The Golden State Warriors (44-22) travel to the Mile High City Thursday to play the Denver Nuggets (40-26). Tip-off at the Ball Arena is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Golden State snapped its 5-game losing skid — 1-4 against the spread (ATS) — by beating the Los Angeles Clippers 112-97 at home Tuesday, covering as 6-point favorites.
Denver has won seven of eight since the All-Star break (4-4 ATS) with the most recent being a 106-100 victory over the Kings last night (Wednesday) in Sacramento but failed to cover as 6.5-point road favorites.
The Nuggets are 3-0 straight up (SU) and 2-1 ATS versus the Warriors this season and Denver big Nikola Jokic has been dominant in those meetings. Jokic is averaging 29.7 points on 55.0% shooting with 17.0 rebounds, 8.7 assists and a plus-11 net rating in three games against Golden State.
Warriors at Nuggets odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:05 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Warriors -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Nuggets +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread: Warriors -2.5 (-107) | Nuggets +2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 227.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
Warriors at Nuggets key injuries
Warriors
- PF Draymond Green (back) out
- SG Gary Payton (knee) out
- PF Otto Porter Jr. (illness) out
Nuggets (not yet submitted)
- SG Will Barton (ankle) questionable
- PF Jeff Green (personal reasons) questionable
- PG Bones Hyland (knee) questionable
- PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
- PF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out
[tipico]
Warriors at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Nuggets 116, Warriors 112
Money line
LEAN to the NUGGETS (+110) only because Denver’s spread is a sharper wager. The Nuggets are trending up and the Warriors (-135) haven’t been the same team since Draymond Green was sidelined Jan. 11 with a back injury.
Golden State is third in adjusted defensive rating for the season but since Green went out of the lineup, the Warriors are 16th in adjusted defensive rating, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Furthermore, Golden State’s defensive field goal percentage at the rim ranks 27th and 21st versus mid-range attempts, per CTG.
Also, Jokic’s worst performance against Golden State this season was the only Warriors-Nuggets meeting Draymond appeared in.
Perhaps SPRINKLE on the NUGGETS (+110) but Denver’s spread is the better player.
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Against the spread
Definitely BET the NUGGETS +2.5 (-115) instead of or heavier than their ML.
But, Jokic’s dominance over the Warriors is the biggest basketball factor in this matchup and there’s some reverse line movement headed towards Denver.
According to VegasInsider.com, nearly three-fourths of the money is on Golden State but the line has been lowered from the Warriors laying 3.5 points on the opener. It’s a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.
The NUGGETS PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
PASS.
My numbers align too closely to the predicted total hence there’s no value in me betting this line. If anything I’d “lean” to the Over 227.5 (-112) but we are getting the worst of the number since the Nuggets-Warriors opened with a 224-point total.
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