UFC Fight Night 173 betting picks

UFC on ESPN 11: Alexander Volkov vs. Curtis Blaydes odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 11 fight between Alexander Volkov and Curtis Blaydes, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and bets.

[jwplayer 4MmTjNiy]

Alexander Volkov and Curtis Blaydes square off in a heavyweight bout on the main card at UFC on ESPN 11 – also known as UFC Fight Night 173 – Saturday at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the main card set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.

Blaydes (13-2) enters the octagon with a sparkling record, and “Razor” is on a three-bout win streak since being dropped by Francis Ngannou in the headline event Nov. 24, 2018. In fact, Blaydes is 0-2 against Ngannou, but 13-0 with one no contest in his 14 other professional bouts. His last two victories – against Junior Dos Santos in the main event Jan. 25 and against Shamil Abdurakhimov Sept. 7, 2019 at UFC 242 – were Round 2 knockouts. Four of Blaydes’ past five outings have finished inside the distance, including four KO/TKO (3-1) endings. He enters this event leading all active heavyweights with a 53:36 control time and 52.8 control-time percentage. In addition, he leads the class with a 43:03 top-position time, and 42.4 top-position percentage. Blaydes is also tops with 45 takedowns landed and a 55.6 takedown-accuracy percentage, and he knows how to avoid a punch, leading the class with just 1.86 strikes absorbed per minute.

Volkov (31-7) enters this one looking to building upon his unanimous decision victory over Greg Hardy Nov. 9, 2019. Volkov has posted five wins in six fights at the UFC level, including a pair of KO/TKO wins and three unanimous decisions wins. His only setback was at UFC 229 Oct. 6, 2018 when he was decked by Derrick Lewis for the KO/TKO. Volkov’s calling card is his devastating punch, and he is third in the heavyweight division with a 59.8 significant strike-accuracy percentage, while checking in seventh among active heavyweights with 557 significant strikes landed. He also leads the division with an outstanding 6.19 significant strikes landed per minute and a 3.42 striking differential. On the plus side, he is tops in the heavyweight class with a 59.5 significant strike defense, too, and is No. 1 among heavyweights with an 82.8 takedown-defense percentage.

Want to place a bet on UFC Fight Night 173? Place bets at BetMGM online in CO, IN, NJ and WV! New customer offer: Risk-free first bet! Visit BetMGM for terms and conditions. Bet now!

Alexander Volkov vs. Curtis Blaydes betting odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday, June 19 at 3:55 a.m. ET.

Blaydes (-400) is quite expensive at this price, so you’ll have to be a little creative. He should be able to push past Volkov (+305) in what is expected to be a brawl. However, Blaydes is more than just a puncher, as he has strong takedown ability and work on the canvas.

Taking KO/TKO/DQ (-313) for the method of victory by either fighter is a bit of an expensive proposition, too. I think the best bet here, and it’s not as costly, is rolling with BLAYDES BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (-200) on the 5-way line. You have a little wiggle room with how Blaydes wins, and the only way you lose is if it goes to the judges, or, of course, Volkov pulls the upset.

As far as length of the fight, the odds are heavily in favor of this bout finishing inside the distance. No (-400) on “Will the fight go the distance?” is also a lot of chalk to eat. I expect this to be a brawl, but I think it goes into the second half of Round 2, at the very least. Therefore, the best bet on bout length is taking OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-176).

New to sports betting? A winning $10 bet on Blaydes (-400) to win outright on the 2-way line returns just $2.50 in profit. A $10 play on Blaydes (-200) to win by KO/TKO, DQ or Submission on the 5-way line fetches a profit of $5. A $10 wager on the Over 1.5 (-176) rounds nets a profit of $5.68.

To watch the full card, sign up for ESPN+ now.

If you want some action on this MMA bout, place your wagers at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and analysis, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @JoeWilliamsVI on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=2559]

UFC on ESPN 11: Josh Emmett vs. Shane Burgos odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 11 fight between Josh Emmett and Shane Burgos, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and bets.

[jwplayer amnFWwdt]

Josh Emmett and Shane Burgos lock horns in a featherweight bout on the main card at UFC on ESPN 11 – also known as UFC Fight Night 173 – Saturday at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the main card set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.

Emmett (15-2) heads into the octagon with a sparkling record, looking to add to his win column. However, he has a five-inch disadvantage both in height and reach against Burgos (13-1).

Emmett enters fifth in the featherweight division with the shortest average fight time at 8:57, and ranks second among active featherweights with eight knockdowns landed. Each of his past four bouts have ended via KO/TKO, winning three of those battles. Like Emmett, Burgos has seen each of his past four fights finish inside the distance, winning three of four, including a pair of submission wins and a KO/TKO of Makwan Amirkhani at UFC 244 last time out on Nov. 2, 2019.

Burgos is tied for fourth among all active featherweights with six knockdowns landed, and is fourth in the class with a 1.07 knockdown average per 15 minutes. He is also an effective puncher, posting 597 significant strikes landed, ninth among featherweights, and is fifth in the class with a 50.3 significant strike-accuracy percentage. That equates to an amazing 7.09 significant strikes landed per minute, tops among active featherweights, ahead of the likes of Max Holloway (6.49) and Conor McGregor (5.53) to name a few, while posting a 1.75 striking differential. While that’s all well and good, Burgos is tremendous defensively, sitting at the top of the division with a 72.0 significant strike-defense percentage, while absorbing just 2.63 strikes per minute.

Neither fighter is particularly strong in the takedown game, but Burgos is second in the class with a 90.9 takedown-defense percentage.

Want to place a bet on UFC Fight Night 173? Place bets at BetMGM online in CO, IN, NJ and WV! New customer offer: Risk-free first bet! Visit BetMGM for terms and conditions. Bet now!

Josh Emmett vs. Shane Burgos betting odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday, June 19 at 4:30 a.m. ET.

Burgos (-143) is a slight favorite over Emmett (+120) on the 2-way line, but frankly, this one could go either way. The best bet, based upon each fighter’s recent history, is playing NO (-200): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? Both fighters have finished inside the distance in each of their past four outings. If I had to pick a winner, I’d take BURGOS BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+160) on the 5-way method of victory line, but only on a very small-unit play.

New to sports betting? A $10 bet on Burgos (-143) to win outright on the 2-way line returns $6.99 in profit. A $10 play on Burgos (+160) to win by KO/TKO, DQ or Submission on the 5-way line fetches a profit of $16. A $10 wager on No (-200): Will the fight go the distance? nets a profit of $5.

To watch the full card, sign up for ESPN+ now.

If you want some action on this MMA bout, place your wagers at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and analysis, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @JoeWilliamsVI on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=2559]

UFC on ESPN 11: Raquel Pennington vs. Marion Reneau odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 11 fight between Raquel Pennington and Marion Reneau, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and bets.

[jwplayer NPzGxq00]

Raquel Pennington and Marion Reneau square off in a women’s bantamweight bout on the main card at UFC on ESPN 11 – also known as UFC Fight Night 173 – Saturday at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the main card set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.

Pennington (10-9) heads into this one with a 1-3 record across her past four bouts, although losses to Holly Holm at UFC 246 (Jan. 18), Germaine de Randamie at UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez (Nov. 10, 2018) and Amanda Nunes at UFC 224 (May 12, 2018) is nothing to be ashamed of. Those three ladies have been at the top of the division for a while now. Before Pennington’s 1-3 run, she was on a four-bout win streak, which saw her get a chance at the title against Nunes at UFC 224. Pennington proved she isn’t quite ready for prime time, but she is always a tough out since she is a grinder. She has gone the distance in three straight and six of the past seven. In fact, Pennington ranks No. 1 in the women’s bantamweight division with five decision wins, and is tops in total fight time at 2:52:33.

Reneau (9-5-1) is on a two-bout skid, falling to Yana Kunitskaya March 9, 2019, and Cat Zingano July 14, 2018. Reneau’s last victory came in a submission win over Sara McMann Feb. 24, 2018, so she is itching to get off the schneid. Three of her past five outings have ended up going the distance, and six of her 10 fights at the UFC level have been decided by the judges. Reneau is seventh in the class in average fight time at 12:51, while checking in eighth with 3.46 significant strikes landed per minute to 3.11 for Pennington. Reneau and Pennington are also very good at significant strike defense, with Reneau at 65.2 percent and Pennington at 63.6. Both are at the top of their class, tied with nine submission attempts, too.

Want to place a bet on UFC Fight Night 173? Place bets at BetMGM online in CO, IN, NJ and WV! New customer offer: Risk-free first bet! Visit BetMGM for terms and conditions. Bet now!

Raquel Pennington vs. Marion Reneau betting odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday, June 19 at 5 a.m. ET.

PENNINGTON (-179) is a moderate favorite in this battle between division veterans, with Reneau (+150) likely headed for a third straight setback. While Pennington is expected to win, the best bet here is taking YES (-304): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? Pennington is a grinder who doesn’t knock opponents out, and seems a little apprehensive about getting mixed up in the ground game, too. PENNINGTON (+110) BY DECISION is also worth a play.

New to sports betting? A $10 bet on Pennington (-179) to win outright returns a profit of $5.59. A $10 wager on Yes (-304) for the fight to go the distance fetches a return of just $ 3.29. A $10 play on Pennington (+110) to win by decision returns a profit of $11.

To watch the full card, sign up for ESPN+ now.

If you want some action on this MMA bout, place your wagers at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and analysis, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @JoeWilliamsVI on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=2559]

UFC on ESPN 11: Belal Muhammad vs. Lyman Good odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 11 fight between Belal Muhammad and Lyman Good, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and bets.

[jwplayer 4MmTjNiy]

Belal Muhammad and Lyman Good will battle in a welterweight bout on the main card at UFC on ESPN 11 – also known as UFC Fight Night 173 – Saturday at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the main card set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.

Muhammad (16-3) dumped Takashi Sato by submission at UFC 242 in his most recent showing Sept. 7, 2019, giving him back-to-back victories and six wins in his past seven matches. The submission was a rarity, however, as six of those previous seven fights went the distance. He is strong on the mat, ranking seventh in bottom position time at 3:12. Good (21-5) is even better, ranking second in the division with a 0:40 bottom position time, and 1.68 bottom position percentage.

Good will be looking to throw hands early and often, posting 5.32 strikes landed per minute – he is third in the division with a 1.86 striking differential. Good is tremendous at avoiding the big blows, too, posting a 67.4 significant strike-defense percentage, second in the division. He has alternated wins and losses in his five fights at the UFC level, with four of the bouts ending inside the distance, including a KO/TKO Round 3 win at UFC 244 over Chance Rencountre last time out on Nov. 2, 2019.

Want to place a bet on UFC Fight Night 173? Place bets at BetMGM online in CO, IN, NJ and WV! New customer offer: Risk-free first bet! Visit BetMGM for terms and conditions. Bet now!

Belal Muhammad vs. Lyman Good betting odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday, June 19 at 5:15 a.m. ET.

GOOD (+105) is worth a small-unit play against Muhammad (-125) in what should be a fairly entertaining affair. Both of these guys can bomb, and it will be interesting to see if Good can continue his outstanding ability to avoid the big blow. His significant strike defense has been on point in the fledgling days of his UFC career. While Good has seen his fights end rather early at times, Muhammad is much more methodical, thus why YES (-154): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a decent amount of chalk to eat. Taking GOOD BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+200) could help you double up, too.

New to sports betting? A $10 bet on Good (+105) returns a profit of $10.50. A $10 wager on Yes (-154): Will the fight go the distance? pays a profit of $6.49, while a $10 bet on Good (+200) winning by KO/TKO or Submission doubles your money for a profit of $20.

To watch the full card, sign up for ESPN+ now.

If you want some action on this MMA bout, place your wagers at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and analysis, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @JoeWilliamsVI on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=2559]

UFC on ESPN 11: Jim Miller vs. Roosevelt Roberts odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 11 fight between Jim Miller and Roosevelt Roberts, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and bets.

[jwplayer 4MmTjNiy]

Jim Miller and Roosevelt Roberts meet in a catchweight bout (155 pounds) on the main card at UFC on ESPN 11 – also known as UFC Fight Night 173 – Saturday at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the main card set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.

Miller (31-14) heads into this one with plenty of experience, but he has rather long odds against the up-and-comer Roberts (10-1). The latter towers over the veteran Miller, standing six inches taller with a two-inch reach advantage over the southpaw. Miller suffered a unanimous decision setback to Scott Holtzman last time out, Feb. 15 at Rio Rancho, N.M. The loss snapped a streak of five straight fights finishing inside the distance for Miller. In fact, before the loss to Holtzman, Miller had three wins and a loss, each by submission. Miller has posted 2.83 strikes per minute, landing just 40.77 percent, so he has the potential to rain himself out early. He also has a takedown average of 1.69, while posting a takedown percentage of 41.76.

Roberts topped Brok Weaver in Round 2 by submission May 30 on the Woodley-Burns Fight Night card, and has posted three wins in four outings since reaching the UFC level. Five of Roberts’ 10 career professional wins have come via submission, with the guillotine his choke of choice. He also has three wins by TKO (punches), so he is anything but a one-trick pony.

Want to place a bet on UFC Fight Night 173? Place bets at BetMGM online in CO, IN, NJ and WV! New customer offer: Risk-free first bet! Visit BetMGM for terms and conditions. Bet now!

Jim Miller vs. Roosevelt Roberts betting odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday, June 19 at 5:45 a.m. ET.

Roberts (-250) will cost you a pretty penny, and he is just not worth the risk against the crafty veteran Miller (+200) – at least not worth the risk on the 2-way line. Instead, look to ROBERTS BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+140), which is a much better value, and a sound play as long as he obviously doesn’t win by decision. As such, if you’re going to take Roberts to win by knockout or submission, rolling with the UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-112) is also highly recommended.

New to sports betting? A $10 bet on Roberts (-250) returns a profit of just $4. A $10 play on Roberts by KO/TKO, DQ or submission (+140) fetches a profit of $14, while a $10 bet on the Under 2.5 rounds (-112) returns a net profit of $8.93.

To watch the full card, sign up for ESPN+ now.

If you want some action on this MMA bout, place your wagers at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and analysis, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @JoeWilliamsVI on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=2559]