Illinois head coach Lovie Smith has been preaching takeaways since his time in Tampa Bay as the linebackers coach under Tony Dungy. The Tampa-2 defense that Smith has used for the past two decades gave Wisconsin problems last year in their 24-23 loss in Champaign, so how can the Badgers bounce back from an upset and have a convincing week one performance on offense?
It all starts with taking care of the football. Smith and Illinois put their defensive emphasis on stripping the football and forcing fumbles, and it led to three Wisconsin turnovers last season in this matchup. The young, talented RB tandem of sophomores Nakia Watson and Isaac Guerendo will have to value the football above all else.
Garrett Groshek, the senior leader in the RB room, mentioned earlier this week that ball security was a point of emphasis for the Badgers. “If we are able to hold on to the ball that game probably has a different outcome,” said Groshek when referring to last year’s loss in Champaign.
While averaging 233 yards rushing as they did in 2019 is a tall task for a Badger unit that loses Jonathan Taylor, running the ball effectively against the 4-3 defense of Illinois will set the tone.
Through the air, getting Graham Mertz comfortable early will be essential in his first collegiate start. The offensive line has to do its job against a front four for Illinois that needs to get to the QB to make the Tampa-2 go. The weakness to exploit for Mertz and the Badgers is taking advantage of the middle of the field. The Tampa-2 puts stress on the middle linebacker, who is forced to make a read and drop back in coverage on passing downs in order to take away routes over the middle of the field. Quick slants and crossing routes are not only effective ways for Mertz to find his footing early, but also a way to test the Mike linebacker.
One thing that separated Wisconsin QB Jack Coan from many others in the country was his ability to take care of the ball. Just five interceptions all year from the UW signal caller helped lead the Badgers into the Big Ten championship game. A young Mertz will surely make some early mistakes, but hopefully they do not result in costly turnovers on Friday.
Another key offensively is to see who steps forward at the WR position on Friday. A position with more questions than answers at this point does have capable guys in seniors Danny Davis and Kendric Pryor, along with young talents in Chimere Dike and Taj Mustapha. The question of who becomes the favorite target of Mertz is one that could have many different answers.
Bottom Line: If Wisconsin takes care of the football on Friday and can attack over the middle in the passing game, expect a one in the win column.