Wisconsin vs Illinois Prediction, College Basketball Game Preview

Wisconsin Badgers vs Illinois Fighting Illini prediction and college basketball game preview.

Wisconsin Badgers vs Illinois Fighting Illini prediction and college basketball game preview.


Wisconsin vs Illinois Broadcast

Date: Saturday, February 6
Game Time: 2:30 ET
Venue: State Farm Center, Champaign, IL
Network: FOX

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Wisconsin (14-5) vs Illinois (12-5) Game Preview

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Why Wisconsin Will Win

Can the Badgers put together two decent shooting games in a row, at least from the outside?

They don’t have to be lights out from the field to win games – they know hot to clamp down when they have to – but threes matter. They were dead-cold on the road against Penn State and were never in it, and then in a rematch a few days later hit half of their threes and won easily.

They have yet to lose this year when hitting 40% from three, and only lost once when hitting 33% or better – Illinois is one of the worst teams in the Big Ten at defending from three. The Illini D has allowed 40% or more from there in four of the last five games and five of the last seven.

Why Illinois Will Win

Illinois continues to be outstanding on the boards. They skewed the stats with a ton of big boarding games over the first half of the season, but they really are just that good at going to grab misses.

This isn’t a bad rebounding Badger team, but there aren’t a slew of offensive boards – which is what happens when you hit your shots – and for all of the great things the defense does, it doesn’t take the ball away. Illinois moves the ball around too well and should be able to avoid a slew of big mistakes for easy UW points.

What’s Going To Happen

Illinois will be fine at home.

Wisconsin has alternated win-loss-win-loss-win over the last five games, and again, it’s all about whether or not it’s hitting from the outside. Illinois is shooting too well, too good on the boards, and it doesn’t turn the ball over enough to give away a close fight.

Wisconsin vs Illinois Prediction, Line

Illinois 75, Wisconsin 69
Bet on college basketball with BetMGM
Illinois -4.5, o/u: 136.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3

Must See Rating: 3.5

5: Watching Super Bowl on the coach (with power nap)
1: Watching Super Bowl with other people

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Everything Illinois HC Brad Underwood said about Wisconsin basketball this week

We’re one day away from the Wisconsin Badgers visiting the Illinois Fighting Illini in a crucial Big Ten matchup for both teams

We’re one day away from the Wisconsin Badgers visiting the Illinois Fighting Illini in a crucial matchup for both teams.

Illinois is entering the game after an up-and-down couple of weeks, losing to Maryland and Ohio State in back-to-back games and then responding quickly with victories against Penn State, Iowa and Indiana

A similar story can be told about Wisconsin, as their losses against Ohio and Penn State put separation between them and the top of the Big Ten. The bounce-back ability was there, though, as the Badgers avenged their early-season loss against Maryland and recent loss against Penn State with solid wins in the respective rematches.

Related: The 2021 Big Ten men’s basketball tournament is switching locations

With Michigan sitting atop the Big Ten with an 8-1 record right now, this game is nothing short of massive for both schools with the Badgers sitting at 8-4 and Illinois at 8-3.

Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood spoke to media before Saturday’s matchup and had a lot to say about the Wisconsin team he is set to face and what challenges they bring on the court.

Here’s everything Underwood said about the Badgers:

How Wisconsin’s offense will find success against Illinois

Here is how the Badger offense will find success on Friday

Illinois head coach Lovie Smith has been preaching takeaways since his time in Tampa Bay as the linebackers coach under Tony Dungy. The Tampa-2 defense that Smith has used for the past two decades gave Wisconsin problems last year in their 24-23 loss in Champaign, so how can the Badgers bounce back from an upset and have a convincing week one performance on offense?

It all starts with taking care of the football. Smith and Illinois put their defensive emphasis on stripping the football and forcing fumbles, and it led to three Wisconsin turnovers last season in this matchup. The young, talented RB tandem of sophomores Nakia Watson and Isaac Guerendo will have to value the football above all else.

Garrett Groshek, the senior leader in the RB room, mentioned earlier this week that ball security was a point of emphasis for the Badgers. “If we are able to hold on to the ball that game probably has a different outcome,” said Groshek when referring to last year’s loss in Champaign.

While averaging 233 yards rushing as they did in 2019 is a tall task for a Badger unit that loses Jonathan Taylor, running the ball effectively against the 4-3 defense of Illinois will set the tone.

Through the air, getting Graham Mertz comfortable early will be essential in his first collegiate start. The offensive line has to do its job against a front four for Illinois that needs to get to the QB to make the Tampa-2 go. The weakness to exploit for Mertz and the Badgers is taking advantage of the middle of the field. The Tampa-2 puts stress on the middle linebacker, who is forced to make a read and drop back in coverage on passing downs in order to take away routes over the middle of the field. Quick slants and crossing routes are not only effective ways for Mertz to find his footing early, but also a way to test the Mike linebacker.

One thing that separated Wisconsin QB Jack Coan from many others in the country was his ability to take care of the ball. Just five interceptions all year from the UW signal caller helped lead the Badgers into the Big Ten championship game. A young Mertz will surely make some early mistakes, but hopefully they do not result in costly turnovers on Friday.

Another key offensively is to see who steps forward at the WR position on Friday. A position with more questions than answers at this point does have capable guys in seniors Danny Davis and Kendric Pryor, along with young talents in Chimere Dike and Taj Mustapha. The question of who becomes the favorite target of Mertz is one that could have many different answers.

Bottom Line: If Wisconsin takes care of the football on Friday and can attack over the middle in the passing game, expect a one in the win column.

How Wisconsin’s offense will find success against Illinois

Here is how the Badger offense will find success on Friday

Illinois head coach Lovie Smith has been preaching takeaways since his time in Tampa Bay as the linebackers coach under Tony Dungy. The Tampa-2 defense that Smith has used for the past two decades gave Wisconsin problems last year in their 24-23 loss in Champaign, so how can the Badgers bounce back from an upset and have a convincing week one performance on offense?

It all starts with taking care of the football. Smith and Illinois put their defensive emphasis on stripping the football and forcing fumbles, and it led to three Wisconsin turnovers last season in this matchup. The young, talented RB tandem of sophomores Nakia Watson and Isaac Guerendo will have to value the football above all else.

Garrett Groshek, the senior leader in the RB room, mentioned earlier this week that ball security was a point of emphasis for the Badgers. “If we are able to hold on to the ball that game probably has a different outcome,” said Groshek when referring to last year’s loss in Champaign.

While averaging 233 yards rushing as they did in 2019 is a tall task for a Badger unit that loses Jonathan Taylor, running the ball effectively against the 4-3 defense of Illinois will set the tone.

Through the air, getting Graham Mertz comfortable early will be essential in his first collegiate start. The offensive line has to do its job against a front four for Illinois that needs to get to the QB to make the Tampa-2 go. The weakness to exploit for Mertz and the Badgers is taking advantage of the middle of the field. The Tampa-2 puts stress on the middle linebacker, who is forced to make a read and drop back in coverage on passing downs in order to take away routes over the middle of the field. Quick slants and crossing routes are not only effective ways for Mertz to find his footing early, but also a way to test the Mike linebacker.

One thing that separated Wisconsin QB Jack Coan from many others in the country was his ability to take care of the ball. Just five interceptions all year from the UW signal caller helped lead the Badgers into the Big Ten championship game. A young Mertz will surely make some early mistakes, but hopefully they do not result in costly turnovers on Friday.

Another key offensively is to see who steps forward at the WR position on Friday. A position with more questions than answers at this point does have capable guys in seniors Danny Davis and Kendric Pryor, along with young talents in Chimere Dike and Taj Mustapha. The question of who becomes the favorite target of Mertz is one that could have many different answers.

Bottom Line: If Wisconsin takes care of the football on Friday and can attack over the middle in the passing game, expect a one in the win column.