Panic … or patience?
Through the first three weeks of the season, that’s the question a number of fantasy football general managers are asking of themselves in regards to some of their injured or underwhelming top draft picks this summer.
Now, sure, perhaps the first three rounds of your draft played out something like this: Derrick Henry-Najee Harris-Kyler Murray.
But, for some, it could’ve gone like this: Jonathan Taylor-Calvin Ridley-Josh Jacobs.
Or this: Saquon Barkley-A.J. Brown-Allen Robinson.
And those latter two scenarios — or even some combination of above three — is where the panic or patience question comes into play with a number of struggling fantasy squads already staring at a 0-3 hole.
Below we look at some of the under-performing players from the first three rounds, going by MyFantasyLeague.com ADP, and where they slot into the panic-or-patience (POP) spectrum going forward.
Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor
Preseason ADP: 12 (ninth among running backs)
Position rank through Week 3: 28th with 32.1 total fantasy points (point-per-reception scoring) in three games
2021 stats: 42 rushes-171 yards-0 TDs; 11 targets-8 receptions-70 yards-0 TDs
POP spectrum: Justified concern.
In his rookie season a year ago, Taylor certainly was off to a slow start before finishing with a sizzling stretch late. But the fantasy concerns with Taylor this year have more to do with the Colts in general.
Indy is one of five teams off to a winless start, and of that quintet, only the New York Jets (20) and Jacksonville Jaguars (53) have scored fewer points than the Colts’ 56 so far. Indy has managed all of four offensive touchdowns to date, with wide receiver Zach Pascal accounting for three of them.
Taylor, as just mentioned, has none. While he’s accounted for an even two-thirds of the team’s rushing attempts, Nyheim Hines has been more involved in the passing game (16 targets and 12 receptions to Taylor’s 11 and 8). Hines also has been more efficient, averaging 6.5 yards per touch to Taylor’s 4.8 while finding his way into the end zone once.
With Pro Bowl guard Quenton Nelson going down with an injury Sunday, joining right tackle Braden Smith, it furthers the concerns that Indy’s offensive line has taken a noticeable step back this season, and there is a similar view about the Colts defense as well following a top-10 season in 2020.
Banged up and still struggling, QB Carson Wentz certainly hasn’t been able to offset the declines elsewhere, and it all adds up to a forecast for more negative game-scripts and a less-than-stellar fantasy outlook for Taylor.
Trade him if you can recoup close to top-two-round value in return.
Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs
Preseason ADP: 14 (third among wide receivers)
Position rank through Week 3: 25th with 44.1 PPR points in three games
2021 stats: 31 targets-19 receptions-191 yards-1 TD
POP spectrum: Patience, please.
Most all of Diggs’ efficiency and productivity metrics are down across the board following his top-three fantasy wideout season of 2020.
His catch rate has fallen to 61.3 percent after he finished at 76.3 a season ago, and his yards-per-catch (12.1 to 10.1) and yards-per-target (9.2-6.2) averages are down as well here in the early going of 2021.
With one TD grab so far, Diggs also is on pace for six this season after snaring eight scoring passes a season ago.
Only five players — TE Darren Waller and WRs Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen and Brandin Cooks — have been targeted more frequently this season than Diggs (31), and he still has a healthy team-leading target share of 25.8 percent in one of the league’s top aerial attacks.
That’s more than enough reason to maintain patience and hold tight with Diggs, who likely — and predictably — will fall short of his 2020 career highs but should still comfortably finish as a top-15 fantasy wideout when all is said and done.
Atlanta Falcons WR Calvin Ridley
Preseason ADP: 19 (sixth among wide receivers)
Position rank through Week 3: 26th with 43.5 PPR points in three games
2021 stats: 29 targets-20 receptions-175 yards-1 TD
POP spectrum: Concerning start but stay the course.
Ridley is coming off a breakout third season in which he finished fifth among fantasy wideouts with 281.5 total PPR points, an average of 18.8 per game.
And even though Ridley has 12 more targets so far than any other Falcon, and his catch percentage is up 6.1 percentage points from 2020 (69.0 from 62.9), Riley’s fantasy-points-per game average has dipped to 14.5 so far this season.
Blame it mainly on average depth of target. Ridley is only averaging 8.8 yards per reception and 6.0 yards per target — well down from his 2020 average of 15.3 and 9.6, respectively — as Falcons QB Matt Ryan ranks dead last among quarterbacks who have started at least three games with average of 4.2 intended air yards per target.
That average should most definitely improve, though, going forward as Ryan and Co. settle into new head coach Arthur Smith’s offensive system. With Julio Jones now gone and rookie TE Kyle Pitts finding his way, Ridley remains the unquestioned No. 1 target in Atlanta, so hang tight if you have him or perhaps attempt to buy low on him if you don’t.
Kansas City Chiefs RB Clyde-Edwards-Helaire
Preseason ADP: 24 (14th among running backs)
Position rank through Week 3: 26th with 33.7 PPR points in three games
2021 stats: 44 rushes-189 yards-0 TDs; 5 targets-5 receptions-38 yards-1 TD
POP spectrum: More patience, but it’s most definitely wearing thin.
Many CEH owners were in full-blown panic mode entering Sunday as KC’s lead back had totaled only 80 scoreless yards on 30 touches through his first two games.
But then came Sunday’s 109 total yards, including a 10-yard scoring reception, against the Los Angeles Chargers as the second-year back posted 16.9 PPR points (including his second lost fumble in as many games).
It was his fifth career game with at least 15 points, and therein lies the rub.
That’s only five definite fantasy start-worthy contests out of the 18 Chiefs games CEH has played in since the start of last season. In all, he’s totaled a modest seven TDs and 44 receptions in those 18 games, including a pair of playoff contests.
Edwards-Helaire still has much fantasy appeal as the lead back (49 touches to backup Darrel Williams’ 13 so far this season) in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense, but his lack of reliable usage and TD production is still rather worrisome.
Tennessee Titans WR A.J. Brown
Preseason ADP: 27 (ninth among wide receivers)
Position rank through Week 3: 69th with 22.5 PPR points in three games
2021 stats: 19 targets-7 receptions-92 yards-1 TD; 1 rush-3 yards-0 TDs
POP spectrum: Not quite at panic-button level but getting kinda nervous.
Brown, fantasy’s 14th-best wide receiver in 2020, caught just seven of 17 targets for 92 yards in the first two games — saved only by a Week 1 TD grab — and then left early Sunday in his third contest with a hamstring issue, finishing with all of 0.3 fantasy points on a 3-yard run.
Not quite the start fantasy GMs were hoping for when they used an early-round pick on the third-year wideout.
QB Ryan Tannehill and the Titans’ passing game have formed a potent 1-2 fantasy punch with elite RB Derrick Henry in recent seasons. But while Henry still is roaring along as the overall RB1 so far this season, Tannehill has fallen off the pace with declines in completion percentage (64.7 so far) and yards per attempt (7.4) while putting up a 4:3 TD-to-interception ratio.
The Tannehill-to-Brown connection has been particularly inefficient with a 36.8 completion percentage and a 4.8 yard-per-target average on his team-leading 19 looks.
Things don’t figure to be nearly this bad going forward, but the WR1/high-end WR2 season you were seeking from Brown when you drafted him already feels like it will remain out of reach.
His current hammy issue certainly won’t help, but start feeling out the Brown trade possibilities to see if anyone in your league still believes in Brown’s low-end WR1 upside.
Las Vegas Raiders RB Josh Jacobs
Preseason ADP: 35th (17th among running backs)
Position rank through Week 3: 53rd with 17.0 PPR points in one game
2021 stats: 10 rushes-34 yards-2 TDs; 2 targets-1 reception-6 yards-0 TDs
POP spectrum: Patience needed for now, but there remains cause for concern.
Jacobs didn’t do much, yardage-wise, in the Week 1 overtime win over the Baltimore Ravens, gaining 34 yards on 10 carries and catching one 6-yard pass. But he did salvage his fantasy week with a pair of rushing scores.
He was in and out of the opener with ankle and toe injuries, and he’s missed the Raiders’ two games since as Peyton Barber and Kenyan Drake have shouldered the backfield load.
The lingering fantasy concerns with Jacobs are his health and his use in the passing game with Drake now there. And Barber, who was one of the team’s unsung heroes of Sunday’s 31-28 overtime win over the Miami Dolphins with 142 total yards and a TD on 26 touches, likely earned himself some touches going forward as well.
Jacobs’ injuries have likely doused most fantasy trade possibilities for the time being, so you’ll likely have to hold tight and see what develops after he gets back on the field.
Chicago Bears WR Allen Robinson
Preseason ADP: 36 (12th among wide receivers)
Position rank through Week 3: 65th with 24.6 PPR points in three games
2021 stats: 21 targets-10 receptions-86 yards-1 TD
POP spectrum: Definite panic.
Robinson’s fantasy owners could talk themselves into things being OK after he received 11 targets in Week 1 and then at least salvaged double-digit fantasy points with a TD in a two-catch, 24-yard outing in Week 2.
But then the Bears’ whole offense devolved into a Week 3 trash fire with six first downs and all of 47 total yards on 42 plays after losing 67 yards on nine sacks in Sunday’s 26-6 beatdown in Cleveland.
With veteran QB Andy Dalton injured and out with a knee bruise, raw rookie Justin Fields made his first start and finished 6-of-20 for 68 yards while doing his best to dodge constant pressure. Robinson was targeted a team-high six times but they only resulted in two catches for 27 yards, which again led the team.
Yikes.
Now in his eighth season, Robinson infamously has been married to below-median QB play throughout his career in Jacksonville and Chicago, and given this season’s start, 2021 looks like it could even be worse than usual — especially if Dalton winds up missing more than a few games.
Trade Robinson without hesitation if anyone is offering up anything comparable to low-end WR2 or starting-flex fantasy value.