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In a 5-round lightweight bout in the main event, Rafael Fiziev and Mateusz Gamrot meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 228 — also known as UFC Vegas 79 — at UFC Apex. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s around the UFC Fight Night 228: Fiziev vs. Gamrot odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ starting at 4 p.m. ET with the main card following on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.
Records: Fiziev (12-2) | Gamrot (22-2)
Fiziev is looking to bounce back after suffering a majority-decision loss against Justin Gaethje at UFC 286 in March, his first loss at the UFC level since his debut with the company on April 20, 2019. The setback halted a 6-bout win streak, which included 3 KO/TKO wins and 3 unanimous-decision victories.
After a unanimous-decision loss to Beneil Dariush at UFC 280 in Oct. 2022, Gamrot got back on track with a split-decision victory over Jalin Turner at UFC 285 in March. He has needed the judges to decide a winner in each of his past 3 fights as his last fight to finish inside the distance was a 2nd-round KO/TKO against Diego Ferreira in mid-December 2021.
Physically, these fighters are very similar. Gamrot has a 2-inch height advantage, while Fiziev has a half-inch reach advantage. However, Fiziev has a large 5.06-to-3.03 significant strikes landed per minute advantage over the southpaw, while Gamrot is a little more accurate on those strikes at 58.45% compared to 53.12%.
Gamrot is also very good on the canvas, posting a 4.54 takedown average, a category where the Azerbaijani favorite barely registers at 0.31. Gamrot also has a 0.17 submission average to 0.00 for Fiziev. The latter hasn’t had a submission win or loss since Oct. 10, 2016, a 1st-round win over Gunduz Nabiev at MMA Kyrgyzstan.
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UFC Fight Night 228: Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:43 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Fiziev -154 (bet $154 to win $100) | Gamrot +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
- Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -122 | Under -104)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -108 | No -118)
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UFC Fight Night 228: Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
FIZIEV (-154) was close to scooting into the picture for a title shot but the loss to Gaethje knocked him down a peg. He’s still ranked No. 6 in the division, with Gamrot ranked No. 7, so for all intents and purposes, this is an eliminator bout, as the winner is still very much in the mix, while the loser of the fight might tumble down the rankings a little further.
This is going to be a war and a very hotly contested fight. I just don’t see a finish, with both fighters refusing to lose and eating a lot of punches. The judges will need to offer their 2 cents, and when the dust clears, I believe it will be FIZIEV BY POINTS (+260) in the METHOD OF VICTORY.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 4.5 ROUNDS (-122) isn’t priced out of line. There is some risk, but Fiziev has gone the distance in 2 of his past 4 fights, and 4 of the previous 7 outings. Gamrot has ended up going the distance in each of his past 3 bouts, too. YES: FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE (-108) is a decent play, too, if you just can’t bring yourself to take Fiziev and do not wish to declare a winner.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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