In the end, the Packers and Jets both look like winners in the Aaron Rodgers trade. If nothing else, both are getting what they wanted.
The Green Bay Packers and New York Jets both have to be particularly pleased with the end result of the Aaron Rodgers trade saga.
The Packers are getting premium draft capital in 2023 and 2024 to help accelerate the roster rebuild around Jordan Love and getting out of a massive contractual commitment with a player no longer wanted. The quarterback- and win-starved Jets are getting the hope involved with acquiring one of the most accomplished players in the history of the game at the most important position in football to spearhead what could be a Super Bowl run for at least one year.
In the most basic evaluation of the deal, the Packers received terrific compensation for an old, expensive player who wasn’t going to play in Green Bay in 2023 under almost any circumstance, while the Jets got the proven quarterback who wants to be in New York and will likely be rejuvenated to play at a high level for a team suddenly engulfed with title aspirations.
Make no mistake: The Packers are losing an iconic player and a first-ballot Hall of Famer at quarterback, and the difficult transition to life without Rodgers is well underway. After years of spending to keep a contending roster around Rodgers, the Packers are now jerking the franchise’s wheel down another path and will inevitably suffer through the bumps and bruises that come with drastic change at such an important position. Even if Love is good, learning to win is hard. And the Packers of 2023 won’t be nearly as talented or experienced as the Packers of 2022, who went 8-9 and missed the playoffs.
But for as hard as it is to trade a player like Rodgers and slam shut the championship window, at least temporarily, the Packers must feel especially good about the compensation in the deal, considering the decision to move on was made over a month ago and compensation was the only hurdle left.
In this deal, the Packers are getting:
– A first-round pick swap, improving from No. 15 to No. 13 (value of a mid-round pick)
– Another second-round pick (No. 42)
– A conditional 2024 pick that could be a first-rounder
The Packers did not have to give up conditional 2025 picks to safeguard against Rodgers playing only one season, and the conditional pick in 2024 is based on nothing more than playing time in 2023. Per Adam Schefter, if Rodgers plays 65 percent or more of the snaps in 2023, the pick goes from a second-rounder to first-rounder. This is easily attainable if Rodgers is healthy. Even if Rodgers doesn’t play enough snaps in 2023, the Jets probably won’t be good and the second-rounder will be valuable.
Financially, the biggest goal here was not paying Rodgers’ nearly $60 million bonus. Mission accomplished. To be clear, Gutekunst fixed a problem of his own creation; the financial tie to Rodgers was massive in 2023. But the Packers general manager also structured the bonus with a window to be optioned all the way up to Week 1, giving him all the time required in the event this specific timeline played out. It was a smart addition and bought the Packers time to figure out a highly complicated trade.
From the Jets’ side, it’s hard to calculate the value of adding a quarterback of Rodgers’ caliber. This is the franchise with the longest playoff drought in American sports. The Jets haven’t been in the Super Bowl since 1969. Rodgers is hope, and hope is so powerful. Will he turn 40 in December? Yes. Did he suffer through a difficult 2022 season? Yes. But no one should be surprised if Rodgers turns back the clock and delivers a terrific season in New York in 2023. Even something close to above average quarterback play could turn the Jets into a real contender next season.
This is a win-win. The Packers are getting out of a bad deal and building for a new future. The Jets bought hope for at least one year. Evaluating the winner of the deal will take years, but the process for both sides can be easily defended. If nothing else, the Packers and Jets are both getting exactly what they wanted in the final outcome of the long-anticipated Aaron Rodgers trade.
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