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The TCU Horned Frogs (5-3, 3-2 Big 12) take on the Baylor Bears (4-4, 2-3) at McLane Stadium Saturday. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the TCU vs. Baylor odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
TCU edged Texas Tech last week 35-34, failing to cover as 4.5-point favorites. They were down 34-21 midway through the fourth quarter, but they scored the final 14 points to seal the deal. QB Josh Hoover had 344 passing yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs. They have won 2 straight.
Baylor also won its second in a row with a 38-28 victory over Oklahoma State. The Bears covered as 7-point favorites. RB Dawson Pendergrass flashed on the ground, rushing 6 times for 142 yards and a TD. QB Sawyer Robertson was 11-for-19 for 222 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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TCU at Baylor odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): TCU +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Baylor -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): TCU +3 (-105) | Baylor -3 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 63.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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TCU at Baylor picks and predictions
Prediction
TCU 30, Baylor 27
Moneyline
TCU has taken 4 straight matchups and 8 of 9. Last year’s contest was a 42-17 thrashing at TCU. Hoover threw for 412 yards and 2 TDs while rushing for another.
The Frogs are 3-1 on the road, and the Bears are 3-1 at home. TCU has signature wins over Utah as 3.5-point dogs and Kansas as 1-point dogs.
The Frogs have won 3 of 4, and Baylor really doesn’t have much of a resume. They also have better continuity with Hoover under center, and he ransacked the Bears last season. Due to such, I’ll take the value with TEXAS CHRISTIAN +130.
Against the spread
Since we’re taking the value on the ML, I’ll forego the spread here.
PASS.
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Over/Under
Both of these teams are 5-3 O/U. Baylor’s last 3 at home have hit the Over. Meanwhile, the Over is 4-2 in TCU’s last 6 games. We haven’t had a total this large in this matchup since it went Over 65 in 2016. The Over is 0-1-2 in the last 4 meetings, and I feel it’s a little too lofty Saturday.
Take the UNDER 63.5 (-110).
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