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Duke at Virginia odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Duke at Virginia odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Duke Blue Devils (17-7, 8-5 ACC) will look to take down the No. 9 Virginia Cavaliers (18-4, 10-3) in Charlottesville Saturday at 4 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Duke vs. Virginia odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.

No. 24 Duke, after defeating rival North Carolina 63-57 as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday, proceeded to be trounced 81-59 two days later at 20th-ranked Miami as a 3-point underdog. This continued the up-and-down season for the Blue Devils, especially with F Dariq Whitehead sidelined with a leg injury. Lucky for Duke, Whitehead will be returning soon, possibly Saturday against the Cavaliers. His return would be a great sign for Duke, which has had trouble scoring with Whitehead out of the lineup.

Virginia, after losing 74-68 as a 2-point underdog to Virginia Tech Feb. 4, came back home and gained a 63-50 victory as a 7.5-point favorite against No. 22 NC State. Heading into Saturday, Virginia is tied with Clemson and Pittsburgh — all 10-3 in conference — atop of the ACC heading into the final month of the regular season.

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Duke at Virginia odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:11 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Duke +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Virginia -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Duke +5.5 (-105) | Virginia -5.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 126.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Duke at Virginia picks and predictions

Prediction

Virginia 65, Duke 57

Moneyline

PASS.

Duke has been struggling lately, and a road game in Charlottesville against the best team in the ACC is not a way to get things on the right track.

Virginia, fresh off its 13-point home win over NC State, will win here, too, for the team’s 9th victory in the last 10 games — Virginia Tech being the lone loss.

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Against the spread

TAKE VIRGINIA -5.5 (-115).

Not only has Virginia played a better schedule, but it has also won against that schedule.

Virginia is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 home games and is also 4-0 ATS in its last 4 contests against teams with a winning percentage over .600, per Covers.com. In its last 6 games, Virginia is 4-1-1 ATS.

Duke has not fared well as of late. The Blue Devils are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. They’re also 0-7 ATS in their last 7 on the road against teams with home-win percentages above .600.

This has all the markings of a VIRGINIA -5.5 (-115) cover.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 126.5 (-115).

With Duke struggling to score and going Under in 3 of its last 4 games — plus, cashing Under tickets in its last 5 Saturday games — the fact Virginia plays at one of the slowest paces in the country might not even matter.

Both teams will want to play ball control and limit possessions.

Virginia ranks 10th in team defense, allowing 60.4 points per game, while Duke is 41st at 64.1 PPG. These defenses will be able to contain the limited offense of the other.

Neither team has an offense ranked inside the top 150. Duke averages just 71.9 PPG, good for 169th, while Virginia scores 70.0 PPG to rank 219th.

In what should be a defensive matchup, I will ride with the UNDER 126.5 (-115).

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North Carolina at Virginia odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Cavaliers sports betting odds and lines, with college football betting picks, tips and predictions.

The North Carolina Tar Heels (4-1, 4-1 ACC) and Virginia Cavaliers (1-4, 1-4 ACC) put their inverse records on the line in a Saturday night (8 p.m. ET) ACC showdown at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Va. We analyze the North Carolina-Virginia college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

North Carolina is ranked No. 13 in the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

North Carolina at Virginia: Betting odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 1:10 p.m. ET.

Money line: North Carolina -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Virginia +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
Against the spread/ATS: North Carolina -6.5 (-121) | Virginia +6.5 (+100)
Over/Under: 61.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

North Carolina at Virginia: Three things to know

North Carolina is coming off a nice bounce-back win (vs. N.C. State) after a disappointing loss to Florida State the week before. On the year, UNC has averaged 9.5 yards per pass attempt (10th FBS) and 5.7 yards per carry (eighth) on the ground. Running backs Michael Carter (7.9 YPC) and Javonte Williams (6.9) have both averaged over 100 rushing yards per game.
The Cavaliers are also coming off a solid bounce-back. Virginia was routed by Wake Forest two weeks ago, but the Wahoos rallied to post a solid showing (and an easy against-the-spread win) in a 19-14 loss to Miami (Fla.) last week. Against the Hurricanes, the Virginia defense was solid, especially in the red zone, after having coughed up 119 points over the team’s three previous games.
The Tar Heels lost last year’s game, 38-31, and have lost three straight in their series with the Cavaliers. Last year’s loss came despite then-freshman QB Sam Howell throwing four TD passes as part of a 353-yard passing performance. This year’s game pits Howell (280.6 passing yards per game) against the ACC’s worst pass defense (286.0 yards allowed per game).

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North Carolina at Virginia: Odds, prediction, betting lines and picks

Prediction

North Carolina 28, Virginia 24

Money line (ML)

North Carolina has a more solid recruiting base and a much better offense. THE TAR HEELS ARE A DECENT PLAY AT -250 but consider a line watch here. The Tar Heels are a really solid value play in the -230 to -240 range.

Against the spread (ATS)

North Carolina is 2-3 ATS over its last five road games. Virginia is 3-2 ATS over its last five at home; the Cavs are 16-5 in their last 21 games as a home dog. STEERING CLEAR OF A GAME with a likable Under on the total.

Over/Under (O/U)

Both defenses figure as better than what is shown by average-to-below average surface numbers. The Under is 8-3 over Virginia’s last 11 as a home dog, and the low side of totals has played to significant bounce in games after North Carolina scores 40 points or more the prior game (Under is 8-2 the next time out). The Under is 10-4-1 over the last 15 editions of “The South’s Oldest Rivalry.” BACK THE UNDER AS A STRONG PLAY in meeting No. 115 between the Heels and Wahoos.

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Virginia at Miami odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s Virginia Cavaliers at Miami Hurricanes sports betting odds and lines, with college football betting picks, tips and predictions.

The Virginia Cavaliers (1-3, 1-3 ACC) and Miami Hurricanes (4-1, 3-1) meet at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., for an 8 p.m. ET kickoff Saturday. Below, we analyze the Virginia-Miami college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

Virginia at Miami: Betting odds and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 4:35 p.m. ET.

Money line: Virginia +345 (bet $100 to win $345) | Miami -455 (bet $455 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Virginia +13.5 (-106) | Miami -13.5 (-115)
Over/Under: 55.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Virginia at Miami: Three things to know

The big concern for Virginia is under center as QB Brennan Armstrong (concussion) remains in concussion protocol. As such, UVA is reportedly considering a three-QB system, something it did in a 40-23 loss at Wake Forest last week. Lindell Stone started vs. the Demon Deacons, with Mississippi State grad transfer Keytaon Thompson and dual-threat freshman Iraken Armstead also seeing time.
Miami bounced back after its blowout road loss to Clemson with a 31-19 win against Pittsburgh, narrowly cashing as an 11.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Hurricanes are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS at home, and they have scored at least 31 points in each outing at Hard Rock.
The Hurricanes offensive attack has been rather balanced, averaging 228.0 passing yards per game to rank 42nd in the country, with 179.0 rushing YPG to check in at 22nd. Those numbers would be even higher, but they only had 89 yards on the ground and 121 through the air at Clemson.

Virginia at Miami: Odds, prediction, betting lines and picks

Prediction

Miami 41, Virginia 17

Money line (ML)

Backing Miami (-455) on its home field is tempting, but this price is just way too expensive. AVOID and look to the spread instead.

Against the spread (ATS)

MIAMI -13.5 (-115) is a great play. Yes, the Hurricanes didn’t measure up against Clemson a couple of weeks ago, but not many do. The ‘Canes have been lights out on their home field, winning and covering all three times, and their offense has been great in doing so. It helps when UAB, Florida State and Pitt are the opponents in those games, but Virginia is in that same class. The Cavs’ three-QB system won’t befuddle the Hurricanes, either. In fact, it will likely work to the detriment of continuity for the Hoos.

Over/Under (O/U)

The OVER 55.5 (-110) is the way to go. It has cashed in all four games for Virginia, mainly due to a lack of defense. It has coughed up 34.8 PPG, good for just 62nd in the land. And the Cavaliers have allowed 40.5 PPG in two road outings, too. Look for the Hurricanes to add to their woes in a high-scoring game.

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