Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs odds predictions pick betting line spread

Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Chicago Cubs (77-75) welcome the Washington Nationals (68-84) to Wrigley Field Thursday to open a 4-game series. First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Nationals vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cubs lead 3-0

The Cubs are coming off a 2-1 series loss to the Oakland A’s. They lost 5-3 Wednesday, dropping their 2nd straight game. Chicago had also lost 2 of 3 games at the Colorado Rockies Friday through Sunday. It is 5-7 over its last 12 games and 39-35 at home this season. Chicago is 72-80 against the spread (ATS).

The Nationals, who are 32-45 on the road this season, were swept in 3 games at the New York Mets. After losing 10-1 Tuesday, they lost the Wednesday finale 10-0. Washington is 4-4 over its last 8 games, though. It is 83-69 ATS on the season.

Nationals at Cubs projected starters

LHP Patrick Corbin vs. RHP Javier Assad

Corbin (6-13, 5.45 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 165 innings.

Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 4-1 home victory over Miami Marlins Saturday
2024 away stats: 2-8, 6.58 ERA (79 1/3 IP, 58 ER), 1.74 WHIP, 6.7 K/9 in 15 starts
Career vs. Cubs: 5-2, 4.09 ERA (66 IP, 30 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in 12 appearances (11 starts)

Assad (7-5, 3.27 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 137 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 9-5 road loss to Rockies Friday
2024 home stats: 3-2, 2.24 ERA (64 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 in 13 starts
Career vs. Nationals: 1-0, 2.45 ERA (11 IP, 3 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 4.1 K/9 in 2 appearances (1 start)

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Nationals at Cubs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 1:40 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Nationals +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Cubs -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Nationals +1.5 (-135) | Cubs -1.5 (+110)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Nationals at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 6, Nationals 3

Moneyline

PASS.

There’s no great value here. The Cubs (-190) are rightfully expensive home favorites, especially with Assad on the mound. They aren’t worth a play to win outright, though.

Run line/Against the spread

BET CUBS -1.5 (+110).

The Cubs offense has been far more consistent over the last few weeks, and Chicago has the better pitcher on the mound Thursday.

Corbin has been awful on the road this season, and the Nationals have been outscored 22-2 in their last 3 games. Even in their last 9, they have been outscored 46-22. Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games as an underdog.

With Chicago having scored at least 3 runs in 9 straight games, expect it to get on the board enough to cover.

Take CUBS -1.5 (+110).

Over/Under

BET OVER 8.5 (-110).

The Cubs have gone Over in 2 of their last 3 games and 7 of their last 9. They have also scored at least 5 runs in 7 of 9 games and allowed at least 4 in 5 of their last 7.

Washington has gone Over in back-to-back games. Given those trends, especially for the Nationals’ defense, take OVER 8.5 (-110).

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Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Washington Nationals (37-56) and Chicago Cubs (43-49) open up a 3-game set at Wrigley Field Monday. First pitch is at 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Nationals lead 3-1

The Nats have played a bit better of late, though they’re 3-7 over the last 10. They have 9 wins in their last 20 games. SS CJ Abrams has came out of the All-Star break raking, going 6-for-13 (.462), with 3 extra-base hits and 2 steals.

The Cubs have been stuck in neutral, unable to string wins together. They’re 5-5 and 9-11 over the last 10 and 20 games, respectively, and have fallen 8 games out of the NL Central. This will be a big week in determining their course of action for the trade deadline with a 7-game homestand against the Nats and St. Louis Cardinals.

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Nationals at Cubs projected starters

LHP MacKenzie Gore vs. LHP Drew Smyly

Gore (4-7, 4.42 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 89 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 1 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 1 K – in a rain-shortened appearance against the Cincinnati Reds on July 6
2 career starts vs. Cubs: 0-2, 7.00 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 10 K in 9 IP

Smyly (7-6, 4.31 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 94 innings.

Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 3 K against New York Yankees July 8
Last 5 starts vs. Nationals: 2-0, 3.04 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 20 K in 26 2/3 IP

Nationals at Cubs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:08 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Nationals +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Cubs -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-175) | Cubs -1.5 (+145)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Nationals at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 5, Nationals 3

Moneyline

The Cubs are much better against left-handed pitchers than the Nats. Chicago is 16-11 against southpaws, and the Nats are just 11-24. Add in that Smyly has given up just 9 ER in 26 2/3 innings over his last 5 starts against Washington, and we have a heavy lean to Chicago.

Gore had his worst start of the year two starts back, his last start was cut short due to rain, and the All-Star break came after. So he has really only pitched 4 innings in 3 weeks.

Take the CUBS (-140).

Run line/Against the spread

Half of the last 10 games between the sides have been decided by 1 run. I don’t trust the Nats enough to pay -175 for them to keep it close, though.

So one prop that has some traction is Smyly’s K’s. He has only struck out 5 batters once in his last 8 starts and only did it once in his last 5 against the Nationals. I’ll take DREW SMYLY UNDER 4.5 K’S (-135).

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Over/Under

The Over is 4-6 in this matchup over the last 10 games. We haven’t seen 8 runs in a contest between these clubs this year or in their last 5 meetings overall. The only worry that I have is that Smyly has given up 14 ER in 11 1/3 IP over his last 3 starts, and Gore could be rusty from throwing 4 innings in 3 weeks. There also could be a light breeze blowing out at Wrigley.

I’m going to PASS.

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Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (36-75) and Chicago Cubs (44-64) meet Tuesday at 8:05 p.m. ET for the middle contest of a 3-game series at Wrigley Field. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Cubs lead 1-0

Washington was doubled up 6-3 in Monday’s series opener and has been outscored 51-20 while losing 6 straight games. The Nats are just 7-27 with a bloated 5.94 ERA in their last 34 games.

Chicago has played well at home lately. The Cubs own a 1.39 ERA and a 6-3 record over their last 9 games at Wrigley Field.

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Nationals at Cubs projected starters

RHP Paolo Espino vs. RHP Marcus Stroman

Espino (0-4, 4.20 ERA) has appeared in 30 games and made 10 starts. He owns a 1.27 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 70 2/3 IP.

Owns a 5.52 ERA and 1.43 WHIP as a starter vs. a 2.03 ERA and 1.01 WHIP as a relief pitcher.
Roughed up for 5 runs on 7 hits over 4 innings in his last start at the Philadelphia Phillies Thursday.

Stroman (3-5, 4.00 ERA) is making his 15th start of the season. He has registered a 1.14 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 through 74 1/3 IP.

Owns a 1.67 ERA and 1.00 WHIP since returning from the IL (shoulder) July 9.
Owns a 7.94 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home albeit in the small sample size of 22 2/3 IP.

Nationals at Cubs odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:45 a.m. ET.

Money line: Nationals +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Cubs -205 (bet $205 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-130) | Cubs -1.5 (+105)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Nationals at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 5, Nationals 3

Money line

Over his recent stretch of success, Stroman has induced a lot more ground balls (51.6% last 30 days) while pounding the strike zone with first-pitch strikes. The Cubs’ righty has faced all top-end offensive clubs over his 5-game surge and he draws a Nationals foe Tuesday which is anything but.

The Cubs are playing well at home and have an edge in the starter matchup and bullpen are a decent play up to -195. Otherwise, STEER CLEAR.

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Run line/Against the spread

The Nats play in a below-average number of 1-run games.

BACK THE CUBS -1.5 (+105).

Over/Under

Both offenses have some growth potential in run scoring based on their quality of contact and support analytics. However, Tuesday’s weather report featuring an inbound breeze and the Stroman half of the starting mound equation work against that Over lean.

PASS.

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Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (36-74) and Chicago Cubs (43-64) meet Monday at 8:05 p.m. ET to launch a 3-game series at Wrigley Field. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: First meeting; Cubs won 4 of 7 from the Nationals in 2021

The Nationals have struggled mightily of late. Washington has been outscored 45-17 in losing 5 straight games. The Nats are just 7-26 with a bloated 5.92 ERA in their last 33 games.

The Cubs got off to a good start in the 2nd half, but they head into this game coming off a 3-0 Sunday loss and a 2-6 mark in their last 8 games. Chicago has played well at home lately. The Cubs own a 2.77 ERA and an 11-9 record in their last 20 games at Wrigley.

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Nationals at Cubs projected starters

RHP Anibal Sanchez vs. RHP Keegan Thompson

Sanchez (0-4, 7.65 ERA) is making his 5th start after missing all of 2021 and the front half of this season with a neck injury. He has a 1.50 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 20 IP.

Owns a 3.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP in 6 career starts at Wrigley Field
Has allowed a career home-runs-per-9 rate of 1.06, but early on has coughed up 2.70 HR/9 in 2022.

Thompson (8-5, 3.48 ERA) has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 93 IP in 22 games (14 as a starter).

Has appeared in 20 career games as a starter, posting a 4.54 ERA on an .810 OPS allowed. Has logged 34 games in relief, notching a 2.00 ERA on a .620 OPS.
Allowed 5 runs on 10 hits over 4 2/3 IP in his last start Tuesday at the St. Louis Cardinals).

Nationals at Cubs odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:04 p.m. ET.

Money line: Nationals +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Cubs -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-130) | Cubs -1.5 (+105)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

Nationals at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 6, Nationals 3

Money line

The Cubs (playing well at home, starter matchup, bullpen) are a lean, but look for a price of -185 or better.

Otherwise, STEER CLEAR.

Run line/Against the spread

Washington is 1-9 across its last 10 series openers. The 9 losses have been by a combined 49 runs. And overall, the Nats play in few 1-run games.

The run line play on the home 9 is worth half a unit. BACK THE CUBS -1.5 (+105).

Over/Under

A cooled-off inward breeze is tamping this total down, but the price on the OVER 7.5 (-120) is workable.

Both offenses have some growth potential in run scoring based on their quality of contact and support analytics.

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Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (17-22) and Chicago Cubs (21-21) meet for a Thursday matinee (2:20 p.m. ET) to close out a four-game series at Wrigley Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Joe Ross is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals. Ross is 2-3 with a 5.80 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, and 4.3 BB/9 in 35 2/3 IP over 7 starts.

The Nats right-hander is looking to bounce back from a shaky four-frame outing against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday (8 runs allowed on 8 hits and 3 walks).

RHP Trevor Williams is the projected starter for the Cubs. He is 2-2 with a 6.27 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, and 4.9 BB/9 in 33 IP over 8 starts.

Like Ross, Williams is also looking to rebound from an iffy start in his last. He was pulled after 2 IP in Detroit on Saturday. He has allowed 11 runs in his last 8 2/3 IP. Albeit in a small dose, current Washington bats own a .996 OPS against Williams.

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Nationals at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.

Money line: Nationals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Cubs -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-185) | Cubs -1.5 (+150)
Over/Under: 10 ( O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Nationals 5, Cubs 4

Money line (ML)

The Cubs took the first two games of the series by scores of 7-3 and 6-3. Washington battled back with a 4-3 win on Wednesday.

The Nats offense has performed well on the road with a high-contact .729 OPS and overall has Statcast figures that tell the story of a team hitting the ball better than the production shows in the scoring column. The Cubs’ Statcast numbers swing the other way.

Add in a strength-of-schedule component that calls for a Chicago fade. BACK WASHINGTON (+105).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on a juice-drowned run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Over has gotten some attention early with lesser starters on the bump and with a 12-mile-an-hour breeze out to left in the weather forecast.

But a bit more respect for the starters than what shows in surface stats, Chicago’s quality bullpen (and one that generates a lot of ground balls), and the state of Major League Baseball in 2021 make for some contrarian bent here.

TAKE the UNDER 10 (-105).

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