 59.5-point opener at Circa Sports in Las Vegas, which is a market-making sportsbook.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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