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UFC Fight Night 245: Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 245 odds between Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round middleweight bout in the main event, Anthony Hernandez and Michel Pereira meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 245 — also known as UFC Vegas 99 and UFC on ESPN+ 103 — at the UFC Apex. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 245: Hernandez vs. Pereira odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Records: Hernandez (12-2-0) | Pereira (31-11-0)

Hernandez streaks into this main event with 5 consecutive victories dating back to UFC 258. That includes a 2nd-round submission of Roman Kopylov at UFC 298 back on Feb. 17. He has finished inside the distance in 4 of his 5 victories during the win streak, and he has had just 1 decision in his 8 fights at the UFC level since Feb. 2, 2019.

For Pereira, he enters on an 8-bout win streak since being DQ’d against Diego Sanchez Feb. 15, 2020 in New Mexico. He has finished inside the distance in each of his past 3 outings, including a pair of 1st-round submission wins over Ihor Potieria and Michal Oleksiejczuk. Each of his past 3 wins have been finished in Round 1.

Hernandez holds a 2-inch reach advantage, while Pereira has a slight 5.16-to-4.30 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Hernandez is much more accurate with those strikes at 64.32%, while the Brazilian fighter has a 56.14% mark.

Hernandez is a lot more efficient on takedowns, too, posting a 6.62 takedown average, to 1.53 mark for Pereira. Hernandez has posted an impressive 2.99 submission average, to just 0.84 for Pereira.

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UFC Fight Night 245: Hernandez vs. Pereira odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Hernandez -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Pereira +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Over/under: 2.5 Rounds (Over +120 | Under -160)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +400 | No -700)

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UFC Fight Night 245: Hernandez vs. Pereira picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

HERNANDEZ (-135) is a strong play on the 2-way line, as he does much more right than Pereira (+110).

It’s Hernandez’s work in the ground-and-pound that sets him apart, and as long as he avoids the big shot for a knockout, he’ll get the job done.

Hernandez has won 3 of his past 5 fights by way of submission, and 5 of his past 8 fights have finished via the method, with 4 victories.

In fact, if you wanted to roll the dice on the 7-way line, playing HERNANDEZ BY SUBMISSION (+150), that’s a solid value at plus-money.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-160) is a nice play at this price.

This fight isn likely to end before the middle of Round 3. Hernandez has gone past 2:30 of Round 3 just once in the past 9 pro bouts, while Pereira hasn’t even seen Round 2 in the past 3 outings.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 244: Chidi Njokuani vs. Jared Gooden odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 244 odds between Chidi Njokuani vs. Jared Gooden, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round welterweight bout on the main card, Chidi Njokuani and Jared Gooden meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 244 — also known as UFC Vegas 98 and UFC on ESPN+ 102 — at the UFC Apex. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Night Night 244: Njokuani vs. Gooden odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Records: Njokuani (23-10-0) | Gooden (23-9-0)

The 35-year-old Njokuani halted a 3-bout losing skid, all at the middleweight division, with a split-decision win over Rhys McKee last time out in late March in his return to welterweight. It was just his 2nd fight to go the distance in 6 bouts at the UFC, with the other 4 resulting in KO/TKOs. He is 2-2 in those 4 fights which ended in knockout.

For Gooden, he is making his 2nd tour in the UFC. He was 1-3 with the promotion back from Nov. 21, 2020 to Oct. 9, 2021 before being dismissed. He returned with a unanimous-decision loss to Carlston Harris on March 11, 2023, before choking out Wellington Turman in the 2nd round on Dec. 2.

Njokuani has a 3-inch reach advantage, while Gooden holds a 5.08-to-4.09 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Both fighters aren’t terrible gifted in the ground game, and the difference in negligible in submission average.

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UFC Fight Night 244: Njokuani vs. Gooden odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Njokuani -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Gooden +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -165 | Under +135)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +150 | No -210)

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UFC Fight Night 244: Njokuani vs. Gooden picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

NJOKUANI (-165) is worth a look as a moderate favorite, as he will use his 3-inch reach advantage to pull Gooden (+135) in and out at his discretion.

The favorite won’t want to play around with the challenger too much in close quarters, but he will be able to push and pull him out, choosing the right time to strike and go for the kill. He is much better at welterweight than middleweight, when he was in over his head.

If you’re looking for a method of victory, NJOKUANI BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+150) at plus-money is worth a look, too.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-165) is worth playing, although it’s a bit on the expensive side.

Njokuani has ended up going the distance in 2 of his past 3 fights, while Gooden has gone the distance in 4 of his 6 bouts at the UFC level.

However, No (-210): Will the fight go the distance? is just a little too expensive. Stick with the Over/Under or the method, for much better results.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 244: Brad Tavares vs. Junyong Park odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 244 odds between Brad Tavares vs. Junyong Park, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round middleweight bout on the main card, Brad Tavares and Junyon Park meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 244 — also known as UFC Vegas 98 and UFC on ESPN+ 102 — at the UFC Apex. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Night Night 244: Tavares vs. Park odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Records: Tavares (20-10-0) | Park (17-6-0)

Tavares heads into this bout looking to bounce back from a 3rd-round KO/TKO against Gregory Rodrigues in mid-February, and he is just 1-3 in the past 4 bouts.

The 36-year-old fighter for Team Xtreme Couture has been with the promotion since making his debut at UFC 125 on New Year’s Day 2011. In the past 22 bouts since July 2, 2011, including TUF Finale fights, he has ended up going the distance in 16 of those outings.

Park is looking to rebound after a split-decision setback to Andre Muniz in early December. That halted a 4-fight win streak, including 3 straight submission victories from Oct. 2022 to July 2023.

Tavares holds a slight 1-inch reach advantage, while Park is ahead with a 4.53-to-3.38 significant strikes landed per minute. Park is much more accurate with those strikes at 58.77%, while Tavares checks in at 48.21%. Park is better in the takedown game, too, posting a 1.83 takedown average and 50.0% takedown accuracy percentage, while posting a 1.05 submission average.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC Fight Night 244: Tavares vs. Park odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Tavares +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Park -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -200 | No +150)

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UFC Fight Night 244: Tavares vs. Park picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

PARK (-190) is a little on the expensive side, but he isn’t a bad play if you were to include him in part of a multi-leg parlay.

While Tavares (+160) holds a slight lead in reach advantage, that’s about the only area he is ahead. He’ll want to avoid going down to the canvas with Park, or this will be a short outing. He has been involved in 3 submissions in his entire career, with a rear-naked choke loss to Court McGee June 16, 2010 at the TUF 11 Semifinal in his most recent bout via submission.

PARK BY SUBMISSION (+800), for the chance to multiply up by 8 times, is a tremendous value, and you need to make that part of wagers.

Over/Under (O/U)

NO (+150): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE is a great idea.

Park by submission is certainly worth a roll of the dice, and if that happens, both of these wagers go hand in hand.

Yes, Tavares has gone the distance in 16 of his past 22 professional bouts, but he has finished inside the distance in 2 of the past 3 outings.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 244: Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 244 odds between Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round flyweight bout in the main event, Brandon Royval and Tatsuro Taira meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 244 — also known as UFC Vegas 98 and UFC on ESPN+ 102 — at the UFC Apex. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Night Night 244: Royval vs. Taira odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Records: Royval (16-7-0) | Taira (16-0-0)

Royval got a crack at the championship at UFC 296, but he lost via unanimous decision to Alexandre Pantoja in mid-December. He bounced back with a split-decision win over Brandon Moreno, as he looks to position himself for another title chance. He has ended up going the distance in 2 straight, and 3 of the past 5 fights, while going 4-1 in the span.

If Royval wants to get back to a championship fight, he needs to take care of the rising prospect Taira, who has never lost in 16 career bouts, including 6 at the UFC level. Taira knocked out Alex Perez in the 2nd round in mid-June, and he has 4 finishes inside the distance in the past 5 outings.

Taira has a 2-inch reach advantage over Royval, while the southpaw has a 4.33-to-3.56 significant strikes landed per minute advantage over Taira. The Japanese fighter has a 2.35 takedown average, and a 2.09 submission average.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC Fight Night 244: Royval vs. Taira odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Royval +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | Taira -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -140 | Under +105)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +120 | No -165)

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UFC Fight Night 244: Royval vs. Taira picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

ROYVAL (+240) is hungry to get back to a championship fight, and the quickest way for the veteran to do that is to get past an unbeaten Taira (-300).

This is going to be a good fight, as Taira has been a punching machine in his time with the company, and he has really developed a good clinch game.

However, Royval can get the job done in a number of ways, either with the knockout, or submission. He’ll be looking to work the legs of Taira, trying to wow the judges.

ROYVAL ON POINTS (+400) is worth a roll of the dice for the chance to multiply up by 4 times.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (+120): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a strong play at plus-money.

Royval has ended up going the distance in 2 in a row, and 3 of the past 5 fights since Jan. 2022.

For Taira, while he has gone the distance just once in the past 5 fights, Royval has the tools to take him all the way, similar to the Edgar Chairez fight back at UFC 290.

If you’re not quite feeling a distance fight, OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (-140) is an alternative that isn’t too costly.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC 307: Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 307 odds between Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round middleweight bout on the main card, Roman Dolidze and Kevin Holland meet Saturday at UFC 307 at Delta Center in Salt Lake City. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC 307: Dolidze vs. Holland odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNews/ESPN+, and the main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.

Records: Dolidze (13-3-0) | Holland (26-11-0)

The Georgian fighter Dolidze stopped a 2-bout losing skid with a unanimous-decision win over Anthony Smith last time out at UFC 303 in late June. His previous setbacks were by majority decision to Nassourdine Imavov, and unanimous decision against Marvin Vettori. That means 3 straight fights have gone the distance, and 6 of his past 9 fights.

For Holland, he stopped Michal Oleksiejczuk via submission in 94 seconds at UFC 302 in early June. He also snapped a 2-bout losing streak which included a unanimous-decision loss to Michael Page and a split-decision loss to Jack Della Maddalena.

The 36-year-old Dolidze is 5 years older, and Holland holds a 5-inch reach advantage. Holland also has a 4.25-to-3.13 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while landing 61.22% of those strikes, while Dolidze lands 50.31% of those strikes.

In the ground game, Dolidze is a little better, posting a 1.26-to-0.84 takedown average advantage, while he is slightly more accurate on those takedowns at 40.0%. He also has a 1.14-to-0.60 submission average advantage.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 307: Dolidze vs. Holland odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Dolidze +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Holland -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -225 | Under +170)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -185 | No +140)

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UFC 307: Dolidze vs. Holland picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

HOLLAND (-150) is a strong bet straight up as a moderate favorite against Dolidze (+125).

The young fighter will use his tremendous reach advantage to push and pull Dolidze away at his discretion, picking and choosing his spots to get close when he needs to.

With the recent history of these 2 fighters, it’s very unlikely we end up getting a finish. Holland has needed the judges to determine a winner in 3 straight fights, while Dolidze has gone the distance in 2 of the past 3 bouts.

As such, playing HOLLAND BY DECISION (+175) at plus-money for the method of victory is also a very good wager.

Over/Under (O/U)

As far as the round betting is concerned, Yes (-185): Will the fight go the distance? is a little too costly. It will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s too much.

In addition, Over 2.5 Rounds (-225) will set you back more than 2 times your potential return, and that’s too pricey as well.

Stick to the 2-way line, and the method of victory.

PASS.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC 307: Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 307 odds between Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round women’s bantamweight championship bout in the co-main event, Raquel Pennington and Julianna Pena meet Saturday at UFC 307 at Delta Center in Salt Lake City. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC 307: Pennington vs. Pena odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNews/ESPN+, and the main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.

Records: Pennington (16-9-0) | Pena (12-5-0)

Pennington lost her 1st championship attempt against Amanda Nunes back in May 2018 at UFC 224. She fought hard to position herself for another chance at a strap, and she topped Mayra Bueno Silva via unanimous decision at UFC 297 in late January to finally become a champion. Now, she faces her 1st title defense.

Pennington has won 6 consecutive bouts, with 5 of those victories coming by way of decision. The lone finish was a 2nd-round submission against Macy Chiasson in Dec. 2021.

Pena steps into the octagon for the 1st time since suffering a unanimous-decision setback to Nunes back at UFC 277 in a title bout. She was trying to defend her belt after submitting Nunes at UFC 269 for her 1st title. Pena was supposed to fight a 3rd and deciding fight with Nunes at UFC 289, but Pena had to pull out due to broken ribs suffered in training camp.

Pena holds a 1.5-inch reach advantage over the champ, while Pennington has a 4.14-to-3.16 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Pena is slightly more accurate at 65.0%, to 60.24% for the champ. Pena’s ground game has been much better, too, and he dominates in takedown average (1.94) and takedown accuracy percentage (55.17%).

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 307: Pennington vs. Pena odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Pennington -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Pena +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -250 | No +175)

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UFC 307: Pennington vs. Pena picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

PENNINGTON (-165) is a solid bet to get the job done on the 2-way line.

While Pena (+135) has a slight reach advantage, and she is a little more accurate on her significant strikes, she hasn’t fought in over 26 months. It remains to be seen how her cardio will be after not having been involved in a meaningful fight since July 30, 2022.

In addition, Pennington is likely to take this the distance. She has ended up going the distance in 3 consecutive bouts, 8 of the past 9 fights, and 11 of the previous 13 outings since UFC 202. She wins regularly, but she just doesn’t get finishes.

As a result, also look to PENNINGTON BY DECISION (+100) at even-money for the method of victory.

Over/Under (O/U)

Yes (-250): Will the fight go the distance? will set you back 2 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not nearly enough reward.

Again, 11 of the past 13 fights have gone the distance for Pennington, while Pena has ended up needing the assistance of the judges to determine a winner in 4 of her previous 8 outings.

PASS.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC 307: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 307 odds between Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr., with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round light heavyweight championship bout in the co-main event, Alex Pereira and Khalil Rountree Jr. meet Saturday at UFC 307 at Delta Center in Salt Lake City. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNews/ESPN+, and the main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.

Records: Pereira (11-2-0) | Rountree Jr. (14-5-0)

The light heavyweight champion Pereira secured the strap at UFC 303 with his 2nd straight title defense last time out at UFC 303 against Jiri Prochazka. He originally plucked the belt from Prochazka at UFC 295, defended it at UFC 300 against Jamahal Hill, and then won the rematch with the Czechia-born fighter last time out.

Each of his past 3 victories have been via KO/TKO, with both wins over Prochazka coming in Round 2. He has had just one fight go the distance, a split-decision win over Jan Blachowicz at UFC 291, in the past 7 outings.

Rountree has won 5 straight fights to position himself for this title shot. He has picked up 4 victories via KO/TKO, with a split-decision win over Dustin Jacoby as the only exception during the span.

The champ takes the walk holding a 2 1/2-inch advantage over Rountree, while holding a 5.23-to-3.84 significant strikes landed per minute advantage over the southpaw. Pereira is super accurate with a 69.96% significant strikes accuracy percentage, and he has a slight 0.35-to-0.13 submission average lead.

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UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 1 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Pereira -450 (bet $450 to win $100) | Rountree Jr. +340 (bet $100 to win $340)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -125 | Under -105)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +550 | No -1200)

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UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Pereira (-450) is a stud, and a punching machine, who is fully expected to get the job done and keep his strap. However, betting his straight up will cost you 4 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not nearly enough reward.

Even as part of a multi-leg parlay, including Pereira sucks all of your value out of your ticket.

Instead, let’s get more specific. It’s hard to ignore the fact Pereira has 6 KO/TKOs in the past 7 bouts since UFC 276 when he dropped Sean Strickland in Round 1. However, even taking Pereira via KO/TKO or DQ on the 7-way line forces you to risk 4 times your potential return, and that’s too much.

Let’s go to round betting, taking PEREIRA IN ROUND 2 (+400) and PEREIRA IN ROUND 3 (+550) in a 2-round block. Yes, if he gets the win in Rounds 2 or 3, you’d lose one end, but you’d still be well ahead, too.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-1200): Will the fight go the distance? is way too costly. It should go without saying that betting such a big number is not a good long-term betting strategy.

As far as total rounds, OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-125) is worth a roll of the dice. We just need Pereira to win in the 2nd half of Round 2 or in Round 3 to make the round block betting above make sense, too.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 243: William Gomis vs. Joanderson Brito odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 243 odds for William Gomis vs. Joanderson Brito, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round featherweight bout on the main card, William Gomis and Joanderson Brito meet at UFC Fight Night 243 Saturday at Accor Arena in Paris, France. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 243: Gomis vs. Brito odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at noon ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 3 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.

Records: Gomis (13-2-0) | Brito (17-3-1)

Gomis is a perfect 3-for-3 since arriving at the UFC level. He has a pair of decision victories, and he had a KO/TKO in Round 3 against Yanis Ghemmouri last time out on Sept. 2, 2023.

The Frenchman will be making his 3rd appearance in as many events in his native France. In addition to the win over Ghemmouri, Gomis topped Jarno Errens via unanimous decision in Paris on Sept. 3, 2022.

Brito — nicknamed “Tubarao” — looks to extend his win streak to 6 straight bouts since losing via unanimous decision against Bill Algeo in January 2022. That win streak includes a TKO — doctor’s stoppage against Jack Shore at UFC 301 last time out on May 4. The 29-year-old has 5 straight finishes, including 3 wins in round 1.

The southpaw Gomis has a 1-inch reach advantage, but Brito has a 3.35-to-2.62 lead, while he also has a 60.15% significant strikes accuracy percentage to just 52.63% for the Frenchman. Brito has a 3.11 takedown average, and 76.92% takedown accuracy percentage, although Gomis has a slight 0.71-to-0.62 lead in submission average.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC Fight Night 243: Gomis vs. Brito odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated Friday at 9:11 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Gomis +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Brito -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -135 | Under +100)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +100 | No -135)

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UFC Fight Night 243: Gomis vs. Brito picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Brito (-350) will set you back 3½ times the potential return if you want to play him straight up. That’s way too much risk for not enough reward.

While Gomis (+260) is fighting in his native France, it is too risky to bet on him. While he has a slight reach advantage, nearly all other stats go in favor of the Brazilian.

For a better value, look to the 5-way line in “Method of Victory”, taking BRITO BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+100) at even-money for a much better value.

Over/Under (O/U)

Go with NO (-135): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? if you’re a little more conservative. If you’re a bit more adventurous, take a chance on UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+100) at even-money.

You could also get a little fancy, and go with round betting, and take the favorite in a 2-round block. Go with BRITO IN ROUND 2 (+400) and BRITO IN ROUND 3 (+600) for the win. Sure, you’ll lose 1 of the ends, even if he wins in rounds 2-3. But, if he doesn’t get the finish in 1 of the final 2 rounds, you’ll still be well ahead, too.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 243: Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 243 odds for Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round lightweight bout in the main event, Renato Moicano and Benoit Saint Denis meet at UFC Fight Night 243 Saturday at Accor Arena in Paris, France. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 243: Moicano vs. Saint Denis odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at noon ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 3 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.

Records: Moicano (19-5-1) | Saint Denis (13-2-0)

Moicano arrives in Paris looking for a 4-bout win streak, which would be a career best since arriving at the UFC level. He picked up a 2nd-round KO/TKO against Jalin Turner last time out at UFC 300 in April 2024. Prior to that, he had a unanimous-decision win over Drew Dober in February 2024, and he submitted Brad Riddell in Round 1 at UFC 281 back in 2022, showing his versatility.

The Brazilian fighter doesn’t tend to get the judges involved very often, as he has had just 2 decisions in the past 11 bouts, going 1-1 in those outings.

Saint Denis is looking to bounce back after a 2nd-round KO/TKO loss to Dustin Poirier at UFC 299 last time out in early March 2024. He has had 6 consecutive finishes, going 3-1 via KO/TKO in the span, while posting 2 submission wins since a unanimous-decision loss to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos at UFC 267 in his company debut on Oct. 30, 2021.

Saint Denis is 7 years younger, and he is fighting in his native France, so the southpaw has that going for him. He also holds a 1-inch reach advantage, and he leads 5.70-to-4.38 in significant strikes landed per minute. Saint Denis has a 62.71% significant strikes accuracy

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UFC Fight Night 243: Moicano vs. Saint Denis odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 8:27 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Moicano +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Saint Denis -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over +140 | Under -185)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +450 | No -800)

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UFC Fight Night 243: Moicano vs. Saint Denis picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

The favorite Saint Denis (-300) will cost 3 times the potential return, and that’s just a little too expensive straight up on the 2-way line.

While Moicano (+240) is getting a little long in the tooth, at least in terms of UFC age, he is still a wily veteran, and quite dangerous.

Let’s get a little more specific instead. Taking SAINT DENIS BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-210) on the 5-way line is still a little too expensive, but that’s your best bet, especially as part of a multi-leg parlay in conjunction with other bouts.

Over/Under (O/U)

There is no reason to consider No (-800): Will the fight go the distance? as it will set you back 8 times your potential return.

However, OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (+140) at plus-money is a good play. Saint Denis is expected to get the victory, but Moicano will make him work for it in his native Paris. Don’t expect the veteran to go quietly into the night.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 243: Nassourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 243 odds between Nassourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round middleweight bout on the main card, Nassourdine Imavov and Brendan Allen meet at UFC Fight Night 243 Saturday at Accor Arena in Paris, France. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 243: Imavov vs. Allen odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at noon ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 3 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.

Records: Imavov (14-4-0) | Allen (24-5-0)

Imavov has picked up 2 straight wins since a no-contest against Chris Curtis at UFC 289. The victories are impressive, too, coming by majority decision against Roman Dolidze and via KO/TKO in round 4 against Jared Cannonier, both in main events.

He is 5-1-1 in the past 7 bouts, with his lone setback coming by way of unanimous decision against Sean Strickland in another main event in Jan. 2023.

Allen has racked up 7 straight fights since a KO/TKO loss to Curtis, including a split-decision victory in a revenge match, also against Curtis. Prior to that, Allen had 4 submission victories. In the 7-bout streak, he has 5 wins via submission, and 2 decision wins.

Both fighters have a reach of 75 inches, while Imavov has a slight 4.58-to-3.98 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. The strike accuracy percentage difference is rather negligible, with Allen checking in at 59.29%, and Imavov at 58.88%. Allen is much better on takedown average at 1.74, to 0.98 for Imavov, while the underdog Allen has a 47.22% accuracy on takedowns, to just 36.00% for Imavov.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC Fight Night 243: Imavov vs. Allen odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 7:59 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Imavov -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Allen +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -165 | Under +125)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -120 | No -110)

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UFC Fight Night 243: Imavov vs. Allen picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

While Imavov (-200) is the favorite in his native France, ALLEN (+165) is an attractive play straight up on the 2-way line.

It’s never easy to go into hostile territory and get the victory. Imavov will likely feed off the energy of the crowd. But, Allen has very similar stats to Imavov, and he is much better on takedowns. It’s a coin flip when these fighters get to the mat — as they’re equally strong in the ground game.

Over/Under (O/U)

Roll with NO (-110): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?, as we should get a finish here.

While Imavov has gone the distance in 3 of his past 5 fights, he had 3 KO/TKO wins and a no contest in the past 8 bouts.

For Allen, he had a decision last time out, but prior to that he has 4 straight submission victories. It wouldn’t be surprising to see this fight end before the judges need to figure out a winner. UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+125) is an attractive play at plus-money, too, if you’re a little less conservative.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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