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UFC on ESPN 54: Vicente Luque vs. Joaquin Buckley odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 54 odds between Vicente Luque vs. Joaquin Buckley, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round welterweight bout on the main card, Vicente Luque and Joaquin Buckley meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 54 at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 54: Luque vs. Buckley odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Luque (22-9-1) | Buckley (17-6-0)

Luque is coming off a unanimous-decision win over Rafael dos Anjos in mid-August in his most recent fight. That halted a 2-bout losing skid with a KO/TKO setback against Geoff Neal in Aug. 2022, and a UD loss to Belal Muhammad in the main event in mid-April of 2022.

Buckley ended up with a UD win over Alex Morono last time out in early October, and he had a 2nd-round KO/TKO against Andre Fialho prior to that. His last loss was a KO/TKO in the 2nd round against Chris Curtis at UFC 282. Buckley has picked up wins in 5 of the past 7 fights, going the distance 3 times.

The southpaw Buckley holds a slight half-inch reach advantage, while Luque has a 5.17-to-3.87 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. The favorite is way more accurate on those strikes, too, hitting 56.04%, while Buckley throws punches wildly, with just a 35.56% significant strikes accuracy percentage.

In the takedown game, Buckley has 1.51-to-1.04 advantage, although, again, Luque is more accurate at 60.87%, while Buckley has just a 36.67% takedown accuracy percentage.

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UFC on ESPN 54: Luque vs. Buckley

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:35 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Luque -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Buckley +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -175 | Under +135)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +150 | No -210)

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UFC on ESPN 54: Luque vs. Buckley picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

LUQUE (-135) is just a little more polished. He is 32 years old, and he lands a lot more significant strikes per minute, and he does so with much greater accuracy. And in the takedown department, he is much more accurate there, too.

Luque has gone the distance in 2 of his past 3 fights, and Buckley has ended up going the distance in 3 of his past 5 full fights which weren’t ended via doctor’s stoppage. If the judges decide, Luque will win by a mile, as he just does all of the little things better to rack up points throughout the course of a fight.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-175) is a little on the pricey side, but it’s worth the risk. These 2 fighters should feel each other out in the 1st round, and it’s unlikely to be a quick finish. As mentioned above, these fighters have both ended up going the distance frequently lately.

YES (+150): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is also worth a look at plus-money, and LUQUE BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+500) on the 7-way line for a chance to multiply up by 5 times is worth a roll of the dice. That’s a tremendous value.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 240: Karl Williams vs. Justin Tafa odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 240 odds between Karl Williams vs. Justin Tafa, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round heavyweight bout on the main card, Karl Williams and Justin Tafa meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 240 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 98 and UFC Vegas 89 — at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 240: Williams vs. Tafa odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Williams (9-1-0) | Tafa (7-3-0)

Williams heads into this bout with 3 unanimous-decision wins in 3 fights since joining the UFC. He has 6 consecutive pro victories dating back to B2 Fighting Series 142: Kentucky in a championship bout against Jason Butcher Dec. 4, 2021. He lost via triangle choke/submission in that lone setback in 10 career bouts. He posted a UD win over veteran Chase Sherman last time out in mid-May.

Tafa is coming off a KO/TKO win in 82 seconds against Austen Lane at UFC 293, and he had 3 straight wins via KO/TKO, all in Round 1. He has picked up 4 wins in 7 bouts at the UFC level with one no contest.

Williams holds a 5-inch reach advantage against Tafa, so he’ll be able to pull the fighter in and out at his discretion. The southpaw Tafa has a 5.13-to-2.93 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, so it would behoove Williams to keep Tafa at a distance. Each fighter is nearly identical in accuracy, with Williams at 59.67% significant strike accuracy percentage, and Tafa at 59.09%.

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UFC Fight Night 240: Williams vs. Tafa odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Williams -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Tafa +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -175 | Under +135)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +130 | No -175)

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UFC Fight Night 240: Williams vs. Tafa picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Williams (-185) is just a little too pricey straight up on the 2-way line, although it wouldn’t be unacceptable to toss him into a multi-fighter, or multi-leg, parlay of some sort.

You just can’t risk nearly 2 times your potential return on a single bet, especially against a veteran like Tafa (+150).

Get a little more specific instead. WILLIAMS BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+150) is a much better play. He’ll be able to push and pull Tafa out due to his immense reach advantage, and Williams has won all 3 of his fights via decision at the UFC level. He has been in no hurry to get finishes.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-175) is a little on the pricey side, but it isn’t bad if you like to play it safe.

YES (+130): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a decent bet if you don’t want to necessarily declare a winner, but want a little action on this fight. Williams is methodical, and he hasn’t secured an early finish in 3 fights at the UFC level.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC on ESPN 53: Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 53 odds between Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round women’s flyweight bout in the main event, Amanda Ribas and Rose Namajunas meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 53 — also known as UFC Vegas 89 — at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 53: Ribas vs. Namajunas odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Ribas (12-4-0) | Namajunas (12-6-0)

Ribas rebounded from a KO/TKO loss to Maycee Barber in June 2023, picking up a 3rd-round KO/TKO against Luana Pinheiro in mid-November. After 3 straight decisions, she has finished inside the distance in the past 2 outings.

Namajunas lost a split-decision championship bout at UFC 274 to Carla Esparza in May 2022, and she was unable to rebound in her return Sept. 2023 at UFC Paris against Manon Fiorot. In fact, Namajunas suffered a broken hand in that fight.

Ribas has a slight 1-inch reach advantage while posting a 4.92-to-3.68 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. The Brazilian fighter is also a lot more accurate with those strikes, landing 52.80% to just 43.65% for “Thug” Namajunas.

Ribas holds a 1.99-to-1.49 takedown average, too, while posting a 0.80-to-0.55 submission average advantage, too.

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UFC on ESPN 53: Ribas vs. Namajunas odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:30 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Ribas +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Namajunas -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -125 | Under -105)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +130 | No -175)

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UFC on ESPN 53: Ribas vs. Namajunas picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

RIBAS (+165) is an attractive pick as the moderate underdog against Namajunas (-200), the former champ.

While Ribas has ended up with 3 losses in the past 6 fights, she holds some impressive advantages in all of the major categories. She lands more significant strikes, she is more accurate, and she does a good job on takedowns and submissions, too. That will go a long way to wowing the judges.

RIBAS ON POINTS (+450) for the chance to multiply up by 4½ times is quite an attractive play worth a roll of the dice.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (+130): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE? is a strong value at plus-money.

Ribas hasn’t gone the distance in the past 2 fights, although the most recent bout with Pinheiro was just 67 seconds short of going all the way. Prior to the past bouts, she had gone the distance 3 times while needing the help of the judges to determine a winner in 5 of the past 9 outings.

For Namajunas, she has gone the distance in 3 straight bouts, and 4 of the past 5 outings.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 239: Bryan Battle vs. Ange Loosa odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 239 odds between Bryan Battle vs. Ange Loosa, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round welterweight bout on the main card, Bryan Battle and Ange Loosa meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 239 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 97 and UFC Vegas 88 — at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 239: Battle vs. Loosa odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.

Records: Battle (11-2-0) | Loosa (10-3-0)

Battle heads into this fight with 2 consecutive victories inside the distance, posting a 2nd-round submission win against AJ Fletcher last time out in late September. Prior to that, Battle made quick work of Gabe Green with a KO/TKO win in a mere 14 seconds. Since arriving at the UFC level, Battle has won 5 of his 6 fights, with 2 bouts going the distance.

Loosa has appeared in 3 fights at the UFC level, and he has won 2 in a row via unanimous-decision after losing his debut to Mounir Lazzez in April 2022, also via UD. In fact, the fighter from the Democratic Republic of Congo has ended up going the distance in each of his past 7 pro bouts. That streak includes a unanimous-decision loss to Jack Della Maddalena in Dana White’s Contender Series: Season 5, Week 3.

Battle enters the octagon with a 3-inch reach advantage, and while Loosa has landed 6.32 significant strikes per minute, Battle is more accurate with 58.28%. Battle is a little better on the ground, too, posting a 0.63-to-0.25 submission average.

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UFC Fight Night 239: Battle vs. Loosa odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Battle -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Loosa +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -200 | Under +150)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -165 | No +120)

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UFC Fight Night 239: Battle vs. Loosa picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Battle (-190) is just a little too expensive to bet straight up, costing nearly 2 times your potential return. Instead, let’s get a little more specific.

Loosa (+160) has ended up going the distance in all 3 fights since arriving at the UFC level and each of his previous 7 pro bouts. As such, backing BATTLE BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+150) at plus-money is a much more attractive option than the more costly 2-way line.

Over/Under (O/U)

While Over 2.5 Rounds (-200) is a little on the pricey side, costing 2 times your potential return, backing YES (-165): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE? is not priced out of line.

Again, the last time we saw Loosa fight inside the distance was at the lower levels against Rustam Khasanov at Tech-Krep FC: International Caucasian Fight Championship way back in Oct. 2016.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 239: Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 239 odds between Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round heavyweight bout in the main event, Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 239 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 97 and UFC Vegas 88 — at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 239: Tuivasa vs. Tybura odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.

Records: Tuivasa (15-6-0) | Tybura (24-8-0)

The southpaw Tuivasa takes the walk looking to halt a 3-bout losing skid. “Bam Bam” suffered a 2nd-round submission loss to veteran Alexander Volkov last time out at UFC 293, and he was knocked out by Sergei Pavlovich and Ciryl Gane in the 2 prior fights.

Tybura is also coming off a loss, as he suffered a KO/TKO loss in just 73 seconds against Tom Aspinall in the main event in late July in a Fight Night in London. Prior to that, the Polish-born fighter had won 7 of his previous 8 fights, with 6 of those bouts going the distance.

Tuivasa holds a slight 3.98-to-3.55 significant strikes landed per minute, although Tybura is a little more accurate at 59.17% with those strikes, to just 51.92% for the Aussie. Tybura also checks in with a 1.39 takedown average and 33.90% takedown accuracy percentage while barely a blip on the radar with a 0.07 submission average. However, Tuivasa is zeroed out in all of those categories, rarely going to the ground game if he can help it.

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UFC Fight Night 239: Tuivasa vs. Tybura odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:25 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Tuivasa -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Tybura -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -125 | Under -105)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +400 | No -700)

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UFC Fight Night 239: Tuivasa vs. Tybura picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

TUIVASA (-115) is thirsty for a victory, and he should be able to get it if he is able to keep his feet. Tybura (-105) will want to get the Aussie out of his comfort zone and onto the mat. If Tybura can do that, he has an opportunity to get the job done.

However, Tuivasa should be able to keep this bout upright and go toe-to-toe with Tybura in a brawl. If he does that, he’ll go the same route as Aspinall and make quick work of Tybura.

In fact, playing TUIVASA BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+100) at even-money on the 7-way method of victory category isn’t a bad option. There is no sense paying a little extra and doing the 5-way method, with Tuivasa by KO/TKO, DQ or submission (-105), as the ground game just isn’t an option for the slight favorite.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (-105) is a good play here if you’re backing Tuivasa. If the favorite gets the job done, he is going to get it done quickly. On the flip side, if you’re leaning Tybura on the moneyline, then you’ll want Over 1.5 Rounds (-125). For Tybura to hang around, he’ll need to force this to the canvas. If he can do that, he’ll hang around past the midway point of Round 2, and then some. However, that’s not what is expected.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC 299: Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 299 odds between Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round bantamweight championship bout in the main event, Sean O’Malley and Marlon Vera meet Saturday at UFC 299 at Kaseya Center in Miami. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera 2 odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPNews/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, and is on pay-per-view.

Records: O’Malley (17-1-0) | Vera (23-8-1)

O’Malley dropped Aljamain Sterling via KO/TKO in Round 2 at UFC 291 to snatch the lightweight championship strap. This will be his 1st title defense. He is trying to hold onto the belt against Vera, the only fighter to beat him since joining the UFC. O’Malley lost via 1st-round KO/TKO at UFC 252 in just 4:40.

O’Malley has ended up going the distance just once in the past 9 fights, with 7 bouts ending via KO/TKO, with the 1 loss, he had a split-decision win over Petr Yan at UFC 280, and a no contest at UFC 276 against Pedro Munhoz.

Vera topped Munhoz at UFC 292 in a unanimous-decision win, bouncing back from a split-decision loss to Cory Sandhagen in the fight night main event in late March 2023. He had ended up going the distance in 5 of his past 7 fights.

O’Malley holds a 1.5-inch reach advantage over Vera, and he has a 7.25-to-4.37 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. “Suga” is quite accurate with those strikes, too, hitting at a 61.60% clip, while Vera lands 53.56% of his significant strikes. Vera has the 0.95-to-0.43 submission average advantage.

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UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): O’Malley -275 (bet $275 to win $100) | Vera +220 (bet $100 to win $220)
  • Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -160 | Under +120)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -135 | No +100)

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UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

O’Malley (-275) will cost you nearly 3 times your potential return, and that’s too expensive. He should be able to get the job done in this rematch, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a trilogy.

While the Ecudoran fighter Vera (+220) could have quite an enthusiastic crowd in Miami, it’s unlikely he is able to catch O’Malley with a big punch and KO/TKO again. In fact, it’s more likely the champ returns the favor.

Take O’MALLEY VIA KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+225) at plus-money on the 5-way line.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 4.5 ROUNDS (+120) at plus-money is a solid play, and it is a little more of a value than NO: WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? (+100), although you do get 90 more seconds of wiggle room for a small price.

While Vera had ended up going the distance in 3 of his past 4 fights, and 5 of his previous 7 bouts, he had a finish against O’Malley in the 1st fight. And O’Malley hasn’t involved the judges in 8 of his past 9 outings.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC 299: Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint-Denis odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 299 odds between Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint-Denis, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round lightweight bout in the co-main event, Dustin Poirier and Benoit Saint-Denis meet Saturday at UFC 299 at Kaseya Center in Miami. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 299: Poirier vs. Saint-Denis odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPNews/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, and is on pay-per-view.

Records: Poirier (29-8-0) | Saint-Denis (13-1-0)

Poirier looks to bounce back after falling to Justin Gaethje at UFC 291 last time out in late July. He is just 1-2 in his past 3 bouts, also falling to Charles Oliveira at UFC 269 in a 3rd-round submission to lose his chance at the welterweight strap. He did have a solid submission win over Michael Chandler at UFC 281, however. Each of his past 5 fights have finished inside the distance.

Saint-Denis has picked up 5 straight victories since losing to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos at UFC 267 in his debut with the company. The Frenchman, a.k.a. “God of War”, has 3 KO/TKO wins and 2 submission wins since that setback to EZDS. That solid win streak includes a 1st-round KO/TKO over Matt Frevola at UFC 295 in just 91 seconds last time out in mid-November.

Saint-Denis holds a slight 1-inch reach advantage, and he is 7 years younger than the underdog. The significant strikes landed per minute is nearly identical, with Saint-Denis holding an ever-so-slight 5.53-to-5.49 advantage, although he is much more accurate at 61.36%. He also has a tremendous 4.55 takedown average and 1.40-to-1.21 submission average.

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UFC 299: Poirier vs. Saint-Denis odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Poirier +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Saint-Denis -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -105 | Under -125)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +300 | No -500)

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UFC 299: Poirier vs. Saint-Denis picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Saint-Denis (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return, and that’s quite a bit of risk against a veteran like Poirier (+165).

While Poirier is just 4-3 in his past 7 fights, the losses have been against the best of the best in the division. This certainly won’t be easy for Saint-Denis. However, the southpaw Frenchman should get the job done with his tremendous punching ability, and playing SAINT-DENIS BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-150) is a strong play.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-105) is a solid play. While we’re not picking Poirier to win, he certainly won’t go quietly into the Miami night, either. Saint-Denis will have to work, and work hard to get the knockout.

Don’t expect to see this one end until at least Rounds 3 or 4. As such, playing ROUND 3 (+450) and ROUND 4 (+600) for the exact round the fight will end is worth a look. While you’ll obviously lose 1 of the bets, if the fight ends in Rounds 3-4, you’ll still be quite a bit ahead.

No (-500): Will the fight go the distance? costs you 5 times your potential return, and that’s just too much risk for not nearly enough value.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC 299: Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 299 odds between Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round welterweight bout on the main card, Gilbert Burns and Jack Della Maddalena meet Saturday at UFC 299 at Kaseya Center in Miami. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 299: Burns vs. Della Maddalena odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPNews/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, and is on Pay-Per-View.

Records: Burns (22-6-0) | Della Maddalena (16-2-0)

Burns takes the walk looking to rebound from a unanimous-decision loss to Belal Muhammad at UFC 288 last time out in early May. He has ended up going the distance in 4 of his past 5 fights, with a 1st-round submission win over Neil Magny at UFC 283 as the only exception during the 5-fight stretch.

Della Maddalena has earned a pair of split-decision wins in his past 2 fights, including a win over Kevin Holland at Noche UFC in mid-September. Since making his UFC debut, he is a perfect 6-0, with 4 fights finishing inside the distance.

Della Maddalena holds a 2-inch reach advantage, and the switch-stance fighter is 10 years younger than the underdog. JDM also holds an impressive 7.20-to-3.36 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, and he is slightly more accurate with those strikes at 57.03% to 56.49% for Burns. The Brazilian fighter has a solid 1.95 takedown average, and 0.53 submission average, so the Aussie will likely be looking to stay upright.

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UFC 299: Burns vs. Della Maddalena odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Burns +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Della Maddalena -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -190 | Under +145)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +150 | No -210)

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UFC 299: Burns vs. Della Maddalena picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

DELLA MADDALENA (-160) is worth a look as a moderate favorite on the 2-way line. As long as he can avoid getting into a wrestling match on the canvas, where Burns (+130) has a slight advantage, the favorite will be in good shape.

Since arriving at the UFC level, he is a perfect 6-for-6, and he has done just enough to wow the judges with his technique in the past 2 split-decision wins. Don’t be surprised to see the Aussie need the help of the judges yet again. DELLA MADDALENA ON POINTS (+300) for the chance to multiple up by 3 times if too tempting to pass up.

Over/Under (O/U)

Over 1.5 Rounds (-190) is a little too expensive, costing nearly 2 times your potential return.

Instead, YES (+150): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is the way to go. Burns has had just 1 of his past 5 fights finish inside the distance, while again, Della Maddalena has had a pair of split-decision wins in his past 2 outings. As such, Yes is a nice value.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 238: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 238 odds between Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round heavyweight bout in the main event, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Shamil Gaziev meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 238 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 96 and UFC Vegas 87 — at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 238: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 1 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 4 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.

Records: Rozenstruik (13-5-0) | Gaziev (12-0-0)

The Suriname-born Rozenstruik is looking to bounce back after a 1st-round submission loss to Jailton Almeida last time out in the main event in mid-May. He has dropped 3 of the past 4 fights, and each of his previous 3 outings have not made it out of the 1st round. Rozenstruik has ended up going the distance just twice in 12 bouts since arriving at the UFC level.

Gaziev made his debut in grand fashion at UFC 296, dropping Martin Buday in the 2nd round in a KO/TKO win. He also had a submission victory in Round 1 against Greg Velasco in Dana White’s Contender Series: Season 7, Week 7.

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UFC Fight Night 238: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:05 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Rozenstruik +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Gaziev -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +135 | Under -185)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +750 | No -2500)

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UFC Fight Night 238: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Gaziev (-200) is a 34-year-old who is getting a bit of a late start at the UFC level. But he was impressive against Buday last time out, and he is facing a struggling Rozenstruik (+160). The veteran has had his moments in the UFC, but Rozenstruik just can’t seem to stack wins anymore after a promising start to his career.

Still, you can’t risk 2 times your potential return. Instead, look to the method of victory, and back GAZIEV BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+125) at plus-money for a much better value.

Over/Under (O/U)

The fact Rozenstruik hasn’t made it out of the 1st round in the past 3 fights makes UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (-185) quite attractive. It’s a little on the expensive side, but the higher price can be excused as part of a parlay.

No (-2500): Will the fight go the distance? should be ignored, and at that price, it shouldn’t really even need to be said. There is never a value playing such high odds.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC 294: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 294 odds between Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round light heavyweight bout on the main card, Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker meet Saturday at UFC 294 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s around the UFC 294: Ankalaev vs. Walker odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ starting at 10 a.m. ET with the main card following on Pay-Per-View (PPV) at 2 p.m. ET.

Records: Ankalaev (18-1-1) | Walker (21-7-0)

Ankalaev fought to a draw against Jan Blachowicz at UFC 282 in Dec. 2022 in a title fight. The 31-year-old saw his 9-bout win streak snapped, although he hasn’t been beaten since losing to Paul Craig via submission in his UFC debut.

The Russian light heavyweight has finished inside the distance 6 of his 11 fights at the UFC level, including 5 KO/TKO victories, including a 2nd-round knockout of Anthony Smith at UFC 277 in July 2022.

Walker bounced back nicely after a 2-bout losing streak against Thiago Santos and Jamahal Hill, posting 3 straight victories over the aforementioned Smith, Paul Craig and Ion Cutelaba. He has done it a number of ways, too, showing his versatility, fighting to a unanimous decision against Smith, knocking out Craig in the 1st Round, while submitting Cutelaba, also in the 1st Round.

Walker holds an amazing 7-inch reach advantage, which shouldn’t be discounted. He also has a super slim 3.85-to-3.55 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, with Ankalaev slightly accurate at 62.91% to 61.48% for Walker. On the ground, Walker has the better numbers, posting a 1.03 submission average.

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UFC 294: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:14 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Ankalaev -335 (bet $335 to win $100) | Walker +270 (bet $100 to win $270)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -154 | Under +120)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +152 | No -200)

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UFC 294: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Call me crazy, but I don’t discount the 7-inch reach advantage WALKER (+270) holds in this fight. That’s a tremendous advantage, and one which will allow the Brazilian fighter to pull Ankalaev (-335) in and out at his choosing. The Russian won’t be able to get close to Walker, frustrating him.

I like the fact that Walker can win a fight in a multitude of ways. Just in his past 3 fights alone he has shown his tremendous versatility, and his ability to end fights quickly, too.

I also feel Ankalaev pushes a little too hard in this one, and might walk into a potential knockout. He fought to a draw last time out against Blachowicz, and the fight was panned by fans and Dana White for being rather boring. He might try to do things he isn’t comfortable with, getting himself into trouble in the process.

If you’re not comfortable playing the underdog, but still want action, look to KO/TKO (-140) for the “How fight will end” method of victory. That’s your best bet, regardless of the winner, although playing WALKER BY KO/TKO (+600) is worth playing lightly for a potential chance to multiply up by 6 times. Again, remember that 7-inch reach advantage, which will serve him well.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-154) isn’t a terrible play, as Ankalaev obviously went the distance last time out. While Walker has not made it into the 2nd round in 3 of his past 4 fights, this is a giant step up in competition, too, and he won’t get the quick finish.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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