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The Virginia Cavaliers (21-8, 12-6 ACC) and Duke Blue Devils (22-6, 13-4) meet Saturday at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Tip-off is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Virginia vs. Duke odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
The Cavaliers topped Boston College on the road last time out Wednesday, winning 72-68 as 1-point favorites as the Over (126) cashed. It snapped a 2-game skid and an 0-4 against-the-spread (ATS) nosedive. The Over also halted a 3-game run to the Under.
This is the 1st time these teams have met at Cameron since Feb. 7, 2022, a 69-68 win by UVA as an 11-point underdog as the Over (128.5) cashed. The Hoos have been a thorn in the side of the Dukies. They’ve gone 2-2 straight up and 3-1 ATS in the past 4 trips to Durham and 6-3 ATS in the past 9 in the series.
The Blue Devils recovered from that ugly 83-79 loss at Wake Forest where the Deacs fans stormed the court and C Kyle Filipowski was involved in a post-game shoving incident and apparent injury. He played against Louisville Wednesday, and Duke took out its aggression on the poor Cardinals in an 84-59 win and cover as a 20.5-point favorite.
Duke enters 6-1 ATS in the past 7 games, while the Under is 6-1 in the span. The lone non-cover and Over result was against Wake Forest in the upset loss.
Duke is No. 10 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
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Virginia at Duke odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Virginia +365 (bet $100 to win $365) | Duke -490 (bet $490 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Virginia +9.5 (-114) | Duke -9.5 (-106)
- Over/Under (O/U): 124.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Virginia at Duke picks and predictions
Prediction
Duke 65, Virginia 58
Moneyline
Duke (-490) will cost you nearly 5 times your potential return, and that’s quite risky considering how tough Virginia (+365) has played it, especially at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
This figures to be a defensive grind all day long, and Duke will do well just to get the victory outright against the offensively-challenged, but defensively-gifted Hoos.
PASS.
Against the spread
VIRGINIA +9.5 (-114) always seems to play its best when it sees Duke -9.5 (-106) on the floor. The Cavaliers have cashed in 6 of the past 9 meetings in this series while going 3-1 ATS in the past 4 trips to Durham in front of the Cameron Crazies.
While UVA is just 1-4 ATS in the past 5 outings, it is a respectable 7-5-1 ATS across the previous 13. In addition, it is 5-1 ATS in the past 6 road games, too.
For Duke, it is 6-1 ATS in the past 7 outings, so it won’t be easy for Virginia. But again, the Cavaliers always seem to play the Blue Devils tough, and Duke is just 4-3 ATS in the past 7 at home.
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Over/Under
UNDER 124.5 (-115) is a low number, but it’s the lean in this ACC rivalry game.
We’ve seen Duke cash the Under in 6 of the past 7 games, and the total has gone low in each of the past 5 outings in front of the home fans.
Virginia has hit the Under in 3 of the past 4 outings, including 2 games from Feb. 19-24 which saw the Cavaliers average just 42.5 PPG.
Get ready, North Carolina!
Online sports betting begins March 11
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