The 5 best NFL Week 14 prop bets

The five best NFL player prop bets to make for the upcoming week.

Week 14 is going to be a critical week to loosen the logjam of teams in playoff contention, and this week’s picks are going to be critical for each of their teams even improving or injury their playoff standing.

The picks include one of the most prolific scorers adding another touchdown, a returning superstar making his presence felt, Taylor Swift’s boyfriend having a big day, the hottest quarterback in the league cooling off, and a prodigal son coming home for some revenge.

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook

Vegas odds chart for daily fantasy football play: Week 14

A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 14 sports betting and DFS action.

A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 14.

These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.

Note: Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook

NFL Odds: Week 14

OFF = No odds currently listed.


[betwidget_betmgm]


The 5 best bets for NFL Week 14

The five smartest wagers to take to the pay window for Week 14.

As we enter the five-week finishing kick to the playoffs, there are a lot of games with huge playoff implications and this week’s picks all have a big taste of season-changing results. We have a game hitting Over, a game going Under, a home team holding serve, an up-and-coming team making a statement, and the team with the best record getting points.

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook

Betting the NFL Line: Week 14

A league-wide view into the best wagers to make for NFL Week 14 action.

When betting the Over/Under, the lines are typically set with a number at or above 40 combined points. Every week, there are a couple games at 40 points or lower. Given all the injuries to quarterbacks this season, of the 15 games played seven of them have a current O/U of 40 or fewer points.

Those games include Rams-Ravens (40 points), Buccaneers-Falcons (39.5), Panthers-Saints (37.5), Packers-Giants (36), Texans-Jets (33), Jaguars-Browns (30.5) and Patriots-Steelers (30).

The 30-point O/U is the lowest in decades and another game is just a half-point higher. This could be an epically bad week for fantasy football, but a good week for defenses.

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook

New England Patriots (+220) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-275)

This is the lowest Over/Under number since 1993 (30 points at -110 for both Over and Under). While I understand why it’s so low — the teams average fewer than 30 points a game between them — too many things have to go to script to stay under. Take Over 30 points (-110).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+115) at Atlanta Falcons (-135)

The Buccaneers are small road underdogs despite losing six of their last eight games (2.5 points at -110 for both teams). It should be noted that the two Bucs wins in that span have come against the Titans and Panthers at home. Take the Falcons and lay 2.5 points (-110).

Detroit Lions (-165) at Chicago Bears (+145)

The Lions are closing in on wrapping up the NFC North but are modest road favorites (3.5 points at +100 Lions, -120 Bears). The Bears have Justin Fields back but simply don’t score enough points to hang with the Lions for 60 minutes. David Montgomery gets 25 touches in a revenge play. Take the Lions and lay 3.5 points (+100).

Jacksonville Jaguars (+145) at Cleveland Browns (-175)

Another incredibly low Over/Under number (30.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). Both teams are on backup quarterbacks, but both have opportunistic defenses that could get a touchdown of their own along the way to help this peewee number. Take Over 30.5 points (-110).

Carolina Panthers (+185) at New Orleans Saints (-225)

The Saints are solid home favorites (5.5 points at -115 Panthers, -105 Saints). Five of Carolina’s seven road losses have been by seven points or more and the Saints are due for a make-right game that gets them back in contention in the weak NFC South. Take the Saints and lay 5.5 points (-105).

Houston Texans (-225) at New York Jets (+180)

The Texans have won four of their last five games and are solid road favorites (4 points at -110 for both). This pick isn’t so much an endorsement of the Texans as an indictment of the Jets, who have scored just 45 points in their last five games. Take the Texans and lay 4 points (-110).

Los Angeles Rams (+275) at Baltimore Ravens (-350)

The Rams have won three straight but are heavy road underdogs (7 points at -110 for both teams). While other top teams have stumbled recently, the Ravens have won six of their last seven and are coming off their bye week. Look for the Ravens to roll. Take the Ravens and lay 7 points (-110).

[lawrence-related id=485280]

Minnesota Vikings (-155) at Las Vegas Raiders (+130)

The Vikings are mild road favorites (3 points at -110 for both teams). The return of Justin Jefferson should infuse life into a Vikings team that controls its own playoff destiny and has been playing extremely well defensively over the past two months. Take the Vikings and lay 3 points (-110).

Seattle Seahawks (+400) at San Francisco 49ers (-550)

This game has a pretty high Over/Under (46.5 points at -110 for both teams). In their nine wins, the 49ers have scored 30 or more eight times and averaged 33 points. If the Niners have an “average” win, Seattle will only need to come up with 14 points to top the number. Take Over 46.5 points (-110).

Buffalo Bills (+105) at Kansas City Chiefs (-125)

So many of the projected marquee shootout games have had high Over/Unders, and this is no exception (48.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). The Chiefs aren’t an offensive juggernaut, and the Bills make too many mistakes that kill drives. Take Under 48.5 points (-110).

Denver Broncos (+120) at Los Angeles Chargers (-145)

The Over/Under here is pretty high for a divisional game (44 points at -110 for both). The Chargers have scored just 36 points in their last three games, and Denver has hit under this number in six of its last seven games. Take Under 44 points (-110).

Philadelphia Eagles (+145) at Dallas Cowboys (-175)

The Cowboys find themselves as home favorites against the No. 1 seed in the NFC (3.5 points at +100 Eagles, -120 Cowboys). The investment needs shows that this point might go higher, but the Eagles are likely to pull out all the stops after being humbled by the 49ers last week. Take the Eagles plus 3.5 points (+100).

Tennessee Titans (+575) at Miami Dolphins (-800)

I hate huge point spreads, and this is the biggest one of the week (13.5 points at -110 for both teams). The problem is six of Miami’s last seven wins have surpassed this number, and the Titans aren’t a team that is built to play from behind and be pass-heavy. If they get down double digits, things will get worse instead of better. Take the Dolphins and lay 13.5 points (-110).

Green Bay Packers (-300) at New York Giants (+240)

The Packers are big road favorites (6.5 points at -110 for both teams). That is a lot of points, but the Giants have scored 17 points or fewer in 10 of their 12 games, and there is little reason to think the Packers can’t score enough to cover this. Take the Packers and lay 6.5 points (-110).


NFL Picks: Office pool pick’em – Week 14

Use our staff’s weekly pick’em against the spread and straight up for the win.

NFL picks are provided for straight up (moneyline) and against the spread (ATS) NFL pick pools.

Each week’s spread picks are graded by the line as of when the person entered their picks. This will create situations in which a movement of the line can result in two participants having the correct pick but with different teams chosen during an individual game.

BetMGM Sportsbook $1,500 First Bet Offer!

New BetMGM customers can sign up today and get a First Bet Offer up to $1,500 using bonus code USAT. Just download the BetMGM app, deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. If your first bet loses, you will receive bonus bets in the amount of your bet (up to $1,500). Just make sure you use bonus code USAT when you sign up. Bet Now!

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. CO, DC, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, MS, NJ, NV, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY. Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA). 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Visit BetMGM.com for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in DC, New York or Ontario.

2023 Week 14 picks: moneyline & against the spread

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook


2023 Season-long rankings: moneyline


2023 Season-long rankings: ATS


NFL all-time picks leaderboard: moneyline

Moneyline DMD SG HS CC CJB HCG KH
2022 184-98-2 172-110-2 172-110-2 181-101-2 174-108-2 190-92-2 178-104-2
2021 167-104-1 159-112-1 176-95-1 175-96-1 176-95-1 174-97-1 n/a
2020 161-94-1 161-94-1 164-91-1 174-81-1 166-89-1 172-83-1 n/a
2019 162-93-1 156-99-1 161-94-1 164-91-1 157-98-1 163-92-1 n/a
2018 167-87-2 158-96-2 153-101-2 165-89-2 157-97-2 n/a n/a
2017 168-88 161-95 165-91 180-76 160-96 n/a n/a
2016 157-97-2 149-105-2 152-102-2 156-98-2 139-115-2 n/a n/a
2015 154-102 137-119 155-101 165-91 n/a n/a n/a
2014 166-89-1 158-97-1 163-92-1 177-78-1 n/a n/a n/a
2013 163-92-1 160-95-1 153-102-1 n/a n/a n/a n/a
All-time 1,649-944-11 1,571-1,022-11 1,614-979-11 1,537-801-10 1129-698-9 699-364-5 178-104-2
accuracy (63.3%) (60.3%) (61.9%) (65.5%) (61.5%) (65.4%) (62.7%)

NFL all-time picks leaderboard: ATS

ATS DMD SG HS CC CJB HCG KH
2022 136-142-6 132-148-4 143-136-5 132-150-2 145-136-3 142-134-8 127-152-4
2021 141-130-1 142-129-1 136-135-1 152-119-1 143-128-1 151-120-1 n/a
2020 118-138 122-134 129-127 130-126 143-113 130-126 n/a
2019 121-135 133-123 139-117 121-135 137-119 139-117 n/a
2018 132-124 131-125 133-123 132-124 130-126 n/a n/a
2017 129-127 136-120 132-124 136-120 131-125 n/a n/a
2016 110-146 125-131 124-132 132-124 127-129 n/a n/a
2015 125-131 121-135 123-133 141-115 n/a n/a n/a
2014 122-134 124-132 132-124 123-133 n/a n/a n/a
2013 115-136-5 119-132-5 117-134-5 n/a n/a n/a n/a
All-time 1,249-1,343-12 1,285-1,309-10 1,308-1,285-11 1,199-1,146-3 956-876-4 562-497-9 127-152-4
accuracy 48.0% 49.3% 50.2% 47.7% 52.1% 52.6% 44.9%

DMD – David Dorey, SG – Steve Gallo, HS – Harley Schultz, CC – Cletis Cutts, CJB – Cory Bonini, HCG – HC Green, KH – Kevin Hickey