Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 6

The top risers and fallers heading into Week 6.

Everyone puts considerable stock in using their early draft picks on players they’re convinced will carry a roster. However, five weeks into the 2023 season, we’ve learned that the only consistent position for fantasy scoring are the elite wide receivers.

At quarterback, the top 10 players in passing yards include a lot of players who weren’t drafted to be a QB1 – namely Kirk Cousins (2nd), C.J. Stroud (3rd), Matthew Stafford (4th), Sam Howell (6th), Brock Purdy (8th) and Jared Goff (9th). In terms of touchdown passes, the same is true with Cousins (1st), Russell Wilson (tied for 2nd), Purdy (tied for 7th), Goff (tied for 7th), Jordan Love (9th), and Stroud (10th).

A similar run of unheralded players is happening at running back. Among the top 10 rushing yardage leaders, more than half are players who weren’t drafted to be an RB1 – De’Von Achane (2nd), Zack Moss (3rd), D’Andre Swift (4th), Breece Hall (6th), David Montgomery (7th), and James Conner (8th).

The only position that has held up with the top stars dominating the top spots are wide receivers, but there are exceptions. Among the top 10 receivers in yardage, you have Puka Nacua (2nd), DJ Moore (5th), and Nico Collins (8th). In terms of receptions, there is Nacua (1st), Adam Thielen (4th), and Michael Pittman (10th).

While the star players are in lineups every week because of their ability, in the first month-plus of the season, the back-of-the-roster guys and waiver pickups are doing just as much if not more damage.

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 6

Year 3 hasn’t gone as planned for this promising receiver, but a turnaround awaits.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 6

Tracking my predictions: 2-3-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing

2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1

Last week’s projection of Derek Carr was 19 percent greater than the actual result, but that was still just enough to squeak inside of the threshold for a “win” … truthfully, it feels a little dirty since he was just average in relation to the field, but at least it wasn’t a total disaster of a forecast. Carr finished QB11 for the week.

For Week 6, we head to the NFC and switch the focus from quarterback to wide receiver.

WR Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders

A blossoming rookie in 2020, the Tulane speedster emerged as a legitimate threat a year ago. Through the first five games of 2022, however, it has been like we’ve witnessed an entirely different player. The Bears changed offensive systems in the offseason, and quarterback Justin Fields is the full-time starter this go-around. Some things just take time to develop, and this has the feeling of such a situation.

The results really haven’t been there, aside from a Week 2 line of 4-94-0. Mooney has not drawn more than six targets in any contest, and he failed to secure more than four balls. On the positive side, he went from five targets in total over the first two games to no fewer than five in each of the last three weeks, maintaining a 24 percent target share in that stretch.

For Washington’s side of this equation, the matchup couldn’t be much brighter. The Commanders have given up a statistical profile that pairs hand-in-glove with Mooney’s style of play. The position has averaged 15.7 yards per catch vs. Washington, which ranks second, and no defense has given up more fantasy points per reception. Allowing only the 15th-most grabs has translated to the fifth-greatest yardage total. Best of all, it has taken an average of a mere 8.9 receptions before the opposing receiver finds the end zone. Just two teams have given up more touchdowns overall and also in terms of efficiency against.

There are not too many receiving options that present such a boom-or-bust outlook, and Mooney’s season should finally start to take off vs. a defense that is handing out fantasy points like Halloween candy. With four teams on bye, including the likes of WRs Davante Adams, Robert Woods, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds, and Brandin Cooks, added gumption is necessary for lineup decisions.

My projection: 7 targets, 5 receptions, 97 yards, 1 TD (20.7 PPR fantasy points)

8 sleepers to play in fantasy football for Week 6

Here are eight sleepers to play in fantasy football for Week 6.

Fantasy football managers have made it through the first five weeks of the season and on top of injuries, they now have to deal with bye weeks.

Only four teams are on a bye in Week 6, but there are several fantasy-relevant players on the bench this week. This means we’ll need to find that production elsewhere. This is when those sleepers come in handy.

We will be using The Huddle’s weekly PPR projections and rankings as a reference. In order to qualify as a sleeper, we are taking a look at quarterbacks ranked outside the top 12, running backs and wide receivers ranked outside the top 24, and tight ends ranked outside the top 10.

Here are eight sleepers to play in fantasy football for Week 6:

DFS Fantasy Football: Favorite Pro Plays – Week 6

WinDailySports’ CEO Jason Mezrahi checks in with his top Week 6 DFS fantasy football for FanDuel and DraftKings

Top-ranked daily fantasy sports pro Jason Mezrahi, founder and CEO of WinDailySports.com, breaks down his favorite DFS plays at various salary ranges for Week 6 of the NFL season. We are back for another year of DFS domination and we have some new tools to take advantage of from my team over at WinDailySports.com.
 
Our projection model, lineup optimizer, and data tools have been revamped and back tested to start the season off right. So what I will do in this article is list some of our highest projected players based off raw points and our highest point-per-dollar plays based on DraftKings.com pricing. Special Huddle Member Discount: If you would like to give our membership at Win Daily a try, take advantage of a FREE 2-week promotion where you will gain an all access gold pass to our DFS package. Use promo code “thehuddle” at checkout for 2 weeks FREE for both our DFS Gold Package. Sign up now.
 
 
These are some of the players Jason will be locking in his lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel for this weekend’s slate.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

$8,300 DRAFTKINGS
$9,000 FANDUEL

Who would have thought that we would be heading into Week 6 with the Chiefs in last place in the division sitting at 2-3? If there ever was an early-season, must-win game, this is it for the Chiefs. Mahomes hasn’t been the issue as he has averaged 28.8 DraftKings points per game through five weeks. The six interceptions are a bit worrisome, but the production is still there week in, week out. The matchup is great versus Washington, somehow they went from an elite defense in 2020 to one of the worst to start the season in 2021. They are currently allowing 293 passing yards per game, and Washington ranks 20th against opposing quarterbacks. Vegas has this over set to 55.5 with the Chiefs team total set at 31. This is a pass-first offense that will be putting up points with Mahomes leading the crew. Stack up this game from both sides as we not only have one of the best offenses, but two of the worst defenses facing off in Week 6. 

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

$7,300 DRAFTKINGS
$8,000 FANDUEL

Is Herbert the best quarterback in the league right now? Do the Chargers have the best offensive weapons as a whole? These are the questions I’m starting to ask myself when watching Herbert and the Chargers. Herbert is averaging 27.2 DraftKings points per game, and there is simply nothing he can’t do on the field. He gets a juicy matchup versus the Baltimore Ravens, who are currently allowing 296.4 passing yards per game and 389.6 total yards. The Ravens won’t be able to stop Herbert and his elite counterparts. The combination of his skill set with those of Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Jared Cook by his side makes me think we can pencil in another 300-yard performance in Week 6. 

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

$6,600 DRAFTKINGS
$7,500 FANDUEL

Game script is going to be heavily weighted in Taylor’s favor in Week 6. The Colts are favored by 10 (I do like the Houston Texans to cover), which should lead to a heavy dose of Taylor in this one. Taylor has only broken 100 yards once this season with only two rushing touchdowns, but this should be a game to pad the stats. The Texans are allowing 134.8 rushing yards and 391.8 total yards per game, so the Colts should be able to put up points and present Taylor with some red-zone opportunities. Taylor may end up popular, but I like the price and floor he provides in Week 6. 

Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team

$6,500 DRAFTKINGS
$6,700 FANDUEL

The game between Kansas City and Washington has a game stack written all over it. We have two bad defenses lining up in a game that currently has a total of 55 points. The price is right on Gibson, and we want shares of the Washington offense in Week 6. Most of my lineup builds will have one to two players from both teams and Gibson lines up as one of the best landing spots. The Chiefs currently rank 29th against opposing running backs and are allowing 141 rushing yards per game. The hope is for Gibson to not only be involved in the run game but also the passing game. With the Chiefs most likely carrying the lead in the second half, if Gibson is getting targets we could see a ceiling game from him where he goes for 25-plus points. As you will read below, I also like Terry McLaurin. I will go with one or the other in a lot of my builds and will rarely lock both.

Wide receivers

Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs

$8,500 DRAFTKINGS
$8,700 FANDUEL

The role of Tyreek has been somewhat boom or bust due to his price tag. Where if you had him in Week 1 or 4 you almost guaranteed to cash and the other weeks you had an uphill climb. When the targets are there, Hill, who has a minor quad injury, knows what to do with them. He has had a 40- and 50-point game already this year through five games, and the hope is another monster coming in Week 6. The Washington Football Team ranks 31st against opposing wide receivers and 27th in total yards allowed. We are talking about one of the worst defenses in the league matching up versus one of the best offenses. This has the recipe for the Chiefs and Hill to go off in Week 6, and I don’t want to miss out. I think every team you make should have shares of this game in some capacity. This is a must-win spot, and I will be finding ways to get my Hill exposure in Week 6. 

Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team

$7,100 DRAFTKINGS
$7,400 FANDUEL

McLaurin is almost the identical play as Hill. He has had two monster and three sluggish games, but this one lines up to be a big one. Kansas City is almost as bad as the Washington defense. They rank 24th against wide receivers, allowing 296 passing yards and 437 total yards per game. If QB Taylor Heinicke can lead this offense while not turning over the ball, Washington should stay in this game long enough for most of the plays in this game to pay off. Vegas has the Chiefs winning by a touchdown in this one, which should force Washington to air it out for four quarters playing catch up. If you want to fade McLaurin, I also like Keenan Allen and DJ Moore in the same price range. 

Tight ends

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

$5,200 DRAFTKINGS
$6,300 FANDUEL

We haven’t spoken much about the Ravens and Chargers matchup, but I can easily see this game outperforming the Chiefs game. These two offenses are elite and will trade punches for four quarters. Andrews is coming off a monster Week 5 in a comeback win versus the Indianapolis Colts. Andrews had 11 receptions on 13 targets combining for 147 yards receiving and two touchdowns. While I don’t expect that output this week, I do like the price tag and floor he provides in what should be another high-scoring contest against the Chargers at home. We have a total of 51.5 with Baltimore favored by three, so this game should be high scoring and close through four quarters. If Andrews can match what David Njoku just did to this Charger defense, I’m sure we will be happy with his seven-reception, 149-yard, one-touchdown performance.

Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington Football Team

$3,000 DRAFTKINGS
$5,000 FANDUEL

With Logan Thomas out and a juicy matchup versus the Chiefs, Seals-Jones should pay off his minimum-priced salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Ricky played 82 out of the 83 snaps and that kind of time on the field will lead to production. Please look above on how bad the Chiefs defense has been. We are talking about one of the worst in the league right now in a game that currently has a total of 55 points. The Chiefs should take an early lead here, which will have Washington playing from behind and forcing them to air it out to keep pace. RSJ is a tournament-only play, which could pay off nicely in Week 6.

Good luck in Week 6, and if you ever have any questions, please hit me up on Twitter!

Jason Mezrahi has been a professional, top-ranked Daily Fantasy Player on FanDuel and DraftKings for more than eight years. He has won FanDuel’s $155,555 King of the Diamond competition and placed second in DraftKings’ Fantasy Basketball World Championship, earning him $300,000. He owns and operates WinDailySports.com, which supports the DFS and Sports Betting community with resources such as tools, projection models, expert chat, in-depth written analysis and podcasts, plus much more.

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The Huddle’s Blitzed Fantasy Football Podcast: Episode 152

Fantasy football news, assessing injured players, and talking DFS heading into Week 6.

In this episode, Steve and Harley bring you B.P.N. NFL news, breaking down the broken down, and “DFS Pay-ups, Stay-aways and Value Plays.” So Huddle up, tune in, and get Blitzed!

Or click here to listen