The Minnesota Wild (13-11-4) visit the Tampa Bay Lightning (13-9-3) for a Thursday 7 p.m. ET tilt at Amalie Arena. We analyze the Wild-Lightning odds and lines, while providing NHL betting tips around this matchup.
Wild at Lightning: Projected starting goalies
Alex Stalock vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy
Stalock owns a .912 save percentage on the season and a 2.67 goals against average. The 32-year-old has logged a .937 SV% mark over his last two starts. On the down side, Stalock has been much better at home (.946 SV% vs. .892 SV% road).
Vasilevskiy has posted a .908 SV% with a 2.90 GAA through 18 games. That’s a would-be career-low save percentage for the netminder who registered a .923 mark over the last two seasons. Vasilevskiy has not been particularly sharp at home, and he was iffy in two starts against the Wild last season.
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Wild at Lightning: Odds, picks and betting tips
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access them at USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 2 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Minnesota 3, Tampa Bay 2
Moneyline (ML)
The Lightning snapped a three-game losing streak in their last game, a 3-2 OT win at the Nashville Predators Tuesday. All three losses were of the one-goal variety. Tampa Bay had won three in a row – outscoring foes 15-6 before the short skid.
Minnesota comes in having won four straight, including two on the road. The Wild have been on a nice scoring tear, averaging 3.4 goals per game since Nov. 19. They yield too many shots at times, but they do a credible job in an exchange of shots from the slot, a higher-percentage shooting area. With the recents, the netminders and some solid underlying fundamentals, MINNESOTA +170 is the lean here.
New to sports betting? Every $1 wagered on the Wild will profit $1.70 if they win.
Puck Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
The puck line is MINNESOTA +1.5 -154. With the above noted and the fact that Vasilevskiy hasn’t been at his best, the Wild side has some value.
The Wild have done a nice job staying out of the box of late. That’s key against a club like the Lightning, which sports a 29% success rate on power plays (33% last four home games). Minnesota is 9-9 against the puck line on the road; Tampa Bay (-1.5, +125) is 5-6 against the line at home.
Over/under (O/U)
AVOID the O/U 5.5 (-150, +125). I’m not seeing any value here. Game flow predictions could play out on the Under enough to make value hard to find even on a price change.
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