The No. 23 UCF Knights (9-3, 6-2 AAC) and No. 18 Tulane Green Wave (10-2, 7-1) meet for the American Athletic Conference Championship on Saturday. Kickoff at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the UCF vs. Tulane odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Central Florida scuffled on the road against South Florida last Saturday, but the Knights beat the underdog Bulls 46-39 on a TD scored in the final minute of play, although they came up well short of covering the 19.5-point spread. Central Florida, No. 22 in the College Football Playoff rankings, is 4-1 in its last 5 games, and that stretch includes a 38-31 win at Tulane Nov. 12.
The Green Wave, tabbed 18th by the CFP committee, beat then-No. 21 Cincinnati 27-24 Saturday. Tulane was favored by 1 point in a game that saw the 2 sides equally divvy up points in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters. RB Tyjae Spears had 181 rushing yards and 2 TDs and has rushed for 120 or more yards in 6 straight games and rolled up 1,177 rushing yards this season.
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UCF at Tulane odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 3:13 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: UCF +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Tulane -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): UCF +3.5 (-108) | Tulane -3.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 57 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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UCF at Tulane picks and predictions
Prediction
Tulane 28, UCF 27
Moneyline
The KNIGHTS (+155) beat Tulane last month and are a lean at these outright prices, but pass if the line gets any cheaper.
Against the spread
The Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. In this series, the underdog has won 4 in a row ATS.
The 1-point-underdog Knights jumped out to a 24-7 lead in their Nov. conquest of Tulane. For the game, UCF outgained the Green Wave 468 yards to 391. On offense, the Knights do a good job staying on schedule, while Tulane is a bit more reliant on big plays.
Central Florida also boasts an impactful defensive line and does well to create havoc at all three levels. UCF has the AAC’s top red-zone defense: the Knights allowed TDs on just 44% of visits in the regular season. That figures as a key against a Tulane offense that has been efficient in punching in drives.
The back-to-back ATS losses against back-to-back ATS wins is an interesting, and lately, profitable angle.
UCF +3.5 (-108) is worth a partial-unit play and go in with the rest if a +4 becomes available.
Over/Under
Rain is in the forecast and this meeting would seem destined for more of a mid-range score than the last one.
TAKE THE UNDER 57 (-112) as a partial-unit play.
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