The New York Yankees (60-57) and Miami Marlins (61-57) clash in the Sunday finale of a 3-game series. First pitch at loanDepot park is 1:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Yankees took Friday’s series opener 9-4, but were held in check by RHP Sandy Alcantara in a 3-1 pitcher’s duel Saturday. New York is 2-3 on a current homestand.
The Marlins have struggled mightily in the 2nd half (8-18), but with Saturday’s triumph they are 3-1 in their last 4 games. Miami has not won 4 games in a 5-game stretch since late June.
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Yankees at Marlins projected starters
RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Eury Perez
Cole (10-3, 2.75 ERA) is tabbed for his 25th start of the season. He’s logged a 1.04 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 150 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 3 K 5-1 loss at Chicago White Sox Monday
- 2023 road stats: 3-2, 2.59 ERA in 62 2/3 IP across 10 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Marlins: 2-2, 4.50 ERA in 32 IP (2015-17)
- The 4 R Monday against the Sox are the most he’s yielded in a single start since May 28; his 3 K Monday were his fewest in a game since May 23
- Has been buoyed by a .269 BA on balls in play and an 81% left-on-base rate (.246 BABIP with runners in scoring position)
Perez (5-4, 2.79 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has notched a 1.12 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 58 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 7 K in 5-2 loss at Cincinnati Reds Monday
- 2023 home stats: 3-1, 1.10 ERA in 32 2/3 IP in 6 starts
- Has never faced the Yankees
- Has been buoyed by a .266 BA on balls in play and an 88% left-on-base rate
- Recalled from Double-A Pensacola before his Aug. 7 start: was off the Miami roster for a month — pitching just twice in the minors — in an effort to tamp down the rookie’s workload
Yankees at Marlins odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:02 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Yankees -132 (bet $132 to win $100) | Marlins +112 (bet $100 to win $112)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+134) | Marlins +1.5 (-162)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Yankees at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 5, Marlins 4
Moneyline
Both starting pitchers in this game are likely a bit too far out over their skis with their surface numbers. And with better expectations.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The Over is the best leverage play for this game. A Yankees -1.5 would bring value in the +145 range. PASS otherwise.
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Over/Under
The pitching here gets a 3-corner fade: both starters and the Yankee bullpen (a group living dangerously with a .267 BABIP and one that has allowed more frequent hard contact in recent weeks).
Perez’s 2nd start back could bring on some fatigue and mistakes. He’s up against a disappointing New York offense but one that had been hitting mistakes of late … until Saturday (.834 OPS Aug. 2-11).
Both offenses are capable of more. In August, Miami has scored just 3.55 runs per game. But that figure has been hoisted alongside an untenable 12-of-72 (.167) mark with runners in scoring position.
Look for this line to move toward the Over. BACK THE OVER 7 (-115) and look to cash on a good price.
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