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UFC on ESPN 54: Erin Blanchfield vs. Manon Fiorot odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 54 odds between Erin Blanchfield vs. Manot Fiorot, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round women’s flyweight bout in the main event, Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 54 at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 54: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Blanchfield (12-1-0) | Fiorot (11-1-0)

This is an elite-level matchup, as Blanchfield and Fiorot have each combined for just 2 losses in 25 career bouts.

Blanchfield has won all 6 fights since arriving at the UFC level, with 3 unanimous-decision wins, including a UD over Taila Santos last time out in late August, while the other 3 wins are each via submission. That includes a win over Jessica Andrade in Feb. 2023 in her only other UFC main event.

Fiorot has logged 4 straight unanimous-decision wins, and she, too, is 6-0 since arriving at the UFC level. That includes a UD win over Rose Namajunas last time out in early September. This is her 1st-ever main event at the UFC level.

Blanchfield is 10 years younger than the challenger, while Fiorot holds a slight 6.05-to-5.58 significant strikes landed per minute. Blanchfield is much more accurate at 61.71% on those strikes, however, while Fiorot tends to flail around, with just a 41.76% accuracy percentage on those strikes.

In the ground game, Blanchfield holds a 2.86 takedown average, and a 1.19 submission average.

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UFC on ESPN 54: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:10 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Blanchfield -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Fiorot +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -175 | Under +135)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -110 | No -120)

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UFC on ESPN 54: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Blanchfield (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return, and that’s a little too expensive for a standalone wager. As part of a multi-fighter parlay, including Blanchfield can certainly be excused.

The younger fighter is much more accurate with her significant strikes, and she is better in the takedown game, too. Blanchfield also has the experience of a main event to tap into, while this will be Fiorot’s first 5-bout UFC event.

The play is going with BLANCHFIELD BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+200) for a chance to double up. She just does all of the little things better, and she’ll catch the eye of the judges to rack up points per round over the more inaccurate Fiorot.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (-175) is a little expensive, but worth it. Fiorot has ended up going the distance in 4 straight fights, while Blanchfield is coming off a unanimous-decision win against Santos last time out.

YES (-110): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a strong play at near even-money. Fiorot has needed the help of the judges to decide a winner in 4 in a row, while Blanchfield has gone the distance in 4 of her past 7 pro bouts.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC on ESPN 54: Chris Weidman vs. Bruno Silva odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 54 odds between Chris Weidman vs. Bruno Silva, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round middleweight bout on the main card, Chris Weidman and Bruno Silva meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 54 at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 54: Weidman vs. Silva odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Weidman (15-7-0) | Silva (23-10-0)

The veteran Weidman has lost 7 of the past 9 fights since Dec. 12, 2015, including a unanimous-decision loss at UFC 292 last time out against Brad Tavares in mid-August. He has been knocked out 3 times in the past 5 outings, and his only victory in the 5-bout span is a unanimous-decision win over Omari Akhmedov in Aug. 2020.

Silv has lost back-to-back fights, too, while dropping 4 of the past 5 outings. However, looking at common opponents, he topped Tavares in a 1st-round KO/TKO last April for his only win in the 5-bout span.

Silva holds a 4.43-to-2.98 significant strikes landed per minute, and he is much more accurate on those strikes at 58.45%, while the veteran Weidman is just 51.85%. Weidman is 5 years older than Silva, while holding a 4-inch reach advantage.

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UFC on ESPN 54: Weidman vs. Silva

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:45 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Weidman +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Silva -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -130 | Under +100)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +180 | No -250)

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UFC on ESPN 54: Weidman vs. Silva picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Silva (-200) is a little on the pricey side, costing you 2 times your potential return. Neither of these fighters has been particularly hot lately, so that’s quite a bit to risk.

While Weidman (+165) has looked like a shell of his former self, he holds a 4-inch reach advantage, and he should be able to keep Silva at a distance. Getting more specific, taking SILVA BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-115) is much more price friendly, and it’s a winning bet as long as Silva doesn’t win on points, or obviously if Weidman scores the upset.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-130) is a good bet, as Weidman should be able to hold off Silva until at least the middle of Round 2. That reach advantage shouldn’t be discounted, as he will be able to pull Silva in and out at his discretion.

No (-250): Will the fight go the distance? is a little on the pricey side, costing 2½ times your potential return. While it’s likely we get a finish, nothing has been guaranteed with these fighters lately. Weidman has ended up going the distance in 2 of the past 3 bouts while getting knocked out in 17 seconds at UFC 261 in between those decisions. Silva went the distance last time out, but had two Round 1 endings prior to that.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC on ESPN 54: Vicente Luque vs. Joaquin Buckley odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 54 odds between Vicente Luque vs. Joaquin Buckley, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round welterweight bout on the main card, Vicente Luque and Joaquin Buckley meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 54 at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 54: Luque vs. Buckley odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN2/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Luque (22-9-1) | Buckley (17-6-0)

Luque is coming off a unanimous-decision win over Rafael dos Anjos in mid-August in his most recent fight. That halted a 2-bout losing skid with a KO/TKO setback against Geoff Neal in Aug. 2022, and a UD loss to Belal Muhammad in the main event in mid-April of 2022.

Buckley ended up with a UD win over Alex Morono last time out in early October, and he had a 2nd-round KO/TKO against Andre Fialho prior to that. His last loss was a KO/TKO in the 2nd round against Chris Curtis at UFC 282. Buckley has picked up wins in 5 of the past 7 fights, going the distance 3 times.

The southpaw Buckley holds a slight half-inch reach advantage, while Luque has a 5.17-to-3.87 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. The favorite is way more accurate on those strikes, too, hitting 56.04%, while Buckley throws punches wildly, with just a 35.56% significant strikes accuracy percentage.

In the takedown game, Buckley has 1.51-to-1.04 advantage, although, again, Luque is more accurate at 60.87%, while Buckley has just a 36.67% takedown accuracy percentage.

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UFC on ESPN 54: Luque vs. Buckley

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:35 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Luque -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Buckley +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -175 | Under +135)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +150 | No -210)

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UFC on ESPN 54: Luque vs. Buckley picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

LUQUE (-135) is just a little more polished. He is 32 years old, and he lands a lot more significant strikes per minute, and he does so with much greater accuracy. And in the takedown department, he is much more accurate there, too.

Luque has gone the distance in 2 of his past 3 fights, and Buckley has ended up going the distance in 3 of his past 5 full fights which weren’t ended via doctor’s stoppage. If the judges decide, Luque will win by a mile, as he just does all of the little things better to rack up points throughout the course of a fight.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-175) is a little on the pricey side, but it’s worth the risk. These 2 fighters should feel each other out in the 1st round, and it’s unlikely to be a quick finish. As mentioned above, these fighters have both ended up going the distance frequently lately.

YES (+150): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is also worth a look at plus-money, and LUQUE BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+500) on the 7-way line for a chance to multiply up by 5 times is worth a roll of the dice. That’s a tremendous value.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 240: Karl Williams vs. Justin Tafa odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 240 odds between Karl Williams vs. Justin Tafa, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round heavyweight bout on the main card, Karl Williams and Justin Tafa meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 240 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 98 and UFC Vegas 89 — at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 240: Williams vs. Tafa odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Williams (9-1-0) | Tafa (7-3-0)

Williams heads into this bout with 3 unanimous-decision wins in 3 fights since joining the UFC. He has 6 consecutive pro victories dating back to B2 Fighting Series 142: Kentucky in a championship bout against Jason Butcher Dec. 4, 2021. He lost via triangle choke/submission in that lone setback in 10 career bouts. He posted a UD win over veteran Chase Sherman last time out in mid-May.

Tafa is coming off a KO/TKO win in 82 seconds against Austen Lane at UFC 293, and he had 3 straight wins via KO/TKO, all in Round 1. He has picked up 4 wins in 7 bouts at the UFC level with one no contest.

Williams holds a 5-inch reach advantage against Tafa, so he’ll be able to pull the fighter in and out at his discretion. The southpaw Tafa has a 5.13-to-2.93 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, so it would behoove Williams to keep Tafa at a distance. Each fighter is nearly identical in accuracy, with Williams at 59.67% significant strike accuracy percentage, and Tafa at 59.09%.

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UFC Fight Night 240: Williams vs. Tafa odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Williams -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Tafa +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -175 | Under +135)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +130 | No -175)

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UFC Fight Night 240: Williams vs. Tafa picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Williams (-185) is just a little too pricey straight up on the 2-way line, although it wouldn’t be unacceptable to toss him into a multi-fighter, or multi-leg, parlay of some sort.

You just can’t risk nearly 2 times your potential return on a single bet, especially against a veteran like Tafa (+150).

Get a little more specific instead. WILLIAMS BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+150) is a much better play. He’ll be able to push and pull Tafa out due to his immense reach advantage, and Williams has won all 3 of his fights via decision at the UFC level. He has been in no hurry to get finishes.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-175) is a little on the pricey side, but it isn’t bad if you like to play it safe.

YES (+130): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a decent bet if you don’t want to necessarily declare a winner, but want a little action on this fight. Williams is methodical, and he hasn’t secured an early finish in 3 fights at the UFC level.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC on ESPN 53: Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 53 odds between Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round women’s flyweight bout in the main event, Amanda Ribas and Rose Namajunas meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 53 — also known as UFC Vegas 89 — at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 53: Ribas vs. Namajunas odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Ribas (12-4-0) | Namajunas (12-6-0)

Ribas rebounded from a KO/TKO loss to Maycee Barber in June 2023, picking up a 3rd-round KO/TKO against Luana Pinheiro in mid-November. After 3 straight decisions, she has finished inside the distance in the past 2 outings.

Namajunas lost a split-decision championship bout at UFC 274 to Carla Esparza in May 2022, and she was unable to rebound in her return Sept. 2023 at UFC Paris against Manon Fiorot. In fact, Namajunas suffered a broken hand in that fight.

Ribas has a slight 1-inch reach advantage while posting a 4.92-to-3.68 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. The Brazilian fighter is also a lot more accurate with those strikes, landing 52.80% to just 43.65% for “Thug” Namajunas.

Ribas holds a 1.99-to-1.49 takedown average, too, while posting a 0.80-to-0.55 submission average advantage, too.

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UFC on ESPN 53: Ribas vs. Namajunas odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:30 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Ribas +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Namajunas -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -125 | Under -105)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +130 | No -175)

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UFC on ESPN 53: Ribas vs. Namajunas picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

RIBAS (+165) is an attractive pick as the moderate underdog against Namajunas (-200), the former champ.

While Ribas has ended up with 3 losses in the past 6 fights, she holds some impressive advantages in all of the major categories. She lands more significant strikes, she is more accurate, and she does a good job on takedowns and submissions, too. That will go a long way to wowing the judges.

RIBAS ON POINTS (+450) for the chance to multiply up by 4½ times is quite an attractive play worth a roll of the dice.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (+130): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE? is a strong value at plus-money.

Ribas hasn’t gone the distance in the past 2 fights, although the most recent bout with Pinheiro was just 67 seconds short of going all the way. Prior to the past bouts, she had gone the distance 3 times while needing the help of the judges to determine a winner in 5 of the past 9 outings.

For Namajunas, she has gone the distance in 3 straight bouts, and 4 of the past 5 outings.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 239: Bryan Battle vs. Ange Loosa odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 239 odds between Bryan Battle vs. Ange Loosa, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round welterweight bout on the main card, Bryan Battle and Ange Loosa meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 239 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 97 and UFC Vegas 88 — at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 239: Battle vs. Loosa odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.

Records: Battle (11-2-0) | Loosa (10-3-0)

Battle heads into this fight with 2 consecutive victories inside the distance, posting a 2nd-round submission win against AJ Fletcher last time out in late September. Prior to that, Battle made quick work of Gabe Green with a KO/TKO win in a mere 14 seconds. Since arriving at the UFC level, Battle has won 5 of his 6 fights, with 2 bouts going the distance.

Loosa has appeared in 3 fights at the UFC level, and he has won 2 in a row via unanimous-decision after losing his debut to Mounir Lazzez in April 2022, also via UD. In fact, the fighter from the Democratic Republic of Congo has ended up going the distance in each of his past 7 pro bouts. That streak includes a unanimous-decision loss to Jack Della Maddalena in Dana White’s Contender Series: Season 5, Week 3.

Battle enters the octagon with a 3-inch reach advantage, and while Loosa has landed 6.32 significant strikes per minute, Battle is more accurate with 58.28%. Battle is a little better on the ground, too, posting a 0.63-to-0.25 submission average.

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UFC Fight Night 239: Battle vs. Loosa odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Battle -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Loosa +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -200 | Under +150)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -165 | No +120)

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UFC Fight Night 239: Battle vs. Loosa picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Battle (-190) is just a little too expensive to bet straight up, costing nearly 2 times your potential return. Instead, let’s get a little more specific.

Loosa (+160) has ended up going the distance in all 3 fights since arriving at the UFC level and each of his previous 7 pro bouts. As such, backing BATTLE BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+150) at plus-money is a much more attractive option than the more costly 2-way line.

Over/Under (O/U)

While Over 2.5 Rounds (-200) is a little on the pricey side, costing 2 times your potential return, backing YES (-165): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE? is not priced out of line.

Again, the last time we saw Loosa fight inside the distance was at the lower levels against Rustam Khasanov at Tech-Krep FC: International Caucasian Fight Championship way back in Oct. 2016.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 239: Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 239 odds between Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round heavyweight bout in the main event, Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 239 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 97 and UFC Vegas 88 — at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 239: Tuivasa vs. Tybura odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.

Records: Tuivasa (15-6-0) | Tybura (24-8-0)

The southpaw Tuivasa takes the walk looking to halt a 3-bout losing skid. “Bam Bam” suffered a 2nd-round submission loss to veteran Alexander Volkov last time out at UFC 293, and he was knocked out by Sergei Pavlovich and Ciryl Gane in the 2 prior fights.

Tybura is also coming off a loss, as he suffered a KO/TKO loss in just 73 seconds against Tom Aspinall in the main event in late July in a Fight Night in London. Prior to that, the Polish-born fighter had won 7 of his previous 8 fights, with 6 of those bouts going the distance.

Tuivasa holds a slight 3.98-to-3.55 significant strikes landed per minute, although Tybura is a little more accurate at 59.17% with those strikes, to just 51.92% for the Aussie. Tybura also checks in with a 1.39 takedown average and 33.90% takedown accuracy percentage while barely a blip on the radar with a 0.07 submission average. However, Tuivasa is zeroed out in all of those categories, rarely going to the ground game if he can help it.

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UFC Fight Night 239: Tuivasa vs. Tybura odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:25 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Tuivasa -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Tybura -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -125 | Under -105)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +400 | No -700)

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UFC Fight Night 239: Tuivasa vs. Tybura picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

TUIVASA (-115) is thirsty for a victory, and he should be able to get it if he is able to keep his feet. Tybura (-105) will want to get the Aussie out of his comfort zone and onto the mat. If Tybura can do that, he has an opportunity to get the job done.

However, Tuivasa should be able to keep this bout upright and go toe-to-toe with Tybura in a brawl. If he does that, he’ll go the same route as Aspinall and make quick work of Tybura.

In fact, playing TUIVASA BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+100) at even-money on the 7-way method of victory category isn’t a bad option. There is no sense paying a little extra and doing the 5-way method, with Tuivasa by KO/TKO, DQ or submission (-105), as the ground game just isn’t an option for the slight favorite.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (-105) is a good play here if you’re backing Tuivasa. If the favorite gets the job done, he is going to get it done quickly. On the flip side, if you’re leaning Tybura on the moneyline, then you’ll want Over 1.5 Rounds (-125). For Tybura to hang around, he’ll need to force this to the canvas. If he can do that, he’ll hang around past the midway point of Round 2, and then some. However, that’s not what is expected.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC 299: Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 299 odds between Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round bantamweight championship bout in the main event, Sean O’Malley and Marlon Vera meet Saturday at UFC 299 at Kaseya Center in Miami. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera 2 odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPNews/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, and is on pay-per-view.

Records: O’Malley (17-1-0) | Vera (23-8-1)

O’Malley dropped Aljamain Sterling via KO/TKO in Round 2 at UFC 291 to snatch the lightweight championship strap. This will be his 1st title defense. He is trying to hold onto the belt against Vera, the only fighter to beat him since joining the UFC. O’Malley lost via 1st-round KO/TKO at UFC 252 in just 4:40.

O’Malley has ended up going the distance just once in the past 9 fights, with 7 bouts ending via KO/TKO, with the 1 loss, he had a split-decision win over Petr Yan at UFC 280, and a no contest at UFC 276 against Pedro Munhoz.

Vera topped Munhoz at UFC 292 in a unanimous-decision win, bouncing back from a split-decision loss to Cory Sandhagen in the fight night main event in late March 2023. He had ended up going the distance in 5 of his past 7 fights.

O’Malley holds a 1.5-inch reach advantage over Vera, and he has a 7.25-to-4.37 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. “Suga” is quite accurate with those strikes, too, hitting at a 61.60% clip, while Vera lands 53.56% of his significant strikes. Vera has the 0.95-to-0.43 submission average advantage.

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UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): O’Malley -275 (bet $275 to win $100) | Vera +220 (bet $100 to win $220)
  • Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -160 | Under +120)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -135 | No +100)

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UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

O’Malley (-275) will cost you nearly 3 times your potential return, and that’s too expensive. He should be able to get the job done in this rematch, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a trilogy.

While the Ecudoran fighter Vera (+220) could have quite an enthusiastic crowd in Miami, it’s unlikely he is able to catch O’Malley with a big punch and KO/TKO again. In fact, it’s more likely the champ returns the favor.

Take O’MALLEY VIA KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+225) at plus-money on the 5-way line.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 4.5 ROUNDS (+120) at plus-money is a solid play, and it is a little more of a value than NO: WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? (+100), although you do get 90 more seconds of wiggle room for a small price.

While Vera had ended up going the distance in 3 of his past 4 fights, and 5 of his previous 7 bouts, he had a finish against O’Malley in the 1st fight. And O’Malley hasn’t involved the judges in 8 of his past 9 outings.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC 299: Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint-Denis odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 299 odds between Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint-Denis, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round lightweight bout in the co-main event, Dustin Poirier and Benoit Saint-Denis meet Saturday at UFC 299 at Kaseya Center in Miami. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 299: Poirier vs. Saint-Denis odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPNews/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, and is on pay-per-view.

Records: Poirier (29-8-0) | Saint-Denis (13-1-0)

Poirier looks to bounce back after falling to Justin Gaethje at UFC 291 last time out in late July. He is just 1-2 in his past 3 bouts, also falling to Charles Oliveira at UFC 269 in a 3rd-round submission to lose his chance at the welterweight strap. He did have a solid submission win over Michael Chandler at UFC 281, however. Each of his past 5 fights have finished inside the distance.

Saint-Denis has picked up 5 straight victories since losing to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos at UFC 267 in his debut with the company. The Frenchman, a.k.a. “God of War”, has 3 KO/TKO wins and 2 submission wins since that setback to EZDS. That solid win streak includes a 1st-round KO/TKO over Matt Frevola at UFC 295 in just 91 seconds last time out in mid-November.

Saint-Denis holds a slight 1-inch reach advantage, and he is 7 years younger than the underdog. The significant strikes landed per minute is nearly identical, with Saint-Denis holding an ever-so-slight 5.53-to-5.49 advantage, although he is much more accurate at 61.36%. He also has a tremendous 4.55 takedown average and 1.40-to-1.21 submission average.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 299: Poirier vs. Saint-Denis odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Poirier +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Saint-Denis -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -105 | Under -125)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +300 | No -500)

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UFC 299: Poirier vs. Saint-Denis picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Saint-Denis (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return, and that’s quite a bit of risk against a veteran like Poirier (+165).

While Poirier is just 4-3 in his past 7 fights, the losses have been against the best of the best in the division. This certainly won’t be easy for Saint-Denis. However, the southpaw Frenchman should get the job done with his tremendous punching ability, and playing SAINT-DENIS BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-150) is a strong play.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-105) is a solid play. While we’re not picking Poirier to win, he certainly won’t go quietly into the Miami night, either. Saint-Denis will have to work, and work hard to get the knockout.

Don’t expect to see this one end until at least Rounds 3 or 4. As such, playing ROUND 3 (+450) and ROUND 4 (+600) for the exact round the fight will end is worth a look. While you’ll obviously lose 1 of the bets, if the fight ends in Rounds 3-4, you’ll still be quite a bit ahead.

No (-500): Will the fight go the distance? costs you 5 times your potential return, and that’s just too much risk for not nearly enough value.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC 299: Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 299 odds between Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round welterweight bout on the main card, Gilbert Burns and Jack Della Maddalena meet Saturday at UFC 299 at Kaseya Center in Miami. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 299: Burns vs. Della Maddalena odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPNews/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, and is on Pay-Per-View.

Records: Burns (22-6-0) | Della Maddalena (16-2-0)

Burns takes the walk looking to rebound from a unanimous-decision loss to Belal Muhammad at UFC 288 last time out in early May. He has ended up going the distance in 4 of his past 5 fights, with a 1st-round submission win over Neil Magny at UFC 283 as the only exception during the 5-fight stretch.

Della Maddalena has earned a pair of split-decision wins in his past 2 fights, including a win over Kevin Holland at Noche UFC in mid-September. Since making his UFC debut, he is a perfect 6-0, with 4 fights finishing inside the distance.

Della Maddalena holds a 2-inch reach advantage, and the switch-stance fighter is 10 years younger than the underdog. JDM also holds an impressive 7.20-to-3.36 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, and he is slightly more accurate with those strikes at 57.03% to 56.49% for Burns. The Brazilian fighter has a solid 1.95 takedown average, and 0.53 submission average, so the Aussie will likely be looking to stay upright.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 299: Burns vs. Della Maddalena odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Burns +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Della Maddalena -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -190 | Under +145)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +150 | No -210)

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UFC 299: Burns vs. Della Maddalena picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

DELLA MADDALENA (-160) is worth a look as a moderate favorite on the 2-way line. As long as he can avoid getting into a wrestling match on the canvas, where Burns (+130) has a slight advantage, the favorite will be in good shape.

Since arriving at the UFC level, he is a perfect 6-for-6, and he has done just enough to wow the judges with his technique in the past 2 split-decision wins. Don’t be surprised to see the Aussie need the help of the judges yet again. DELLA MADDALENA ON POINTS (+300) for the chance to multiple up by 3 times if too tempting to pass up.

Over/Under (O/U)

Over 1.5 Rounds (-190) is a little too expensive, costing nearly 2 times your potential return.

Instead, YES (+150): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is the way to go. Burns has had just 1 of his past 5 fights finish inside the distance, while again, Della Maddalena has had a pair of split-decision wins in his past 2 outings. As such, Yes is a nice value.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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