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In a 3-round women’s strawweight bout on the main card, Marina Rodriguez and Michelle Waterson-Gomez meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 228 — also known as UFC Vegas 79 — at UFC Apex. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s around the UFC Fight Night 228: Rodriguez vs. Waterson-Gomez odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ starting at 4 p.m. ET with the main card following on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.
Records: Rodriguez (16-3-2) | Waterson-Gomez (18-11-0)
Rodriguez has dropped the past 2 fights, falling to Virna Jandiroba via unanimous decision at UFC 288 in May, while falling via KO/TKO in the 3rd round against Amanda Lemos in November 2022. The Brazilian fighter had won 4 straight fights prior to those setbacks, including 3 decision victories. Since arriving at the UFC level, Rodriguez has gone the distance in 9 of 11 fights.
Waterson-Gomez, a.k.a. “The Karate Hottie”, has dropped 3 straight fights, and 5 of the past 6 bouts. That includes a split-decision loss to Luana Pinheiro at UFC 287 in April in her return after having a child, as well as a submission loss to Lemos in July 2022.
Rodriguez has a 3-inch reach advantage and holds a 4.58-to-3.63 significant strikes landed per minute edge. If Waterson-Gomez has any advantage in this fight, it’s on the canvas. She has a 1.40 takedown average, and a 0.70 submission average, to just 0.17 in both categories for Rodriguez.
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UFC Fight Night 228: Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson-Gomez odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:07 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Rodriguez -320 (bet $320 to win $100) | Waterson-Gomez +260 (bet $100 to win $260)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -380 | Under +270)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -310 | No +225)
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UFC Fight Night 228: Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson-Gomez picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Rodriguez (-320) will cost you more than 3 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not enough return. Instead, you must get a little more specific.
Waterson-Gomez (+260) is skidding, with 3 straight setbacks, and losses in 5 of the past 6 fights. However, she makes the opposition work, regardless of the result, going the distance in 9 of the past 10 fights dating back to Dec. 2, 2017.
As such, playing METHOD OF VICTORY: RODRIGUEZ BY POINTS (-155) is not priced out of line. Both of these fighters tend to let the judges hash out the winner, and Rodriguez should do enough to wow them to get her arm raised.
Over/Under (O/U)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-380) and Yes: Will the fight go the distance (-310) are both way too expensive. Each of these fighters has had very few finishes in their UFC careers, and both of these props should be avoided. Focus on the method of victory instead.
AVOID.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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