What makes a top-level fantasy quarterback in NFL 2020?
Is it the ability to get the ball downfield for consistent completions?
Is it the added threat of serving as a rushing weapon?
How about avoiding mistakes, being the most efficient where it matters most in the red zone or simply moving the chains and filling up the stat sheet via a large volume of plays? The latter is a key component for fantasy success at other positions, so why should quarterbacks be an exception?
We’re tackling those very questions this week in TT&T as we go inside the QB stats and metrics.
The method here is simple. We’ve taken the top 20 fantasy quarterbacks, in terms of average points per game (Huddle performance/PPR scoring) and ranked their respective numbers in the following five categories:
- Average number of plays (passing plus rushing attempts) per game
- Percentage of total fantasy points accumulated via rushing/receiving (cue Josh Allen’s 12-yard TD catch Sunday in Arizona)
- Completed air yards per passing attempt
- Total number of turnovers (interceptions plus lost fumbles)
- Red-zone efficiency (average ranking in red-zone passer rating and rushing fantasy points)
We’re then comparing those five rankings with our actual top 20 and see which have the closest correlation to fantasy success. You likely already have your strong suspicions, but follow along and see what the numbers reveal in our actual exercise.
We start with our list of the top 20 fantasy QBs coming out of Week 10. Note: We’re excluding those who are injured and out for the season (Dak Prescott) or have been benched (Ryan Fitzpatrick) for the foreseeable future.
Your current top 20:
- Kyler Murray 34.1 fantasy points per game
- Russell Wilson 32.2
- Patrick Mahomes 29.3
- Josh Allen 28.6
- Justin Herbert 28.5
- Aaron Rodgers 27.3
- Deshaun Watson 25.4
- Tom Brady 24.8
- Lamar Jackson 23.8
- Matt Ryan 23.3
- Gardner Minshew 23.3
- Ryan Tannehill 22.6
- Carson Wentz 22.6
- Joe Burrow 22.6
- Ben Roethlisberger 22.5
- Cam Newton 22.0
- Matthew Stafford 21.8
- Teddy Bridgewater 21.7
- Drew Brees 21.6
- Jared Goff 21.2
Average number of plays per game
Top five: Burrow 45.0, Murray 44.2, Allen 43.7, Wentz 42.6, Herbert 42.3
Bottom five: Bridgewater 36.5, Stafford 36.4, Newton 36.1, Brees 34.8, Tannehill 34.0
Average ranking differential: 4.3
Notable
Murray, Allen and Herbert are top five on both lists, and the first two rank third and fourth, respectively, among QBs in average rushing attempts per game.
The top-overall pick Burrow, meanwhile, has simply been a volume monster with his league-leading 41.1 passing attempts per contest — 2.1 more than Ryan — and he’s also tied for 10th with 35 rushing attempts (3.9 per outing).
The soon-to-be 36-year-old Rodgers, though, is the most efficient of the lot, averaging the sixth-most fantasy points (27.3) on the 15th-most opportunities (36.6) per game.
Percentage of fantasy points via rushing/receiving
Top five: Newton 90.1 points (51.1 percent); Murray 120.4 points (39.2); Jackson 70.4 (32.8); Wentz 50.6 (24.9); Allen 66.1 (23.2)
Bottom five: Brees 14.2 (7.3); Ryan 12.8 (6.1); Rodgers 12.9 (5.3); Stafford 7.7 (3.9); Roethlisberger 1.4 (0.7)
Average ranking differential: 5.7
Notable
There was little doubt that Newton, with his crazy 3:1 ratio of rushing to passing touchdowns, was going to head this list here. Adding in his 16-yard reception bumped him over the magical 50 percent mark.
In all, Newton’s nine ground scores are already the third-highest single-season total of his 10-year career. He’s on pace to finish with 17, which would break his QB single-season record of 14, set in his rookie of 2011.
That’s, of course, if Murray doesn’t get there first.
With his QB league-leading 604 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, Murray would’ve been No. 1 here in just about any other season and certainly could overtake Newton for the highest percentage before the season is out.
Wentz, meanwhile, already has totaled two more rushing TDs than his first four seasons combined, while the bottom five on this list are no surprise with those five quarterbacks all at least 32 years old or older.
Completed air yards per passing attempt (data via ProFootballReference.com)
Top five: Ryan 5.10, Wilson 4.84, Watson 4.76, Allen 4.60, Tannehill 4.59
Bottom five: Bridgewater 3.67, Goff 3.59, Brees 3.58, Rodgers 3.55, Roethlisberger 3.19
Average ranking differential: 4.4
Notable
Ryan, fourth in intended air yards with 3,069, leads the league with 1,789 air yards on completions — 104 more than Brady, the runaway intended air yards leader with 3,342.
Wentz, who ranks 13th among this top-20 group with 3.86 air yards per completion, leads the league with 9.25 intended air yards per attempt, showing how inefficient he’s been connecting downfield.
It’s shocking to see Rodgers near the bottom of this list, but he’s benefitted from a league-high 1,463 yards after the catch from his receivers and trails only the 49ers’ Jimmy Garoppolo (7.6) with an average of 6.9 yards after the catch per completion.
Fewest turnovers
Top five: Mahomes 1, Herbert 4, Rodgers 4, Roethlisberger 4, Tannehill 4
Bottom five: Goff 9, Murray 10, Allen 11, Wilson 13, Wentz 16
Average ranking differential: 6.2
Notable
Wentz’s outlier season is further exemplified here as he’s thrown a league-high 12 interceptions — two away from his rookie campaign total of 14 in 2016. He’s also lost four of his league-high nine total fumbles.
Early in the season when the Wilson-For-MVP campaign was running full steam ahead, he only had three turnovers (all interceptions) in his first five games. In four contests since, Wilson has 10 turnovers (seven interceptions, three fumbles), including seven over the last two weekends.
Not surprisingly, the Seahawks have dropped three of their last four games, losing each time Wilson has committed multiple turnovers. They’re 6-0 when he finishes with one turnover or fewer.
On the flip side, Mahomes has been crazy good with 27 total TDs (25 passing, two rushing) and only one turnover — an interception in Week 5. He leads the league with 0.3 interception percentage, joining the Raiders’ Derek Carr (0.7) as the only quarterbacks with INT rates below 1.0.
Red-zone efficiency (per ProFootballReference)
Top five: Bridgewater 115.5 passer rating, 24.3 rushing/receiving fantasy points; Allen 111.6, 41.3; Jackson 127.9, 13.7; Mahomes 112.8, 14.4; Murray 108.2, 58.2
Bottom five: Burrow 86.0, 12.0; Wilson 96.3, 6.2; Minshew 93.0, 6.6; Ryan 83.0, 8.6; Stafford 80.2, 0.0.
Average ranking differential: 6.0
Notable
Brady and Rodgers — who else did you expect? — are 1-2 in red-zone TD passes with 20 and 19, respectively. Neither has thrown an interception inside the opposition’s 20-yard line.
Bridgewater, though, ranks second to Jackson (127.9) with a 115.5 red-zone passer rating and ranks fifth among our QB contingent with 24.3 rushing fantasy points in the red zone.
Newton (60.3 fantasy points), Murray (58.2) and Allen (41.3) are 1-2-3 among quarterbacks in red-zone rushing points, with Newton (nine) and Murray (eight) accounting for 17 of their 19 combined rushing scores inside the 20.
Overall summation
Dual-threat QBs have been the fantasy rage in recent seasons, and Murray, with his position-leading rushing numbers, is carrying that torch high in 2020, averaging almost two fantasy points more per game that anyone else and nearly 10 points more per outing than the No. 10 QB (Ryan).
Consider that even in PPR formats, Murray’s would rank 15th among running backs with his 120.4 total points from rushing alone.
However, seven of the current top 12 fantasy quarterbacks have totaled fewer than 30 fantasy points on the ground this season, and in our study of the statistical categories above, the percentage of fantasy points via rushing/receiving showed only the third-best correlation to fantasy QB success.
The top two categories were real close, but it was the basic number of average plays (pass attempts plus rushes), which showed the highest correlation, with eight of the top 11 quarterbacks there also ranking among the top 11 fantasy QBs.
So, like touches for running backs and targets for pass-catchers, the number of QB opportunities definitely deserves more of our fantasy attention.
Completed air yards was a close second, with eight of the top 10 QBs matching up in each category. And while air yards has been more of a metric to evaluate wide receivers, it also deserves more consideration in foretelling fantasy QB success as well.
Avoiding turnovers and red-zone efficiency don’t appear to be as important as the metrics we just discussed, but they aren’t to be overlooked as they also paint part of the full fantasy QB picture.