The No. 21 Maryland Terrapins (9-3) welcome the UMBC Retrievers (9-4) to Xfinity Center Thursday. Tip is set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the UMBC vs. Maryland odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
The Terrapins beat Saint Peter’s 75-45 their last time on the court on Dec. 22, covering as 22.5-point favorites. Maryland is 9-3 against the spread (ATS) this season and 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games. The Terrapins have lost 3 of their last 4 games, all against Power 5 programs.
UMBC is 7-5 ATS on the season. The Retrievers beat William & Mary 78-62 on Dec. 18 and covered as 6.5-point home favorites. They are 3-2 straight up when away from home this season. UMBC has covered 6 of its last 8 games.
Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
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UMBC at Maryland odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:21 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): UMBC +825 (bet $100 to win $825) | Maryland -1900 (bet $1,900 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): UMBC +17.5 (-105) | Maryland -17.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 145.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
UMBC at Maryland picks and predictions
Prediction
Maryland 80, UMBC 61
Moneyline
PASS.
Maryland is at home and a strong favorite. It should come out on top with ease, but backing them at (-1900) doesn’t make much sense.
Against the spread
BET MARYLAND -17.5 (-115).
Maryland has been a double-digit favorite 6 times this season, and is 5-1 ATS with the only non-cover coming in a 95-79 win over Copper State when the Terrapins didn’t cover a 23.5-point spread, their largest of the season. All 3 spreads between 10 and 20 they have covered.
UMBC is 1-1 ATS when given a spread of more than 10. It opened its season with a 22-point loss to Tulane. On the road here as well, Maryland should be a much more challenging opponent and the spread is only wider by 1.5 points.
Considering the Terrapins’ success against smaller programs, back MARYLAND -17.5 (-115).
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 145.5 (-110).
Maryland ranks top 40 in opponents’ points per game (61.7), opponents’ field goal percentage (39.2%), and opponents’ 3-point FG percentage (28.2%).
Basically put, its defense is solid, a key reason the Terrapins are 4-8 O/U this season. On the other hand, UMBC is 6-6 O/U but has gone Under in 4 of its last 5 games.
That said, back the UNDER 145.5 (-110).
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