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The Tampa Bay Rays (37-40) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (37-39) wrap up a 3-game interleague series Sunday at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Pirates picked up a 4-3 victory on Saturday as a slight underdog (-106) to level the series 1-1, setting up a rubber game on Sunday afternoon. The Rays won the series opener 10-3 Friday night, cashing as a slight favorite (-127) as the Over (9) cashed.
Tampa Bay had a 3-game winning streak snapped on Saturday, but it is still a respectable 4-2 in the past 6 games, including 5-0 on the run line as an underdog, including 3 outright wins. The Over is 6-2 in the past 8 games for the Rays.
The Bucs are a solid 4-2 in the previous 6 contests, but they’re just 1-3 straight-up in the past 4 times as a favorite. Pittsburgh is also just 1-5 in the past 6 as a favorite on the run line. The Under is on a 5-1 run for the Pirates, while going 11-3 in the past 14 contests.
Rays at Pirates projected starters
RHP Aaron Civale vs. RHP Paul Skenes
Civale (2-5, 5.42 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 76 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 7-6 road loss vs. Minnesota Twins Tuesday
- 2024 road splits: 1-2, 6.75 ERA (33 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.71 WHIP, .308 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 4 HR, 13 BB, 29 K in 7 starts
Skenes (4-0, 2.29 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 0.99 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 12.1 K/9 in 39 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 4-1 home victory vs. Cincinnati Reds last Monday
- 2024 home splits: 2-0, 3.43 ERA (21 IP, 8 ER), 1.38 WHIP, .286 OBA, 3 HR, 5 BB, 25 K in 4 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Rays at Pirates odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:09 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rays +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Pirates -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-155) | Pirates -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Rays at Pirates picks and predictions
Prediction
Pirates 5, Rays 2
Moneyline
The PIRATES (-160) are a solid play behind the rookie Skenes in this matinee action.
While the Bucs are a little on the chalky side, and Skenes actually has much better splits on the road than at home, he and the Pirates are a solid play against the struggling Rays (+135).
Tampa Bay has been contending in recent seasons, but it is 3 games under .500 and struggling to stay out of the basement in the AL East this season.
Run line/Against the spread
The PIRATES -1.5 (+125) are worth a look, if you’re a little less conservative. At plus-money, the Bucs are a nice play behind Skenes, especially since Civale has been so giving on the road this season for the Rays +1.5 (-155).
Over/Under
UNDER 7.5 (-105) is a strong play, mainly because Skenes is on the bump in this series finale. The risk is with Civale, as he has a 6.75 ERA in 33 1/3 IP. The total has ended up going low in 5 of the past 8 games for the Rays with Civale on the bump.
For the Pirates, the Under is 5-1 in the past 6 games, and 11-3 in the past 14 contests. With Skenes on the hill, the Over cashed in his first 5 starts, with the Bucs scoring 45 runs of offensive support. The Under is 2-0 in his past 2 outings, with the Pirates outscoring the opposition 6-2.
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