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New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Yankees (60-60) and Atlanta Braves (77-42) meet Wednesday to cap off a 3-game series. First pitch at Truist Park is slated for 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Atlanta leads 2-0.

New York has been outscored 16-3 in dropping the first 2 games of this series. The Yankees have lost 4 in a row overall and are 3-7 in their last 10 games.

The Braves are 8-1 over their last 9 games at home. Over that stretch, Atlanta has slashed .322/.401/.657 (1.059 OPS) while scoring 70 runs.

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Yankees at Braves projected starters

RHP Randy Vasquez vs. RHP Charlie Morton

Vasquez (2-1, 1.89 ERA) is likely in line — though not confirmed as of 11 a.m. ET — for his 4th start and 5th appearance. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 through 19 IP.

  • Last appeared in a game in a bulk-relief role Friday (3 2/3 IP, 3 H. 2 R, 1 BB, 2 K at Miami Marlins)
  • Owns a 4.76 ERA, 1.54 WHIP in 75 2/3 Triple-A innings

Morton (11-10, 3.71 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 128 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 7 BB, 4 K in a 7-0 road win vs. New York Mets Friday
  • 2023 home stats: 5-5, 3.90 ERA in 62 1/3 IP across 11 starts
  • Last 5 vs. Yankees: 1-1, 2.57 ERA in 21 IP (2019-21)
  • Walked a season-high 7 batters in his last start and owns an 8.0 BB/9 with a 5.84 ERA over his last 5 starts; his a 4.5 BB/9 for the season is his worst mark since his 2008 rookie season

Yankees at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:43 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Yankees +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Braves -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-105) | Braves -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Yankees at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Yankees 5

Moneyline

The pitching gray area should make us plenty tentative about taking a side in this one. Neither hurler has underlying indicators that match surface figures.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

With a high total and a lean to the Over, the Atlanta -1.5 (-115) action may draw some interest. However, figure enough value to the Yankee offense as to require more leverage (a price lower than -110 would make for a partial-unit play).

AVOID.

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Over/Under

Fading the pitching here and respecting the Braves’ abilities against right-handed pitching. Other available Yankee pitching options all come from the right side. The Braves own an MLB-best .836 OPS against righties.

Warm and humid conditions and a higher-elevation-than-you-think Atlanta ballpark are factors also. The last 56 Braves home games have seen the Over cash 35 times.

BACK THE OVER 10 (-105).

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New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Yankees (60-59) and Atlanta Braves (76-42) meet Tuesday as they continue a 3-game series. First pitch at Truist Park is slated for 7:20 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Atlanta leads 1-0.

The Yankees have lost 3 in a row and their last 2 may have this club at a low point for the season. Atlanta clobbered New York 11-3 in a non-competitive boat race of a series opener on Monday and the Yanks lost 8-7 at the Miami Marlins Sunday despite leading 7-1 through 7-and-a-half innings.

The Braves had 15 hits and 8 walks in Monday’s lid-lifter. They are 7-1 over its last 8 games at home. Over that stretch, Atlanta has registered a robust .409 on-base percentage.

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Yankees at Braves projected starters

RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Brad Elder

Severino (2-7, 8.06 ERA) makes his 14th start and 15th appearance. He has registered a 1.88 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 63 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 4 K in a 7-3 home loss vs. Houston Astros Aug. 4
  • Last outing: Loss, 2 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 K in relief on road vs. Chicago White Sox Wednesday
  • 2023 road stats: 0-5, 9.89 ERA in 33 2/3 IP across 7 starts and 1 relief appearance
  • Last faced the Braves in 2015
  • Has pitched 27 2/3 innings since July 1, allowing 10 HR and 13 BB

Elder (8-4, 3.64 ERA) is making his 24th start. He’s logged a 1.24 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 through 131 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 2 BB, 5 K in 7-5 road loss at Pittsburgh Pirates Thursday
  • 2023 home stats: 4-1, 3.44 ERA in 68 IP across 12 starts
  • Has never faced the Yankees as a starter
  • Has allowed 19 base runners and 12 R (10 ER) over his last 9 1/3 IP.

Yankees at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:36 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Yankees +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Braves -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-105) | Braves -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Yankees at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Yankees 5

Moneyline

These 2 starters make a plain case for laying off these 2 sides — the moneyline and run line.

The recent form — or in the case of Severino, season form — is just way out of whack for both. Betting the hitters to win in this one.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

With a high-total Over lean, the Atlanta -1.5 (-115) may draw some interest here, but there is enough pushback from a Yankee offense that owns a .786 OPS since Aug. 2.

AVOID.

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Over/Under

Fading the pitching here. Warm and humid conditions and a higher-elevation-than-you-think Atlanta ballpark are factors also. The last 55 Braves home games have seen the Over cash 34 times (+12.05 Units, 20% ROI).

Check out the FanDuel Sportsbook price as the best offering here. BACK THE OVER 10 (-122).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Yankees (60-58) and Atlanta Braves (75-42) meet Monday to open a 3-game series. First pitch at Truist Park is slated for 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting since the Yankees took 3 of 4 games in 2021

The Yankees have lost 58 games this season and perhaps the worst of those was on Sunday at the Miami Marlins when New York lost 8-7 despite having a 7-1 lead through 7-and-a-half innings.

The Braves failed to close out a 4-game sweep when they lost to the New York Mets 7-6 Sunday night. That game capped off a 6-5 road trip as Atlanta returns to its home yard for the first time since Aug. 2. The club is 6-1 over its last 7 at home, and only the Texas Rangers (40-20) and Los Angeles Dodgers (38-20) have better overall home records than the Braves.

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Yankees at Braves projected starters

RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. LHP Max Fried

Schmidt (8-6, 4.23 ERA) makes his 24th start and 25th appearance. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 115 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 5-1 road win vs. Chicago White Sox Tuesday
  • 2023 road stats: 5-1, 4.56 ERA in 49 1/3 IP across 10 starts
  • Has never faced the Braves
  • Owns a 3.67 ERA over his last 5 starts, but that figure is buoyed by a .230 batting average on balls in play (BABIP)

Fried (3-1, 2.50 ERA) is tabbed for his 8th start this season. He owns a 1.06 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 36 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 6-5 road win at Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday
  • At home: 12 2/3 IP this season; 15-8 with a 2.70 ERA since 2021
  • One career start vs. Yankees: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K
  • Making his 3rd start off a long stay on the IL (forearm)

Yankees at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:56 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Yankees +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Braves -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-105) | Braves -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Yankees at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Yankees 5

Moneyline

Plenty of juice in which to drown: PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

With a high total Over lean, the Atlanta -1.5 (-115) play is the lean here, but there is enough pushback from a Yankee offensive resurgence. New York has a .786 OPS over its last 11 games and it is a plus for New York when facing port-siders, while Fried is less-than-full strength to make that Braves return a tad short.

AVOID.

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Over/Under

Hot and humid temperatures and a higher-elevation-than-you-think Atlanta ballpark are factors here. Braves home games have hit the Over 33 times in the last 54 games (+11.05 Units, 19% ROI).

Figure the Yankees offense as being a tad undervalued by its surface numbers, and New York is swung around to the best side of its platoon numbers when facing left-handers (.778 OPS).

Recent Schmidt results may have some bettors overvaluing his effect on this total, and Fried is not at full capacity regarding his endurance. There is also some fade to the New York bullpen, a unit that has benefited from a .267 BABIP this season.

The weather forecast calls for hot and humid, breeze-blowing-out conditions.

Check out the FanDuel Sportsbook price as the best offering here. BACK THE OVER 9 (-112).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Yankees (72-52) drop by Truist Park Monday to start a two-game interleague series with the Atlanta Braves (68-56) at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Yankees vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Each team has nine of their last 10 games with all those Braves victories coming on the road, and the Yankees’ including a three-game sweep over the Boston Red Sox and two straight wins at the Chicago White Sox.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

LHP Jordan Montgomery takes the hill for the Yankees. Montgomery is 4-5 with a 3.77 ERA (119 1/3 IP, 50 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 22 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 2/3 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB and 6 K in New York’s 5-3 victory over the Boston Red Sox Tuesday.
  • 2021 road splits: 2-2 with a 4.14 ERA (63 IP, 29 ER), 1.30 WHIP and 2.9 K/BB in 12 starts.

RHP Huascar Ynoa is on the mound for the Braves. Ynoa is 4-2 with a 2.70 ERA (50 IP, 15 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in nine starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 3 H, 1 BB and 4 K in Atlanta’s 2-0 victory at the Miami Marlins Tuesday.
  • Career home splits: 3-0 with a 3.53 ERA (35 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.04 WHIP and 4.6 K/BB in six starts and three bullpen outings.

Yankees at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Yankees -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Yankees -1.5 (+145) | Braves +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Prediction

Yankees 5, Braves 3

Money line (ML)

Ynoa looked good in his first start off the IL last week, but that was against a losing Marlins team. The Yankees are white-hot. The only team playing as well as New York in the past 30 games is Atlanta.

However, the Yankees batters have a better WAR and wRC+ than the Braves this month. Also, New York’s bullpen has the best WAR, third-best xFIP and fifth-best home run per nine-inning rate in August.

Furthermore, this is a better spot for the Yankees because they have a higher road winning percentage than the Braves do at home. On top of that, Atlanta’s 22-12 record against lefty starters is misleading.

For instance, the Braves batters are 22nd in wRC+, 13th in wOBA and 12th in BB/K vs. left-handed pitching. Also, Atlanta is just 5-6 overall with a minus-10.7% return on investment in home games against lefty starters as -125 money line favorites or worse.

I know that last part was a little wordy, but what the previous statement tells us is it’s more profitable fading Atlanta at home against good teams with a lefty on the mound.

GIMME the YANKEES (-105) for 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because New York is 19-24 ATS as a home favorite and 7-8 ATS in interleague games while Atlanta is 7-3 ATS as a home underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 9.5 (-125) for a tiny wager, if at all, because I much prefer New York’s money line more than the total.

However, this is a “pros vs. joes” spot with the presumed “sharp” money favoring the Under whereas the public is betting the Over, according to Pregame.com.

But, the Over has a 31.7% ROI (13-6 O/U) with an average score of 6.2-4.4 in Atlanta’s home games against left-handed starters. I’m not stoked on an Under position in this Yankees-Braves meeting.

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