Sports blog information from USA TODAY.
The top risers and fallers heading into Week 1.
During the season, we have real-time numbers to base decisions on stock rising and falling for players. Heading into Week 1, all we have to go on is where players were ranked and the investment needed to get them on rosters. Some players seem to be rated too low for their potential, while others are asking for a lot of faith that they can reach their ceiling.
For this week only, fantasy football risers and fallers are based on their ADPs and preseason rankings.
Will this once-dominant veteran return to glory in Week 1?
Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.
Tracking my predictions: 0-0-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing
2022 record: 5-12-1
2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1
We’re back for another NFL season, and attempting to shake off a 2022 slump begins with a former star receiver whose career has taken a sharp turn for the worse in recent years. This article series wasn’t designed to include household fantasy football names, but every so often an exception is granted.
The main reason for this week’s inclusion is that we haven’t seen much of note from this veteran in the last two seasons, and we’re also talking about a No. 4 fantasy receiver by draft placement.
Week 3 of the 2022 season was the last time Thomas was on the field catching passes in a meaningful game, and he wasn’t faring poorly at all in his trio of appearances last year. Thomas caught three touchdowns in that span, including two in the first outing of 2022, securing a line of 16-171-3 on 22 targets altogether. This production, while from a small sample size, extrapolates to nearly 91 receptions, 973.7 yards, and 17 touchdowns over a full season. The scoring stat is an unrealistic number to forecast over 18 weeks, but something in the realm of 90-900-10 is a viable floor this season, presuming he actually stays healthy.
Thomas will get a serious upgrade at quarterback in Derek Carr, the best signal caller with whom he has worked since Drew Brees’ retirement. At age 29, Thomas still has the skills to work over defenses with his excellent route running and elite hands, even if the injuries have robbed some athleticism.
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Receiver Chris Olave will steal his share of looks from Thomas, but that’s not all bad. No one should be banking on the 149-catch version of Thomas from 2019, and it’s pretty obvious no one is based on his ADP of WR43 this year. Having a dynamic receiver, like this second-year pro, keeps defenses from overloading Thomas’ side of the field. Tight end Juwan Johnson working the middle also presents a decision for defenders, particularly in the red zone. The last notable situation from the personnel side of the equation is no Alvin Kamara not only frees up extra targets but suggests more passing volume.
Tennessee was the worst defense against wide receivers in 2022, and it’s difficult to point to any clear upgrades that should be immediately felt in Week 1. Not only is this a tremendous matchup in point-per-reception scoring, the Titans are awfully tough vs. running backs. The latter factor implies the Saints will turn to the air more often than usual. This notion is amplified by the aforementioned loss of Kamara via suspension.
It will be fair to get worried about the now-healthy Thomas if he cannot get off to a hot start in 2023 with such a prime matchup. Even though bye weeks aren’t yet a factor and he likely wasn’t drafted to start for your team, find a way to get the veteran into PPR lineups for Sunday’s contest.
My projection: 8 targets, 6 receptions, 81 yards, 1 TD (20.1 PPR points)
“Trust your studs” … what if you’re questioning whether a guy still is one?
Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week. Be sure to check out our newest piece, Streamers of the Week, from the talented Kevin Hickey.
Tracking my predictions: 0-0-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing
2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1
It’s finally here! Week 1 is a glorious time of the year. Fantasy footballers have starry eyes and hopeful hearts as everything starts fresh.
In an opening week with few injuries of consequence (shocking, I know!), streaming or a gambling on a player with a great matchup has the feel of “getting too cute” about it. There’s a fine line between taking an education chance and flippantly starting someone on a whim. Emotions run high. Competitiveness can get the best of anyone. If you’re in position to take on a calculated risk, streaming at tight end, kicker and defense tend to be the best places to start, but this week we’ll live on the edge … sort of.
I say “sort of” because the risk here isn’t so much the player as it is the situation and his position. It takes a good deal of gumption to stream a quarterback in a week without bye weeks nor injuries forcing one’s hand. It takes even more to trust one with limited weaponry.
While I personally have a hard time thinking of Rodgers as a streaming option, his draft placement and a good number of questions I’ve received about starting him this week suggests John Q. Public doesn’t share my sentiment. Even our resident rankings creator, David Dorey, does not have a high opinion of A-Rod’s fantasy outlook in Week 1.
With an average draft position ranging from QB9 to QB11, Rodgers — the reigning, back-to-back league MVP, mind you — was viewed as a fringe No. 1 fantasy quarterback after the loss of star receiver Davante Adams. Green Bay cobbled together an eclectic blend of rookies and veterans in an effort to replace the now-Las Vegas Raider.
Rodgers enters the 2022 season with as much pressure his shoulders since the day he replaced Brett Favre. He has flopped in recent playoff appearances, made controversial statements on popular podcasts, was embroiled in a COVID-related scandal in 2021, wavered on returning to the team in 2020 before agreeing to return on a reworked a king’s ransom pact, and now has to put this team on his Canton-bound right shoulder with suspect targets and Super Bowl expectations.
Whew. That’s enough to make anyone wander into the jungle and take psychedelics.
From a historical perspective, Rodgers has a mixed bag statistically the Vikings with a dichotomous boom-or-bust profile. Most recently, he obliterated Minnesota in the Twin Cities to the tune of 385 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions and 21 rushing yards on his way to a 37.4-point fantasy outburst. In Week 17, playing in Green Bay, Rodgers was extremely efficient by completing 76.3 percent of his throws (29-for-38) and accounting for a modest 23.2 but serviceable fantasy points.
Go back to 2020. Rodgers shelled the Vikes for lines of 365-4-0 and 291-3-0. The prior season wasn’t filled with such success. Minnesota also boasted a much better defensive grouping from a personnel perspective, and the previous coaching staff hadn’t yet alienated its own roster into despair.
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While history can be a helpful indicator, it’s far from a guarantee to translate into the present. In 2022 present time, Minnesota has a new regime, different personnel in many regards, and renewed hope. Green Bay has two strong running backs, an injured tight end working his way back, no clear WR1, an iffy starter (Allen Lazard) trying to get right a week after being stepped on in practice, and a cast of merry misfits being asked to step up out of the gates.
It’s not all rosy this time, and I’m not here to convince you otherwise. It is, however, a storyline ripe for the picking in fantasy: Aging star quarterback in turmoil lifts his unheralded receiving corps to unforeseen levels of greatness.
That takes a leap of faith on our part and a little bit of imagination. Minnesota should be much better against the run than vs. receivers. Rodgers makes players around him better. Sammy Watkins has a history of blowing up in Week 1, and Randall Cobb has crazy chemistry with No. 12. Amari Rodgers is a year further into his maturation. Rookie deep threat Christian Watson is nearing full strength and trending in the right direction (you can’t teach his kind of speed, folks). Both reserve tight ends have been in the system for several years now, and that assumes Robert Tonyan (knee) isn’t going to play — he still has a chance. Both running backs can catch the ball and are part of the aerial game plan inside of the red zone. Rookie Romeo Doubs has drawn consistent praise all summer, including from his quarterback — a man who notoriously avoids rookies, let alone brags them up.
Minnesota is switching to a 3-4 defensive alignment, which typically takes time to translate into success. Cornerback Patrick Peterson one day will join Rodgers in the Hall of Fame, but age and injuries have taken an obvious toll on his play. A shaky third-year corner and a rookie will be asked to hold up in coverage for a defense that needs all the help it can get rushing the passer.
In many cases, Rodgers was drafted as an owner’s presumed starter, so this doesn’t apply if that’s you, but all too many gamers chose the 38-year-old in tandem with a high-upside option, such as a Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa, or Trevor Lawrence type. Some of us chose Rodgers and immediate backed him up with a safe veteran who can jump into a lineup should the star finally lose his luster or get injured. Regardless of your situation and despite the injuries as well as loss of Adams, Rodgers warrants a start with such an exploitable matchup.
My projection: 303 yards, 3 TDs, 0 interceptions (27.15 points)
Check out where your roster options fit into our Week 1 start/bench tiers.
Player analysis and projections can be found in our Start/Bench Tool customized to your myHuddle league scoring and rosters. All player listings by groups are in no particular order.
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Fantasy football player value trends entering Week 1.
There has been an old coaching axiom that if an offense throws too often, it’s a sign of failure – you lose more times than you win if you throw 50 times. But, we’re living in the middle of seismic shift in the NFL – a transformation by design.
Typically, the NFL didn’t change with the times. As college programs perfected “gimmick offenses” and three and four receivers became the norm, it has slowly made its way up to the NFL. Two generations into this metamorphosis, throwing 40 to 50 times a game is no longer the kiss of death.
In the first 90 years of professional football, only 15 quarterbacks attempted more than 600 passes in a season. In the last 10 seasons, the number has grown to 50 as 35 quarterbacks have thrown more than 600 passes from 2011-20. Prior to 2006, only nine quarterbacks had thrown more than 600 passes in a season. Since 2007, Drew Brees matched that total by himself, posting nine of the top 26 seasons for pass attempts, and Tom Brady has done it six times – including last year when he won the Super Bowl with Tampa Bay.
In fantasy football all that matters is scoring points, and a QB who throws a ton has value – even if he isn’t elite. The 50 guys who have thrown 600 or more passes in a season includes Joe Flacco (twice!), Jared Goff, Jameis Winston, Blake Bortles and Jay Cutler. Flacco has the same number of appearances on this list as Peyton Manning, as well as the career total of Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre combined. Finding the guy who is chucking the ball all over the yard on a weekly basis for a mediocre or bad team can be a valuable asset as a backup QB.
Here is season kickoff Fantasy Football Market Report.
Many fantasy owners hate the idea of handcuffing one of their top running backs with his backup, but injuries always happen at the position. Last year, we weren’t even a month into the season and the top two selections in most drafts and auctions (Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley) were gone.
We’ve already seen promising young players J.K. Dobbins, Travis Etienne and Cam Akers go down for the season, propping up the value of Gus Edwards, Darrell Henderson and James Robinson – all of whom proved themselves last season when pressed into duty. The hits will keep on coming, and more backups will be thrust in the limelight.
In most drafts and auctions where wide receivers and tight ends are clumped together, the TEs get the short end of the stick, being devalued when in direct draft competition with wide receivers. But, last year, there were 14 tight ends who caught 50 or more passes, including two (Darren Waller and Travis Kelce) catching more than 100 balls and three who caught nine or more touchdowns (Kelce, Waller and Robert Tonyan).
That list doesn’t include George Kittle, Rob Gronkowski, Zach Ertz, Jonnu Smith, Jack Doyle, Dallas Goedert, Austin Hooper, Cameron Brate, Kyle Rudolph and O.J. Howard – all players with 50-plus reception resumes and potential – and fourth overall draft pick Kyle Pitts. Don’t sleep on tight ends, because more than half the teams in the NFL have one (or more) capable of big things.
By all accounts, the 2021 season for the NFC West is going to be a weekly bloodbath/track meet. With four distinctly unique offenses and a recent deep playoff run for three of them, they know what it means to win often and win big. The other – Arizona – is one of the bandwagon teams people looking for a “Next Big Thing” sleeper are latching onto. All four are legitimate playoff contenders and all could end up making the postseason – thanks in part to landing the NFC North and AFC South in their non-division schedules.
There is a chance that for the first time in NFL history every team from one division makes the playoffs, which makes each game count more than most and will likely have all of them playing full-out down the stretch of the regular season … because they will have to.
Fans may have forgotten the incredible pace the Dallas offense was setting before Dak Prescott went down in Week 5 last season. Through the first four games of the season, Amari Cooper had 37 catches for 401 yards and one touchdown. CeeDee Lamb had 21 catches for 309 yards and two touchdowns.
While those numbers would have been difficult to maintain over a full season, at the quarter pole of 2020 the Dallas offense was showing no signs of slowing down. Dak is back and so are the expectations that the Cowboys offense can be the most potent in the league.
Much of the focus of the NFL world is on the shiny new quarterbacks who are going to lead the next generation of the game, but of the 10 quarterbacks that had a passer rating of 100.0 or above last season, seven of them were in their seventh NFL season or later – Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Brady, Ryan Tannehill and Derek Carr. The young guys get much of the attention, but the old guys continue to show why they’re franchise quarterbacks and that they can still get the job done at a high level.
Every year, organizations make the claim that, in a perfect world, they’re going to give their first-round rookie quarterbacks a “redshirt season,” if possible. It never happens. At some point the future becomes the present and the rookie gets thrown in. This season, teams aren’t even waiting. Jacksonville shipped out Gardner Minshew to pave the way for Trevor Lawrence. The New York Jets traded Sam Darnold to do the same for Zach Wilson. New England cut Cam Newton to anoint Mac Jones as the starter. How long do Andy Dalton and Jimmy Garoppolo have to be their respective starters? Probably until their first bad game or injury that brings the Justin Fields or Trey Lance, respectively, off the bench and allows history to repeat itself.
The defending champs have an embarrassment of riches coming back for one more title run, but in fantasy terms, they have too many quality players. Fantasy owners want a clear stud who leads his team, like Derrick Henry, Davante Adams or Travis Kelce. Those guys are dominant every week. The Bucs have too much depth at fantasy positions to make the individuals as valuable as they should be.
At running back, they have Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones and Giovani Bernard – all of whom will likely have a specific role that cuts into the others’ time.
They have All-World wide receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but you also have Antonio Brown, Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson – all of whom have carved out a role for themselves. At tight end? Gronk, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate – all of whom are strong red zone targets. There’s only one ball and too many guys who want it. Brady should be in line for big numbers again, but the rest of the fantasy position players will find a lot of competition among one another.
Baltimore has made significant investment in receivers over the last four years, using first-round draft picks on Marquise Brown and Rashod Bateman and third-round picks on Mark Andrews, Miles Boykin and Devin Duvernay. But the problem with Ravens receivers is obvious – Baltimore doesn’t throw enough. Lamar Jackson played in 15 games last year and had 376 pass attempts. Eight quarterbacks had more completions than that and several others were close.
It’s by design in Baltimore. The Ravens had the top-rated run game in the league (191.9 yards) last season and the 32nd-ranked passing attack (171.2 yards) – continuing a trend of being a dominant run offense and one of the lowest-ranked pass offenses. Jackson has a career record of 30-7 as a starter – due in large part to the Ravens’ run game. You need opportunities in fantasy football and the Ravens just don’t pass enough to make a ton of chances possible for their receivers, because the team makes its makes money running the ball.
One of the side effects of COVID-19 last season was empty stadiums. One of the great advantages a home team routinely has in the NFL was a raucous home crowd that could elicit a false start or two and generally make life miserable for a QB trying to audible out of a call. It should come as no surprise that veterans, like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson and Tom Brady, had some of the highest passer ratings of their careers. For younger QBs who posted career-best numbers, the fans are going to be back, and the decision-making process is going to be more difficult.
With the exception of expansion teams, no other team in NFL history has undergone a greater internal upheaval than the Texans. There has been so much turmoil surrounding this team, some projections say if Houston has a record of 4-13, it will be overachieving. There aren’t many times you don’t want a single player from a team on your roster. The 2021 Texans may be that team.
