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The Washington Nationals (38-39) open the 2nd series of their 9-game road trip Monday with the first of 3 games at the San Diego Padres (41-41). First pitch from Petco Park is at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2024; tied 3-3 in 2023
The Nationals are coming off a series win over the Colorado Rockies, taking Sunday’s finale 2-1 as -127 favorites with the Under (10.5) easily cashing. SP Jake Irvin worked 6 innings of 3-hit ball and 3 relievers kept the Rockies off the board the rest of the way as Washington improved to 11-4 in its last 15 games.
The Padres took 3 of 4 games at home against the Milwaukee Brewers but lost the finale Sunday 6-2, snapping a 4-game winning streak. The Padres were -131 favorites and the Over (7.5) snuck in as a winner.
Nationals at Padres projected starters
LHP Patrick Corbin vs. RHP Matt Waldron
Corbin (1-7, 5.60 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 through 82 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 3-1 home win over Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday
- Nationals 1-6 in his last 7 starts
- Career vs. Padres: 7-11, 4.80 ERA (120 IP, 64 ER), 1.500 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 in 24 games (19 starts)
Waldron (5-6, 3.46 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 through 83 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 5-2 road victory over Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday
- Eight consecutive starts allowing 2 or fewer runs
- Career vs. Nationals: 1 start in 2023, loss, 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 2-0 home setback
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Nationals at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:28 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Nationals +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Padres -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-125) | Padres -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Nationals at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Nationals 4
Moneyline
The Nationals (+170) have been playing well, winning 11 of their last 15 games. They are 21-20 on the road, while the Padres are 21-21 at home and have lost 6 of their last 10 games overall.
But Waldron has been very solid with a 1.82 ERA (49 1/3 IP, 10 ER) over his last 8 starts, never allowing more than 2 runs.
The Nationals are 5-10 when Corbin pitches and 1-6 in his last 7 starts.
The Padres (-210) should win the opener but don’t bet them at this price, having to wager more than twice what you can win.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The Nationals are 26-15 ATS on the road this season, the 2nd-best mark in the league — the Cincinnati Reds are 1st at 21-13 — while the Padres are 16-26 ATS at home.
Washington is also 39-24 ATS as an underdog; San Diego is 18-29 ATS as a favorite. Sounds like a scenario for a 1-run game that the Padres win.
BET NATIONALS +1.5 (-125).
Over/Under
The Padres’ last 4 games and 6 of their last 8 have had totals of 8 or more runs.
Five of Corbin’s last 6 starts have had 8 or more total runs.
BET OVER 7.5 (-115).
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