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The Tampa Bay Rays (88-56) open a 3-game series with the Minnesota Twins (75-68) Monday. First pitch from Target Field is at 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Rays lead 3-0
Tampa won the final 3 games of a 4-game set vs. the Seattle Mariners over the weekend after dropping the opener Thursday. The Rays have 14 wins in their last 19 games but still trail the Baltimore Orioles by 3 games in the AL East.
The Twins have won 2 of 3 games in each of their last 3 series, including a weekend set with the New York Mets that ended with a 2-0 loss Sunday. Minnesota has a 7 1/2 game lead on Cleveland in the AL Central.
Rays at Twins projected starters
RHP Tyler Glasnow vs. RHP Sonny Gray
Glasnow (8-5, 2.98 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 12.1 K/9 through 99 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 14 K in 3-1 home victory vs. Boston Red Sox Wednesday
- 2023 road stats: 4-3, 3.17 ERA (48 1/3 IP, 17 ER) with 10.8 K/9 in 8 starts
- Out of his 123 career appearances, just 1 has come against Minnesota — No-decision, 3 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 5 K in a 2018 relief appearance
Gray (7-6, 2.98 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 163 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K in 8-3 road win vs. Guardians Tuesday
- 2023 home stats: 4-3, 2.80 ERA (83 2/3 IP, 26 ER) with 8.9 K/9 and just 3 HR allowed.
- Career vs. Rays: 4-5, 4.29 ERA (79 2/3 IP, 38 ER), 7.8 K/9 in 12 starts and 2 relief appearances, most recently in 2018
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Rays at Twins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rays -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Twins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays -1.5 (+135) | Twins +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Rays at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 4, Twins 3
Moneyline
Glasnow is in the midst of a dominant 12-start stretch in which he has registered a 2.30 ERA with a 101/15 K/BB and just 5 HR allowed across 74 1/3 IP. He’s tough to bet against and should help his team come out on top in this one.
Back the RAYS (-125).
Run line/Against the spread
Gray hasn’t been as dominant as Glasnow has, though he has been excellent himself, both throughout the season and in recent weeks. In his last 7 starts, he has recorded a 2.36 ERA (45 2/3 IP, 12 ER) along with a 45/9 K/BB. Tampa has the pitching edge, but Gray should keep it close, so the wise move is to SKIP this line.
Over/Under
The Twins rank 9th in the majors in runs per game at home (4.81), while Tampa is 5th in runs per game on the road (5.43). Both will be hard-pressed to get there in this game, as both starting pitchers have been on quite a roll.
The total is a low one but both these hurlers are fully capable of throwing up zeroes in this game. This should end up pretty close to the total but a slight lean to UNDER 7.5 (-110) is the call here.
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