Tag: Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets odds predictions pick betting line spread

Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Washington Nationals (43-59) and New York Mets (47-54) begin a 4-game series in the Big Apple on Thursday. First pitch at Citi Field is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Mets and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Nationals lead 4-3

The Nationals won 5 games on their 6-game homestand, including a 5-4 victory over the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday. They outscored opponents 38-24 over that span. Washington is 9-16 against the NL East this season.

The Mets lost to the New York Yankees 3-1 Wednesday, finishing 2-3 on a 5-game road trip. The Mets are 23-22 at Citi Field.

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Nationals at Mets projected starters

RHP Josiah Gray vs. RHP Kodai Senga

Gray (7-8, 3.45 ERA) will make his 21st start. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 112 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K in a 10-1 home victory vs. San Francisco Giants Saturday
  • Last start vs Mets: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 9 K in a 5-0 road win on April 25
  • 2023 away splits: 4-4, 2.74 ERA (69 IP, 21 ER), .251 OBA in 12 starts

Senga (7-5, 3.27 ERA) will make his 19th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 99 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 3 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 3 K in a 5-4 victory at the Boston Red Sox Friday
  • Last start vs Nationals: Loss, 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 7 K in a 4-1 road loss on April 26
  • 2023 home splits: 3-2, 2.50 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 14 ER), .177 OBA in 9 starts

Nationals at Mets odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:11 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Nationals +164 (bet $100 to win $164) | Mets -196 (bet $196 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-120) | Mets -1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +104 | U: -128)

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Nationals at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Nationals 5, Mets 4

Moneyline

BET NATIONALS (+164)

Washington has played well against the Mets and have outscored them on the season. New York has not given any reason to think they should be this big of a favorite.

Gray shut down the Mets earlier this season. He has been the Nationals best starter, which is why he was the lone representative at this year’s mid-summer classic.

This is worth a full unit bet with those juicy plus odds.

Run line/Against the spread

AVOID.

If you want to take the Nationals getting the run and a half, I’m not going to fight you, but I’d rather just take the moneyline with the better odds.

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Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-128)

Gray has an under 3.00 ERA on the road and Senga has an under 3.00 ERA at Citi Field on the season. This game will stay under 10 runs with 2 quality pitchers starting.

These 2 teams have been under this total in 4 of their last 5 meetings.

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Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Washington Nationals (9-14) wrap up a 3-game series against the New York Mets (14-11) on Thursday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Nationals lead 2-0

The Nationals defeated the Mets 4-1 on Wednesday to give them 2 straight wins to begin the series. Washington has won 4 of its last 5 contests.

The bats of the Mets continued to struggle Wednesday, mustering up just 4 hits. New York has now lost 4 straight games.

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Nationals at Mets projected starters

RHP Trevor Williams vs. LHP Joey Lucchesi

Williams (1-1, 3.38 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 through 21 1/3 IP.

  • Has allowed 2 or more ER in 3 of his first 4 starts
  • Credited with a win in only 3 of his last 13 starts dating back to last season

Lucchesi (1-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He has a 0.86 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 through 7 IP.

  • Tossed 7 scoreless IP with 4 H and 2 BB with 9 K at the San Francisco Giants Friday, his first start since 2021
  • Hasn’t allowed more than 1 ER in a start since May 3, 2021, although that’s a span of just 7 starts due to injury

Nationals at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:15 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Nationals +195 (bet $100 to win $195) | Mets -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (+100) | Mets -1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Nationals at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Nationals 3

Moneyline

PASS.

The Mets (-250) are expected to secure the victory on Thursday, but wagering on them isn’t advised as the risk isn’t worth the reward with the odds being well over -200.

Run line/Against the spread

METS -1.5 (-120) is the pick in this contest as it is hard to expect New York to get swept by Washington at home. While the Mets have struggled to generate runs in this series thus far, Williams is allowing a career-worst 13.2% barrel percentage this season.

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Over/Under

OVER 8.5 (-105) is the lean in this NL East matchup as the Nationals have scored 4-plus runs in each of the first 2 games of the series. Meanwhile, I expect the Mets to finally score a decent number of runs to finish out the series.

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Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Washington Nationals (8-14) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series against the New York Mets (14-10) on Wednesday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Nationals lead 1-0

The Nationals beat the Mets 5-0 on Tuesday with RHP Josiah Gray tossing 6 scoreless IP with 4 H with 1 BB and 9 K. Washington has won 3 of its last 4 games.

Six Mets’ batters struck out multiple times Tuesday. New York is amid a 3-game losing skid despite winning 6 of its last 10 games.

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Nationals at Mets projected starters

LHP Mackenzie Gore vs. RHP Kodai Senga

Gore (2-1, 3.43 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 6.0 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 21 IP.

  • Struck out at least 6 batters in each of his first 4 starts
  • Tallied 4 BB or more in 3 of his first 4 starts

Senga (3-0, 4.29 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 6.0 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 21 IP.

  • Issued 3 BB or more in each of his first 4 starts
  • Allowed a combined 8 ER on 12 H with 8 BB and 11 K in 9 2/3 IP in his last 2 starts.

Nationals at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Nationals +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Mets -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-115) | Mets 1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Nationals at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Nationals 3

Moneyline

PASS.

The Mets (-210) should win Wednesday, but wagering on their moneyline at the current odds isn’t worth the risk.

Run line/Against the spread

METS -1.5 (-105) has solid value as I expect New York to bounce back after Tuesday’s shutout loss. The Mets have hit 12 HRs against LHP this season, which is the 3rd most in baseball.

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Over/Under

LEAN OVER 8 (-120).

Even though both Gore and Senga have been solid to start the season, walks could be an issue in Wednesday’s NL East showdown. The Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these teams and 7-3-1 in their last 11 meetings in New York.

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Washington Nationals at New York Mets Game 2 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets Game 2 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (55-104) and New York Mets (98-61) play the second game of a 3-game set as part of a doubleheader Tuesday at Citi Field. Game 2 is expected to begin around approximately 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Mets Game 2 odds with MLB picks and predictions.

(Stats and records don’t include the first game of Tuesday’s doubleheader)

Season series: Mets lead 11-5

The series opener was postponed Monday due to rain and will be made up as part of a doubleheader Tuesday.

The Nationals dropped 3 of 4 games vs. the Philadelphia Phillies after a rain-shortened 8-1 loss at home Sunday.

Washington is 3-7 in its last 10 games.

The Mets still have a slim chance to win the NL East after getting swept in a 3-game series at the Atlanta Braves over the weekend. New York’s sole path to the division is a 3-game sweep of the Nationals coupled with a Miami Marlins sweep over the Braves.

Mets 2B Jeff McNeil is batting .326 on the season, 1 point ahead of Los Angeles Dodgers 1B Freddie Freeman for the MLB lead.

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Nationals at Mets Game 2 projected starters

RHP Paolo Espino vs. RHP Taijuan Walker

Espino (0-8, 4.30 ERA) makes his 19th start and 42nd appearance. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 113 IP.

  • Last start: Loss vs. the Atlanta Braves last Tuesday with 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 5 K
  • 2022 vs. the Mets: 0-0 with a 1.42 ERA (6 1/3 IP, 1 ER) in 3 relief appearances

Walker (12-5, 3.59 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 153 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision vs. the Marlins Wednesday with 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 8 K
  • Last start vs. the Nationals: Win on the road May 12 with 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 1 K

Nationals at Mets Game 2 odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Nationals +215 (bet $100 to win $215) | Mets -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-101) | Mets -1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -101 | U: -120)

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Nationals at Mets Game 2 picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Nationals 1

Moneyline

PASS.

The price on Mets (-280) moneyline is a bit steep. Bet on the run line or the total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

BET METS -1.5 (120).

The Mets should have no problem winning by margin vs. the league-worst Washington Nationals. Six of New York’s last 7 wins have been by multiple runs.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-120).

The Under is 5-0-1 in Washington’s last 6 road games and the Nationals are bottom-10 in MLB in runs per game on the road (3.87). Washington’s inability to manufacture runs away from home should help this game go Under the total.

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Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (55-104) begin a 3-game series with the New York Mets (98-61) to conclude the season Monday at Citi Field. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Mets lead 11-5

The Nationals have had a forgettable season in 2022. Washington has lost 7 of its last 10 games, though they could hurt the chances of New York winning the NL East with a win Monday.

The Mets had an opportunity to extend their lead in the NL East in their most recent 3-game series against the Atlanta Braves, only to get swept. If the season were to end right now, New York would be 2 games back from Atlanta in the NL East and would have the No. 1 wild-card spot in the NL.

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Nationals at Mets projected starters

RHP Cory Abbott vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco

Abbott (0-4, 5.11 ERA) makes his 9th start and 16th appearance. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 44 IP.

  • Has given up 4 ER in each of his last 2 starts
  • Aug. 2 vs. Mets: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Carrasco (15-7, 3.95 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 148 IP.

  • Has given up 7 runs over 7 innings across his last 2 starts
  • Sept. 4 vs. Nationals: 2 2/3 IP, 6 H, 5 R (1 ER), 2 BB, 2 K

Nationals at Mets odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:53 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Nationals +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Mets -320 (bet $320 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (+110) | Mets (-135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Nationals at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Nationals 3

Moneyline

Go ahead and PASS on the moneyline in this game as the Mets are heavy favorites at home. Taking New York straight up doesn’t make sense given the team’s current odds to win.

Run line/Against the spread

METS -1.5 (-135) seems to be the ideal run-line wager in this game as New York is desperate to win the rest of its games in hopes to reclaim the top spot in the NL East. The Mets also have a massive advantage on the mound and the Nationals don’t have anything to play for as they conclude the season.

In the previous 16 meetings between the Nationals and the Mets this season, the winner of each game has won by multiple runs.

Over/Under

The Under is 5-1 in the Nationals’ last 6 road games and 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter; the Mets have hit the Over in 6 of their last 7 games.

Give me OVER 7.5 RUNS (-107) as New York should be able to score a decent number of runs with Abbott on the mound.

The Over is 9-0 in Carrasco’s last 9 starts in the first game of a season series. On top of that, the Over is 5-2-1 in the previous 8 meetings between the Nationals and the Mets in New York.

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Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (45-87) take on the New York Mets (85-48) in the second game of a 3-game series Saturday. First pitch from Citi Field is at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Mets lead 11-3

The Nationals enter Saturday’s NL East showdown having lost 4 of their last 7 games, including Friday’s series opener. RHP Josiah Gray struggled for Washington Friday as he gave up 6 ER on 6 H and 4 BB with just 2 K across 5 IP.

The Mets remain one of the best teams in baseball and have won 6 of their last 8 contests. New York owns the 2nd-best record in the NL while they sit atop the NL East with a 3-game lead over the Atlanta Braves.

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Nationals at Mets projected starters

LHP Patrick Corbin vs. RHP Max Scherzer

Corbin (5-17, 6.56 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.76 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 127 2/3 IP.

  • Last 10 starts: 46 IP, 1-7 record, 7.43 ERA, 71 H, 15 BB, 10 HR, 38 K
  • Aug. 1 vs. Mets: 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 K

Scherzer (9-4, 2.27 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 0.93 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 through 122 2/3 IP.

  • Has pitched 6 or more innings in 14 of his last 15 starts
  • Aug. 1 at Nationals: 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K

Nationals at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:25 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Nationals +330 (bet $100 to win $330) | Mets -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +2.5 (-115) | Mets -2.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Nationals at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 9, Nationals 2

Money line

AVOID wagering on the money line in this game as while the Mets (-450) should have no issues taking care of the Nationals at home, it’s not worth taking their money line straight up.

Run line/Against the spread

Some people may refrain from taking teams that have -2.5 run spreads, but METS -2.5 (-105) is an intriguing bet. The Nationals have been outscored 17-3 in Corbin’s last 2 starts vs. the Mets.

For those that don’t want to take the -2.5 spread for the entire game, METS -1.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS (-113) is a nice alternative.

Over/Under

All signs point toward the Under being the play in this game. However, we saw 10 runs scored in the last meeting between Corbin and Scherzer back on Aug. 1. So give me OVER 7.5 (+100) as the Mets could produce 8 or more runs single-handedly against the shaky southpaw.

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Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions

The Washington Nationals (18-32) and New York Mets (33-17) meet Tuesday for the second game of a 3-game set at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: The Mets won the series opener Monday by a 13-5 count, running their record to 6-2 in 8 meetings with the Nationals this season.

The Nationals dropped the series opener and are just 2-6 in their last 8 road games.

The Mets have averaged 8.5 runs per game across a 4-game win streak. New York has scored 8 or more runs in 5 of their last 7 outings.

Nationals at Mets projected starters

LHP Patrick Corbin vs. RHP Trevor Williams

Corbin (1-7, 6.30 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.66 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 50 IP.

  • Posted just his 3rd quality start in 10 outings last time out in a win against the Colorado Rockies Thursday, allowing 3 runs in 6.1 IP.
  • Is a dismal 0-3 with a 6.86 ERA and .312 opponent batting average through 21 IP over 4 road outings.

Williams (0-3, 4.37 ERA) makes his 4th start and 9th appearance. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 22 2/3 IP.

  • Has allowed 2 unearned runs on 4 hits and a walk with 2 strikeouts across 4 2/3 IP across two relief appearances against the Nationals this season.
  • Is 0-0 with a 3.24 ERA in 1 start and 2 relief appearances while striking out 13 batters across 8 1/3 IP at home.

Nationals at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:56 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Nationals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Mets -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-135) | Mets -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Nationals at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 7, Nationals 4

Money line

The Mets (-180) are a little too pricey for my liking straight up. It’s a little difficult to trust Williams, although Corbin has won just one time for the Nationals, and overall the 32-year-old has looked really lost this season.

PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread

The METS -1.5 (+110) are a little better of a value on the run line. New York’s bats came alive with a 13-5 pounding of Washington in the series opener Monday.

That’s now 4 wins in a row for the Mets and 6 straight victories at home. Three of the 4 straight victories have been by 3 or more runs, and the average margin of victory is 4.3 runs per outing during the 4-game streak.

Over/Under

The OVER 9.5 (+105) is the lean, and it’s a little surprising to see plus-money. The Mets have cashed in the Over in 7 straight outings, while the Nats have cashed the Over in 4 of their last 5 contests and 7 of their last 9.

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Washington Nationals at New York Mets Game 1 odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets Game 1 odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (50-63) and New York Mets (57-55) got in one game Wednesday, a come from behind 8-7 victory for the Mets, however the nightcap was rained out so now the teams will play a doubleheader Thursday. First pitch for Game 1 is set for 12:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Nationals are calling on LHP Sean Nolin (0-0, 0.00 ERA) to make his first major league appearance since 2015. He made six starts that season for Oakland and recorded a 5.28 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 4.7 K/9 in 29 IP.

  • Nolin has a 3.80 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 across 47 1/3 IP in nine starts and two relief appearances at Triple-A this season.
  • The 31-year-old has just eight big league appearances to his name and has compiled a 6.89 ERA and a poor 15/13 K/BB in 31 1/3 IP.

Mets RHP Marcus Stroman (7-11, 2.83 ERA) makes his 25th start of the season. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 127 1/3 IP.

  • Stroman has made 12 starts at home this season, where he has recorded a 3.07 ERA and 7.6 K/9 across 55 2/3 IP.
  • Though he lacks dominant stuff, Stroman does a great job of limiting walks and keeping the ball in the park. He has surrendered just 5 walks and 3 homers in 38 2/3 IP over his past seven starts.

Nationals at Mets Game 1 odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Mets -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-135) | Mets -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Prediction

Mets 5, Nationals 3

Money line (ML)

Both teams have struggled lately with the Nationals losing seven of their last eight games and the Mets seven of their last nine.

New York comes into the game with a 34-20 record at home, while Washington has struggled to a 21-33 record on the road.

Even so, the line here is pretty steep, so PASS on the money line. 

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Mets have the clear pitching edge in this matchup. Stroman carries a sub-3.00 ERA and the ability to chew up innings while Nolin hasn’t appeared in the majors in six years and has never had success at the highest level.

New York’s offense hasn’t been great lately, as yesterday’s game marked the first time since July 21st it scored more than 5 runs in a game. However, the Mets are in a great spot today against Nolin and a suspect relief corps that will back him up.

Side with the METS -1.5 (+110) as they should do enough to win by more than a single run.

Over/Under (O/U)

The total has gone over in nine of the last 10 for Washington, thanks in large part to their poor pitching that has allowed 6.2 runs per game during that time.

There’s a good chance we see another rough outing on the mound from the Nationals today. Even in a seven-inning game, this total is too low so take OVER 6.5 (-108).

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Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (50-62) stop by Citi Field Tuesday to start a three-game series with the New York Mets (56-55) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Nationals lead 5-3.

RHP Paolo Espino takes the mound for the Nationals. Espino is 3-3 with a 3.66 ERA (66 1/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in nine starts and 16 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Loss, 9-5, with 5 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 3 K against the Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday.
  • 2021 road splits: 0-0 with a 4.71 ERA (21 IP, 11 ER), 1.19 WHIP and 4.3 K/BB in two starts and 10 bullpen outings.

RHP Carlos Carrasco makes his third start for the Mets. Carrasco is 0-0 with a 3.24 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 8 H, 1 BB and 9 K this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 5 K in New York’s 5-3 win at the Miami Marlins Wednesday.

Nationals at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:10 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Mets -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-112) | Mets -1.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Prediction

Mets 6, Nationals 2

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Mets (-250) since they are obviously the right side because New York is 12 games above .500 against righty starters and 13 games above .500 at home.

Furthermore, there’s no way I can risk two-and-a-half times my potential return on a Mets team that’s in the midst of a freefall.

New York is 2-8 in the last 10 games, 7-13 in the past 20, and has fallen 2.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies for first place in the NL East.

It would appear this is your typically cursed Mets season but since Carrasco is in his first season in New York maybe he hasn’t gotten the memo.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the METS -1.5 (-108) for a tiny wager because New York has an edge in the three most important phases of the game (bullpen, starting pitching and hitting) and is obviously a better price point.

Washington also moved several quality bullpen arms at the trade deadline. Not so coincidently, the Nationals bullpen has the third-most blown saves, second-worst SIERA, second-worst xFIP and second-worst K-BB% since the trade deadline.

It’s only a “lean” because despite New York being buyers at the trade deadline and Washington sellers, the Mets lineup has been much worse than the Nationals since then.

Also, New York has the fourth-worst cover rate against divisional foes at 19-30 ATS and is 13-28 ATS as a home favorite whereas Washington is 21-19 ATS as a road underdog.

For instance, Washington is middle of the pack in hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA and WAR while New York ranks in the bottom 6 in each of those categories since the trade deadline.

That said, the Mets’ lineup has a lot more talent and has the third-highest BB/K rate in the second half of the season, which really helps against a Washington pitching staff that’s lost the plate since the All-Star Game.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-115) because the market is barreling into the Over yet we have a “line freeze” and if anything the total is moving in the opposite direction.

According to Pregame.com, more than 90% of the cash wagered is on the Over but the total is still at the 8.50-run opener and the Under is juiced heavier.

The reason for this live movement, or lack thereof, could be the Mets playing in the highest rate of Unders in divisional games and the Nationals playing to the Under at the third-highest rate against NL East foes. And again, both lineups have been terrible this month.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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