Tag: UFC Fight Night 228 odds lines picks and predictions best bets

UFC Fight Night 228: Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson-Gomez odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 228 odds between Marina Rodriguez and Michelle Waterson-Gomez, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round women’s strawweight bout on the main card, Marina Rodriguez and Michelle Waterson-Gomez meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 228 — also known as UFC Vegas 79 — at UFC Apex. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s around the UFC Fight Night 228: Rodriguez vs. Waterson-Gomez odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ starting at 4 p.m. ET with the main card following on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Records: Rodriguez (16-3-2) | Waterson-Gomez (18-11-0)

Rodriguez has dropped the past 2 fights, falling to Virna Jandiroba via unanimous decision at UFC 288 in May, while falling via KO/TKO in the 3rd round against Amanda Lemos in November 2022. The Brazilian fighter had won 4 straight fights prior to those setbacks, including 3 decision victories. Since arriving at the UFC level, Rodriguez has gone the distance in 9 of 11 fights.

Waterson-Gomez, a.k.a. “The Karate Hottie”, has dropped 3 straight fights, and 5 of the past 6 bouts. That includes a split-decision loss to Luana Pinheiro at UFC 287 in April in her return after having a child, as well as a submission loss to Lemos in July 2022.

Rodriguez has a 3-inch reach advantage and holds a 4.58-to-3.63 significant strikes landed per minute edge. If Waterson-Gomez has any advantage in this fight, it’s on the canvas. She has a 1.40 takedown average, and a 0.70 submission average, to just 0.17 in both categories for Rodriguez.

Watch  this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC Fight Night 228: Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson-Gomez odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:07 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Rodriguez -320 (bet $320 to win $100) | Waterson-Gomez +260 (bet $100 to win $260)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -380 | Under +270)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -310 | No +225)

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UFC Fight Night 228: Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson-Gomez picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Rodriguez (-320) will cost you more than 3 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not enough return. Instead, you must get a little more specific.

Waterson-Gomez (+260) is skidding, with 3 straight setbacks, and losses in 5 of the past 6 fights. However, she makes the opposition work, regardless of the result, going the distance in 9 of the past 10 fights dating back to Dec. 2, 2017.

As such, playing METHOD OF VICTORY: RODRIGUEZ BY POINTS (-155) is not priced out of line. Both of these fighters tend to let the judges hash out the winner, and Rodriguez should do enough to wow them to get her arm raised.

Over/Under (O/U)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-380) and Yes: Will the fight go the distance (-310) are both way too expensive. Each of these fighters has had very few finishes in their UFC careers, and both of these props should be avoided. Focus on the method of victory instead.

AVOID.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 228: Bryce Mitchell vs. Dan Ige odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 228 odds between Bryce Mitchell and Dan Ige, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round featherweight bout on the main card, Bryce Mitchell and Dan Ige meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 228 — also known as UFC Vegas 79 — at UFC Apex. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s around the UFC Fight Night 228: Mitchell vs. Ige odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ starting at 4 p.m. ET with the main card following on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Records: Mitchell (15-2-0) | Ige (17-6-0)

Mitchell is looking to bounce back after a 2nd-round submission loss against Ilia Topuria at UFC 282 last time out in Dec. 2022. That stunning setback snapped a 6-bout win streak, including his first 5 fights at the UFC level. He had gone the distance in the 3 previous fights before tapping out against Topuria.

Ige has fought his way back from a 3-bout losing streak, all via unanimous decision, to pick up a KO/TKO win over Damon Jackson in January and a unanimous-decision victory over Nate Landwehr last time out at UFC 289 in June.

The southpaw Mitchell is 4 years younger than Ige, while the underdog holds a 1-inch reach advantage. Ige also has a 3.96-to-2.48 significant strikes landed per minute edge. While that is impressive, Mitchell has managed a tremendous 71.96% significant strikes accuracy percentage to just 50.03% for Ige.

Mitchell is much more proficient in the takedown game, too, posting a 3.26 takedown average, and 44.19% takedown accuracy percentage. He also has an overwhelming 1.71-to-0.31 submission average advantage over Ige.

Watch  this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC Fight Night 228: Bryce Mitchell vs. Dan Ige odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:55 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Mitchell -205 (bet $205 to win $100) | Ige +172 (bet $100 to win $172)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -235 | Under +180)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -196 | No +152)

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UFC Fight Night 228: Bryce Mitchell vs. Dan Ige picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Mitchell (-205) will cost you just a little over 2 times your potential return, and that’s just a little too much for my liking. My personal limit for a standalone moneyline play is -180, although if you tossed the favorite into a multi-fighter parlay, it wouldn’t be the end of the world.

However, METHOD OF VICTORY: MITCHELL BY POINTS (-105) is a much better value at almost even money. He has gone the distance in 3 of his past 4 fights, and 5 of the past 7 outings overall, winning all 5 of those bouts.

Ige is just 3-4 in the past 7 fights overall, but he has made the opposition work, going the distance in 4 of the past 5 fights, and 5 of the past 7, with unanimous-decision losses in 4 of those 5 bouts.

Over/Under (O/U)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-235) and Yes: Will the fight go the distance (-196) are each quite costly. Like betting Mitchell straight up on the 2-way line, I could live with playing Yes: Will the fight go the distance, if you were able to include it as part of a multi-part parlay. AVOID, if you’re considering just playing it as a singular bet.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 228: Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 228 odds between Rafael Fiziev and Mateusz Gamrot, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round lightweight bout in the main event, Rafael Fiziev and Mateusz Gamrot meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 228 — also known as UFC Vegas 79 — at UFC Apex. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s around the UFC Fight Night 228: Fiziev vs. Gamrot odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ starting at 4 p.m. ET with the main card following on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Records: Fiziev (12-2) | Gamrot (22-2)

Fiziev is looking to bounce back after suffering a majority-decision loss against Justin Gaethje at UFC 286 in March, his first loss at the UFC level since his debut with the company on April 20, 2019. The setback halted a 6-bout win streak, which included 3 KO/TKO wins and 3 unanimous-decision victories.

After a unanimous-decision loss to Beneil Dariush at UFC 280 in Oct. 2022, Gamrot got back on track with a split-decision victory over Jalin Turner at UFC 285 in March. He has needed the judges to decide a winner in each of his past 3 fights as his last fight to finish inside the distance was a 2nd-round KO/TKO against Diego Ferreira in mid-December 2021.

Physically, these fighters are very similar. Gamrot has a 2-inch height advantage, while Fiziev has a half-inch reach advantage. However, Fiziev has a large 5.06-to-3.03 significant strikes landed per minute advantage over the southpaw, while Gamrot is a little more accurate on those strikes at 58.45% compared to 53.12%.

Gamrot is also very good on the canvas, posting a 4.54 takedown average, a category where the Azerbaijani favorite barely registers at 0.31. Gamrot also has a 0.17 submission average to 0.00 for Fiziev. The latter hasn’t had a submission win or loss since Oct. 10, 2016, a 1st-round win over Gunduz Nabiev at MMA Kyrgyzstan.

Watch  this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC Fight Night 228: Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:43 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Fiziev -154 (bet $154 to win $100) | Gamrot +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
  • Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -122 | Under -104)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -108 | No -118)

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UFC Fight Night 228: Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

FIZIEV (-154) was close to scooting into the picture for a title shot but the loss to Gaethje knocked him down a peg. He’s still ranked No. 6 in the division, with Gamrot ranked No. 7, so for all intents and purposes, this is an eliminator bout, as the winner is still very much in the mix, while the loser of the fight might tumble down the rankings a little further.

This is going to be a war and a very hotly contested fight. I just don’t see a finish, with both fighters refusing to lose and eating a lot of punches. The judges will need to offer their 2 cents, and when the dust clears, I believe it will be FIZIEV BY POINTS (+260) in the METHOD OF VICTORY.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 4.5 ROUNDS (-122) isn’t priced out of line. There is some risk, but Fiziev has gone the distance in 2 of his past 4 fights, and 4 of the previous 7 outings. Gamrot has ended up going the distance in each of his past 3 bouts, too. YES: FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE (-108) is a decent play, too, if you just can’t bring yourself to take Fiziev and do not wish to declare a winner.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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