who do i start fantasy football – Page 4

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 7

Can this Colt continue to find success in Week 7, or will this trend be bucked?

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 7

Tracking my predictions: 2-4-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1

How unlucky can one get? Last week’s inclusion of Chicago Bears wideout Darnell Mooney netted 13.8 PPR points of the forecasted 20.7, so it gets chalked up as a loss. It was not only on the right track but a slight bobble at the goal line away from being within a point of the projected finish. Securing the ball a millisecond sooner would have done the job, and it truly is a game of inches at times.

While that’s two of four losses by the slimmest of margins, we don’t let it get in the way of taking calculated risks. Forward we go …

QB Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Perhaps recency bias is at play here, but these division rivals met just three weeks ago, and Ryan tossed a pair of touchdowns, one interception, and 356 yards worth of completions for 25.4 fantasy points. Since, the Colts have battled injuries in the backfield with Nyheim Hines (concussion), Jonathan Taylor (ankle), and Deon Jackson (quad) all missing varying amounts of time in the past two games.

While Hines is ready to return, and Jackson will be available if Taylor cannot go, the most successful way to attack this vulnerable defense is through the air. On the ground, running backs have averaged the third-fewest fantasy points, scoring a single touchdown in 2022 vs. Tennessee. This defense has given up an average of 44.3 PPR points per game to WRs, which is tied for the most in the league, powered by eight TD grabs on only 68 receptions. Tight ends also have found considerable success.

The Titans have surrendered at least 317 passing yards in four straight contests, and every quarterback to face Tennessee this season has tossed a pair of TD passes or more. The Washington Commanders are the only team to have yielded passing scores at a higher rate than Mike Vrabel’s squad. Just four of 180 attempts have been intercepted, and the position hasn’t rushed for any meaningful stats to skew this matchup in favor of more athletic QBs than the stationary Ryan. Four of the five outings have resulted in three or fewer sacks tallied by the Titans.

So what does that look like in fantasy? Throwing for 300 yards and two touchdowns — we’ll even include an interception based on Ryan having thrown at least one in four of six appearances as a Colt — produces 22 fantasy points. And barring unforeseen circumstances working against Indy, this should be considered Ryan’s floor.

My projection: 319 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 1 rushing yard (23.05 PPR fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 6

Year 3 hasn’t gone as planned for this promising receiver, but a turnaround awaits.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 6

Tracking my predictions: 2-3-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1

Last week’s projection of Derek Carr was 19 percent greater than the actual result, but that was still just enough to squeak inside of the threshold for a “win” … truthfully, it feels a little dirty since he was just average in relation to the field, but at least it wasn’t a total disaster of a forecast. Carr finished QB11 for the week.

For Week 6, we head to the NFC and switch the focus from quarterback to wide receiver.

WR Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders

A blossoming rookie in 2020, the Tulane speedster emerged as a legitimate threat a year ago. Through the first five games of 2022, however, it has been like we’ve witnessed an entirely different player. The Bears changed offensive systems in the offseason, and quarterback Justin Fields is the full-time starter this go-around. Some things just take time to develop, and this has the feeling of such a situation.

The results really haven’t been there, aside from a Week 2 line of 4-94-0. Mooney has not drawn more than six targets in any contest, and he failed to secure more than four balls. On the positive side, he went from five targets in total over the first two games to no fewer than five in each of the last three weeks, maintaining a 24 percent target share in that stretch.

For Washington’s side of this equation, the matchup couldn’t be much brighter. The Commanders have given up a statistical profile that pairs hand-in-glove with Mooney’s style of play. The position has averaged 15.7 yards per catch vs. Washington, which ranks second, and no defense has given up more fantasy points per reception. Allowing only the 15th-most grabs has translated to the fifth-greatest yardage total. Best of all, it has taken an average of a mere 8.9 receptions before the opposing receiver finds the end zone. Just two teams have given up more touchdowns overall and also in terms of efficiency against.

There are not too many receiving options that present such a boom-or-bust outlook, and Mooney’s season should finally start to take off vs. a defense that is handing out fantasy points like Halloween candy. With four teams on bye, including the likes of WRs Davante Adams, Robert Woods, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds, and Brandin Cooks, added gumption is necessary for lineup decisions.

My projection: 7 targets, 5 receptions, 97 yards, 1 TD (20.7 PPR fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 5

There’s much to like about this Raider being in the driver’s seat in Week 5.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 5

Tracking my predictions: 1-3-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1

Hey, look at that! Being back in the winner’s circle feels nice, but it pales in comparison to the reward that was starting Seattle Seahawks running back Rashaad Penny at Detroit Lions. The 15.9 PPR points I projected was dwarfed by his actual 28.7 results, and it hopefully propelled many of you to a fantasy victory.

The celebration is short-lived, just as quickly as we shake off bad calls around here, so let’s get after it for Week 5.

QB Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

The 0-3 Raiders were up against it heading into Week 4 and managed a victory vs. the Denver Broncos, but if this team has any chance of making the playoffs, winning this week is just as — if not more so — important.

As we saw last week, returning to the ground game was the key to Vegas’ win, and Carr was effectively irrelevant through the air. He finished with 188 yards, no touchdowns or interceptions, and added 40 rushing yards for his first sub-21-point fantasy outing of 2022.

While I fully acknowledge the driving force behind the Raiders’ Week 4 success was Josh Jacobs‘ 144 rushing yards, it won’t be so easy to just pound the rock and throw a season-low 34 times again vs. Kansas City. The Chiefs have permitted the fewest rushing yards per game to the position in 2022. Furthermore, they probably will score 30-plus points, and the Raiders will be required to respond through the air.

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KC has allowed quarterbacks to average 25.7 fantasy points per game, which is the sixth-highest figure through the first month of play. In that time, the position has thrown 10 touchdown passes — tied for the league lead — against a lonely interception and averaged 286.5 aerial yards. The Chiefs, to their credit, have opened the year facing Kyler Murray (20.6 points), Justin Herbert (28.8), Matt Ryan (19.5) and Tom Brady (31.3) — not exactly the easiest slate.

In 2021, the Chiefs blew out the Raiders in both meetings, and Carr was at least competent in each one, largely thanks to garbage-time volume. He finished with 261-2-1 and 264-1-1 — not ideal but not horrendous, either, suggesting a reasonably stable floor. Yes, the Raiders have a new, complex offense that hasn’t been fully actualized in 2022, but the weaponry is improved. Davante Adams and Darren Waller demand focused defensive attention each and every play, while Hunter Renfrow and Mack Hollins have proven to be more than capable role players. Renfrow is poised to return from missing two games with a concussion.

All things considered, the Raiders haven’t played that poorly on defense. The highest point total allowed so far is just 29 to Arizona in Week 2, and six of those were a walk-off defensive TD. The Los Angeles Chargers were held to 24 in the opener. Kansas City has scored 41 or more twice in four outings, and a far superior defense in Tampa Bay had no answers for this offense a week ago.

If the Raiders cannot get any traction on the ground early, look for the short-area passing game to become the rushing attack by proxy, and those nickels and dimes add up for real money in Carr’s final stat line. I’m banking on a combination of a poor running game and a negative game script resulting in the veteran passer cashing in his most lucrative fantasy day of the season.

My projection: 331 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 13 rushing yards (25.15 fantasy points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 4

This matchup is so ridiculously good that it would be a shame not to take advantage of it.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 4

Tracking my predictions: 0-3-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1

Here we go again … Tennessee Titans TE Austin Hooper vs. Las Vegas Raiders was last week’s choice, and it was a total flop. He played the fewest snaps of his season and finished with 19 yards on two catches while positional mate Geoff Swaim racked up 10.9 PPR points. Hooper ended up listed on Wednesday’s injury report with a neck issue, but it’s unclear if it made an impact on his role — such a thing would qualify as a “tie” under the aforementioned rules.

RB Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions

The San Diego Stater hasn’t been terrible through three starts, but Penny’s torrid pace late in 2021 seems like a distant memory at this point. Defenses aren’t afraid of quarterback Geno Smith, especially when it comes to unleashing a deep ball, which was a constant fear when facing Russell Wilson’s Seahawks.

Penny has rushed 32 times for 141 yards at a respectable clip of 4.4 yards per tote. The veteran’s talent never has been in doubt — staying on the field has been his main problem. Going forward, there’s more pressing concern that can be found in the way of rusher Kenneth Walker III. The rookie is gaining steam as he better learns the offense and also finds his way back into form following offseason hernia surgery. He popped up on Thursday’s report with a shoulder injury but was a full participant. While I prefer Walker over the course of the season, all we need here is one week of Penny leading the backfield in carries. He’s not much of a receiver, though it may not even matter with this matchup.

Detroit has given up the most fantasy points to running backs in both predominant scoring formats through three contests. Most of the success has come via touchdowns. No team has given up more in terms of the raw number (6) and also efficiency — one per every 10.5 attempts. Yardage-wise, this is the 12th-best opponent to face on the ground and No. 11 for aerial gains. Overall, this matchup is 44.2 percent better than the league average.

No single performance was greater than 18.5 points (Miles Sanders in Week 1). What stands out the most is seven of the nine backs who touched the ball even once against Detroit each scored at least 11.2 PPR points. That’s hard to reconcile. The Lions aren’t particularly good vs. the pass, either. Against most other quarterbacks I’d be inclined to say that’s a worrisome factor, but it is just not how the Smith-led Seahawks prefer to attack. There’s always the chance Detroit manages to hang some points early on and force Seattle into a pass-happy script, as we saw the ‘Hawks have to do vs. Atlanta in Week 3, though I’m not terribly confident in the Lions with D’Andre Swift (shoulder, ankle) unlikely to play and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) being iffy.

Penny should be able to do enough damage with around 15 utilizations to warrant an RB2 or flex play, depending on one’s league size.

My projection: 13 carries, 68 yards, 1 TD, 2 receptions, 11 yards (15.9 PPR)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 3

Will this veteran come to life in Week 3 thanks to a fine matchup?

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 3

Tracking my predictions: 0-2-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1

After a major swing and miss in Week 1 by counting on Aaron Rodgers, Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Allen Robinson was the choice for a shot at sweet, sweet redemption. The projection was seven targets, six receptions, 90 yards, a TD (21.0 PPR points). He was thrown to five times, landing four balls for 53 yards and a score (15.3 points) to barely fall short of the 75 percent threshold (72.9 percent) for a “win.” Robinson would have scored a second time if not for the medical “eye in the sky” intervening to end the play even though it had no bearing on him beating coverage and breaking the plane.

Nevertheless, a loss is still a loss, no matter how close he came to pulling through. Onward we go in search of our first dub of 2022!

Tennessee Titans TE Austin Hooper vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Going for broke here … in some ways, it harkens back to my offseason affinity for the former Cleveland Brown and Atlanta Falcon. Despite a sloth-like start in his new confines, Hooper is in an intriguing position to contribute this week. “Contribute” is an extremely subjective word when discussing a player with a whole two receptions in as many games.

Working in Hooper’s favor: He saw an uptick in action last week, going from one to four targets. While TE Geoff Swaim has technically started each of the first two games, Hooper has been in on at least 50 percent of the plays in each contest and saw his snap count top that of Swaim’s in Week 2.

In addition to the Titans needing to open up the passing game to help keep defenders out of the box, Hooper faces a tremendous matchup for his position. The Raiders have met Los Angeles Chargers tight end Gerald Everett (14.4 PPR) and the Arizona Cardinals’ Zach Ertz (15.5 PPR) over the first two weeks. Everett scored a touchdown to get into double figures, whereas Ertz racked up 75 yards on eight grabs. The matchup is 64 percent better than the league average so far, and both teams totaled at least six catches and 77 yards from their collection of tight ends.

The Titans may need to throw more to keep pace with the Raiders, and it’s not like the Tennessee receiving corps has been impressive through two outings. Circling back to the expectations aspect, Hooper needs to post a strong enough line to warrant a flex spot or it’s a wasted opportunity. Don’t bank on the degree of volume Ertz posted, but we can still get a playable numbers from Hooper, particularly if the Titans falter on defense.

Given his current role, no bye weeks, and few TE injuries of consequence, Hooper is more safely utilized in daily fantasy rather than redraft. It is officially time to abandon ship if he doesn’t get it going this week.

My projection: 6 targets, 5 receptions, 52 yards, 1 TD (16.2 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 2

Seeking redemption from a veteran receiver after completely whiff in Week 1.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 2

Tracking my predictions: 0-1-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1

Week’s selection of Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (projected 27.15 points) was nothing short of disastrous. Yikes. At the time of the writing, it appeared as though wide receiver Allen Lazard (ankle) wouldn’t play, which I had accounted for, but there was no clarity on the status of offensive tackles David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins — both of whom ended up being inactive. Rodgers was sluggish, Green Bay seemed unprepared for the second straight season opener, and Minnesota took full advantage of it.

Lesson learned … it’s now time to dust it off and head into Week 2 with a fresh start.

WR Allen Robinson, Los Angeles Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons

Robinson was among the top fantasy football receivers for several years prior to last season’s dismal showing, and it was easy to chalk it up to poor quarterback play in a stale offense. In fact, once Robinson inked with the Rams in the offseason, many gamers — myself included — fully embraced a rebound campaign from the 29-year-old. His redemption tour didn’t exactly get off to the best of starts with a two-target, one-catch, 12-yard showing vs. the Buffalo Bills in what became a total beatdown. Depending upon your perspective on life, Robinson playing 65 of the 67 offensive snaps is either encouraging or disturbing.

After the game, head coach Sean McVay said he needs to call plays specifically to get Robinson more involved. Wideout Ben Skowronek finished with three times the target volume as A-Rob, and while the veteran took it in stride, citing his understanding of the bigger picture, a competitor who is used to being the WR1 will use that as fuel. The problem is, though, what’s motivation worth if the ball just doesn’t come his direction?

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For starters, this week’s matchup is vastly easier. Atlanta was punched in the mouth by the New Orleans Saints’ receiving corps in Week 1, giving up the fourth-most fantasy points in both primary scoring formats. Only six teams yielded more receptions, and four defenses permitted a greater volume of yardage. A touchdown allowed every eight grabs surrendered rated as the eighth-highest frequency. All of that ineptitude was a carryover from 2021’s sixth-easiest matchup to exploit for the receiver position.

LA will come out hungry and firing shots to help ease concerns about last week’s impotent performance. All of the attention paid toward slowing Cooper Kupp favors Robinson against isolated coverage, and as long as the ball is sent his way, there’s a pretty good chance he returns WR2 value.

If Robinson doesn’t show signs of life in this one, expect a long year from the former Nittany Lion.

My projection: 7 targets, 6 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD (21.0 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 1

“Trust your studs” … what if you’re questioning whether a guy still is one?

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 1

Tracking my predictions: 0-0-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1

It’s finally here! Week 1 is a glorious time of the year. Fantasy footballers have starry eyes and hopeful hearts as everything starts fresh.

In an opening week with few injuries of consequence (shocking, I know!), streaming or a gambling on a player with a great matchup has the feel of “getting too cute” about it. There’s a fine line between taking an education chance and flippantly starting someone on a whim. Emotions run high. Competitiveness can get the best of anyone. If you’re in position to take on a calculated risk, streaming at tight end, kicker and defense tend to be the best places to start, but this week we’ll live on the edge … sort of.

I say “sort of” because the risk here isn’t so much the player as it is the situation and his position. It takes a good deal of gumption to stream a quarterback in a week without bye weeks nor injuries forcing one’s hand. It takes even more to trust one with limited weaponry.

QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

While I personally have a hard time thinking of Rodgers as a streaming option, his draft placement and a good number of questions I’ve received about starting him this week suggests John Q. Public doesn’t share my sentiment. Even our resident rankings creator, David Dorey, does not have a high opinion of A-Rod’s fantasy outlook in Week 1.

With an average draft position ranging from QB9 to QB11, Rodgers — the reigning, back-to-back league MVP, mind you — was viewed as a fringe No. 1 fantasy quarterback after the loss of star receiver Davante Adams. Green Bay cobbled together an eclectic blend of rookies and veterans in an effort to replace the now-Las Vegas Raider.

Rodgers enters the 2022 season with as much pressure his shoulders since the day he replaced Brett Favre. He has flopped in recent playoff appearances, made controversial statements on popular podcasts, was embroiled in a COVID-related scandal in 2021, wavered on returning to the team in 2020 before agreeing to return on a reworked a king’s ransom pact, and now has to put this team on his Canton-bound right shoulder with suspect targets and Super Bowl expectations.

Whew. That’s enough to make anyone wander into the jungle and take psychedelics.

From a historical perspective, Rodgers has a mixed bag statistically the Vikings with a dichotomous boom-or-bust profile. Most recently, he obliterated Minnesota in the Twin Cities to the tune of 385 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions and 21 rushing yards on his way to a 37.4-point fantasy outburst. In Week 17, playing in Green Bay, Rodgers was extremely efficient by completing 76.3 percent of his throws (29-for-38) and accounting for a modest 23.2 but serviceable fantasy points.

Go back to 2020. Rodgers shelled the Vikes for lines of 365-4-0 and 291-3-0. The prior season wasn’t filled with such success. Minnesota also boasted a much better defensive grouping from a personnel perspective, and the previous coaching staff hadn’t yet alienated its own roster into despair.

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While history can be a helpful indicator, it’s far from a guarantee to translate into the present. In 2022 present time, Minnesota has a new regime, different personnel in many regards, and renewed hope. Green Bay has two strong running backs, an injured tight end working his way back, no clear WR1, an iffy starter (Allen Lazard) trying to get right a week after being stepped on in practice, and a cast of merry misfits being asked to step up out of the gates.

It’s not all rosy this time, and I’m not here to convince you otherwise. It is, however, a storyline ripe for the picking in fantasy: Aging star quarterback in turmoil lifts his unheralded receiving corps to unforeseen levels of greatness.

That takes a leap of faith on our part and a little bit of imagination. Minnesota should be much better against the run than vs. receivers. Rodgers makes players around him better. Sammy Watkins has a history of blowing up in Week 1, and Randall Cobb has crazy chemistry with No. 12. Amari Rodgers is a year further into his maturation. Rookie deep threat Christian Watson is nearing full strength and trending in the right direction (you can’t teach his kind of speed, folks). Both reserve tight ends have been in the system for several years now, and that assumes Robert Tonyan (knee) isn’t going to play — he still has a chance. Both running backs can catch the ball and are part of the aerial game plan inside of the red zone. Rookie Romeo Doubs has drawn consistent praise all summer, including from his quarterback — a man who notoriously avoids rookies, let alone brags them up.

Minnesota is switching to a 3-4 defensive alignment, which typically takes time to translate into success. Cornerback Patrick Peterson one day will join Rodgers in the Hall of Fame, but age and injuries have taken an obvious toll on his play. A shaky third-year corner and a rookie will be asked to hold up in coverage for a defense that needs all the help it can get rushing the passer.

In many cases, Rodgers was drafted as an owner’s presumed starter, so this doesn’t apply if that’s you, but all too many gamers chose the 38-year-old in tandem with a high-upside option, such as a Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa, or Trevor Lawrence type. Some of us chose Rodgers and immediate backed him up with a safe veteran who can jump into a lineup should the star finally lose his luster or get injured. Regardless of your situation and despite the injuries as well as loss of Adams, Rodgers warrants a start with such an exploitable matchup.

My projection: 303 yards, 3 TDs, 0 interceptions (27.15 points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 18

The depleted Buccaneers have a new bright spot for gamers to gamble on in Week 18.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 18

Tracking my predictions: 8-9-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

In Week 17, Las Vegas Raiders tight end Foster Moreau was the man occupying this place, and he couldn’t have been a worse choice. He finished with a lone target, which was a nine-yard catch, against a top-three matchup for the position.

Good grief. That was easily my biggest whiff of the year, and it couldn’t have come at a worse time. I have not yet had a chance to watch every snap of that game, but I’ll go through it soon to see if I can extract anything beneficial from such an egregious miss.

With one week to go, the best I can do is get back to .500 in the accuracy column, but it’s not a total loss even if I finish 8-10, because it is, after all, an article series about gambles and not weekly lineup locks.

WR Cyril Grayson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers

In the three games in which Grayson was utilized this season, he has been highly efficient. Week 8, vs. New Orleans, Grayson took his lone target 50 yards for a touchdown.

In the most recent couple of games, the largely inexperienced receiver has capitalized on a bevy of injuries (and antics) that have opened the door for a larger role. In that time, Grayson caught nine of 11 targets for exactly 81 yards in each contest, scoring the game-winning TD vs. the New York Jets last week.

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That’s 12 total targets, 10 catches, 212 yards and a pair of scores in three appearances this year … it’s tough to ignore that kind of efficiency. On one hand, it makes him a tremendously risky recommendation, simply because of the potential for limited involvement, but if he does get his hands on the ball, Grayson has shown to be electric.

Given all of the injuries and the dismissal of Antonio Brown, Grayson should maintain more than enough involvement to make a difference in Week 18 lineups. He was looked to eight times in Week 17, partly because the Jets were ahead the entire game until the last moments. The 5-foot-9, 183-pounder from LSU should garner at least five or six targets vs. Atlanta. If the Falcons manage to replicate the scoring success of Gang Green from a week ago, that number could reasonably climb to 10.

Even if he doesn’t find the end zone, there’s a decent shot at racking up enough volume and yardage to get into double-digit scoring in point-per-reception settings. The Falcons have given up the sixth-most grabs to the position in the 2021 season, and this is the 12th-easiest team to score against from an efficiency perspective. That’s slightly deceiving since this team has given up so many catches, but the raw number is 18 touchdowns in 16 games played. Twenty-two times a receiver has scored at least 10 PPR points against the Falcons this season, and half of those performances generated at least 16 points.

Grayson can lineup inside and out, having spent just under 27 percent of his season snaps playing from the slot. He will see single coverage almost every single play, and it never hurts having that Tom Brady guy chucking the ball one’s direction.

My projection: 5 receptions, 88 yards, 1 TD (19.8 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 17

Playing this tight end fosters fantasy football success in Week 17.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 17

Tracking my predictions: 8-8-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

It hasn’t been pretty at times, but I’ve finally drawn back to even footing. Last week’s recommendation was Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins vs. the Los Angeles Rams. The projection was 25.4 points, and he finished with 21.5 for 85.6 percent accuracy. It’s hard to get excited about that one, but he met the parameters of a positive forecast.

TE Foster Moreau, Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts

Tight end Darren Waller (knee) was placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list Wednesday, and even if he’s cleared in time, there’s no guarantee he’ll return from the knee injury he suffered back on Thanksgiving Day. Furthermore, it’s unlikely Waller will have garnered enough practice time to be in game condition.

Moreau has been on the upswing the last two weeks after being a total non-factor with Waller sidelined. The lack of production was somewhat surprising since the Raiders love throwing to the position, have a clear lack of depth at wideout behind Hunter Renfrow, and Moreau’s own success in limited action leading up to this expanded opportunity suggested otherwise.

He failed to make a dent vs. Dallas, Washington and KC — all neutrally ranked vs. the position on the year. On the positive side, Moreau has posted consecutive games with 10-plus PPR points over the last two weeks. He scored three times on just 11 catches in his first five games of the year in which was targeted.

The Week 7 matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles saw Moreau fill in for an injured Waller, and the third-year tight end manged a season-high 18 PPR points on a 6-60-1 line. Philly has been the weakest defense of the position. This Sunday, Indy hosts the Raiders as both teams fight with playoff implications at stake, and fantasy footballers are faced with an extremely exploitable matchup.

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On the year, 10 different tight ends have been good for double-digit PPR results against the Colts. Indy rates as the third-weakest unit in that scoring format over the course of the season, and in the last five weeks, the same ranking holds true. Just one team has permitted more receptions per game, and only two defenses have surrendered more yards, on average, than the Colts. Through 15 games, no team has given up more yardage. While only two scores have come in the past four games, Indianapolis has conceded eight on the year.

An aspect that may work well for the Raiders is the Colts’ strength vs. running backs, which could lead to more passing to the short and intermediate areas of the field, thus favoring Moreau in PPR. Another factor could be rookie Sam Ehlinger starting at quarterback if Carson Wentz cannot clear the COVID protocols in time. Can Ehlinger sustain drive? If not, that will lead to more time of possession for Vegas.

One other element is the strength of Indy’s defense of wide receivers, which rates the second best in the last five weeks. The season-long ranking is a modest 17th, however, so matchups (HOU, NE, ARI) have played a role of late. This one matters the least to me, but it’s worth nothing.

In 2021, Moreau’s opponent has given up 33.8 percent more fantasy points than the league average. Since Week 11, the number is up to 56.6 percent, and the last three weeks have seen that figure spike to 72.9 percent. Get Moreau into PPR lineups as a great way to ring in the new year!

My projection: 6 receptions, 68 yards, 1 TD (18.8 PPR points)

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 16

It might require a Christmas miracle for this one to pay off…

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 16

Tracking my predictions: 7-8-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

Last week’s choice was Miami Dolphins wideout DeVante Parker. He finished with 16.8 of the 21.9 PPR points I forecasted, just barely sneaking in as a win at 76.7 percent of the projected total (4-68-1 as his final stat line). I’ll be the first to admit, even vs. a lousy New York Jets’ run defense, I’m still having a hard time reconciling the numbers Duke Johnson posted in that one.

Looking at Week 16, I turn to a quarterback whose fantasy football ceiling generally is low due to being mostly a game manager, but he can spin it when needed. And I’m banking on him having to do just that …

QB Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams

Normally, someone of Cousins’ status wouldn’t make the cut …. I tend to view it as being too easy of a selection, but when he’s down his top running back, may still be without one of his best receivers, and also is facing arguably the best secondary in football, things can get dicey in a hurry.

The risk here is three-fold. Just because Minnesota will be without Dalvin Cook for 10 days after he tested positive for COVID-19, it doesn’t mean the Vikes will abandon the running game. Alexander Mattison was activated from his stint on that same reserve list, and he’ll draw his fourth start of 2021. He has been rock-solid in relief of Cook thus far, and Los Angeles is best attacked on the ground.

Which brings me to the second serious concern, being the Vikings may resort to dinking and dunking their way up the field when they actually do throw the ball. In that scenario, it will take a tremendous volume of passes or serious yards after catch to make up for a lower per-attempt average from Cousins. I fear this scenario the most because of pressure from Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Leonard Floyd forcing quick throws. And there’s that Jalen Ramsey guy to worry about, too.

Finally … will Cousins have Adam Thielen (ankle) available to catch passes? Justin Jefferson is an absolutely monster, but this projection will feel much safer if the veteran wideout rejoins the fold.

What I do like: The Rams are far from bulletproof against quarterbacks, and we’ve seen several guys get into respectable fantasy territory vs. this defense in 2021.

A look at the best stat lines vs. LA this year:

Tom Brady (Week 3): 432-1-0 passing, 3-14-1 rushing (33 fantasy points)
Kyler Murray (Week 4): 268-2-0 passing, 6-39-0 rushing (25.3 points)
Davis Mills (Week 8): 310-2-1 passing, 0-0-0 rushing (23.5 points)
Aaron Rodgers (Week 12): 307-2-0 passing, 2-0-1 TD (29.4 points)
Kyler Murray (Week 14): 383-0-2 passing, 7-61-0 rushing (25.3 points)

While Cousins isn’t a threat to run it like Murray, he still has at least one rushing touchdown in each of his seasons as a full-time starter. And when your best rushing weapon isn’t on the field, it slightly improves the odds we see a short plunge from the veteran. That said, I have a fundamental grievance with projecting a rushing TD for a traditional pocket passer.

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Eight different QBs posted fewer than Carson Wentz‘s 20.1 fantasy points against this defense, which came in Week 2, and every name on that list is someone you’d expect to see, minus Russell Wilson (post-surgery).

Can Cousins get into the 20s without a rushing TD? That will be the decider in whether he can really go big against this group. It all comes down to game script. Should the high-power LA passing offense get it going early against a Minnesota defense that has been throttled through the air in 2021, my answer is a resounding “yes.” … If not, then start getting nervous. I do, however, fully expect the Rams to destroy Minnesota’s secondary, leading to increased passing by necessity from Mike Zimmer’s group.

I don’t think we’re at the point of questioning whether Cousins is a fantasy starter vs. the Rams as much as the debating, “Just how good can he be vs. this mostly scary defense?”

Presuming Thielen returns from a two-game absence, Cousins’ odds of approaching 25 fantasy points greatly improve. If not, then all bets are off. The veteran has thrown at least two touchdowns in seven straight and eight of the last nine games, including the last two without this star receiver, which is encouraging. He has topped 275 yards four times in that same window and seven times on the year. In the three games without Cook, Cousins accounted for 28.4 points against Seattle, 18.2 vs. Detroit in a game Mattison generated 28.3 PPR points of his own, and then 25.6 points against the Lions in Week 13. None of those units are in the same universe as the Rams, but Seattle is considerably better vs. the pass than the run.

Given the narrow scope of playoff teams remaining at this point, this one might be best for daily fantasy sports lineups. Cousins wasn’t drafted as a starter in most traditional leagues, so depending upon one’s options, he’s a worthwhile gamble for finishing between QB7-12 this week.

I hope Santa is good to everyone, especially when it comes to delivering a Christmas miracle in fantasy leagues. Stay safe and healthy, and if I’m wrong about Cousins, just know I’ll blame it on the eggnog!

My projection: 332 passing yards, 2 touchdown passes, 0 interceptions, 8 rushing yards (25.4 fantasy points)