Now over a month into the college basketball season, there have been enough games to make confident assessments of the upcoming draft class.
There is still quite some time until this list starts to solidify as some teams will soon begin their regular-season conference play, which offers a better picture of the talent pool in the NCAA this season.
While there are some players who will give us a better idea of their draft stock in the coming weeks, there are others we will still have to wait a bit longer. Unfortunately for the Memphis Tigers and basketball fans around the world, projected lottery pick James Wiseman will be out a dozen games with a suspension. Similarly in the NBL overseas, LaMelo Ball and RJ Hampton will miss extended time due to injury.
Regardless, the following is our best assessment of the players we think will become first-round picks based on what we have seen thus far. For our mock drafts in later editions, we will begin to factor in team fit as well.
1. Anthony Edwards, Georgia
Anthony Edwards was an AAU star, averaging 21.0 points and 6.1 rebounds per game on the Under Armour Circuit. Since playing for Georgia, the 6-foot-5 point-forward is a high-usage guard with a respectable FG% from three-point range. More than half of his connections from downtown have been unassisted, showing that he is more than capable of creating his own shot. On the defensive end, the freshman currently leads his conference in steals per game (2.2) and has one of the best steal rates (4.3 percent) in the country.
2. LaMelo Ball, Illawarra Hawks
We asked Lonzo Wire co-editor Jacob Rude his thoughts on LaMelo Ball’s draft stock, especially after his recent injury. He told us: “Coming into the NBL season, there were countless questions surrounding LaMelo Ball. What is his position? Is he only a shooter? Can he impact the game in any way other than scoring? Can he defend? He’s answered every question and then some in a breakout season with Illawarra. He’s a lead guard in the NBA that can score at multiple levels — even if there are some adjustments that need to be made to his jumper — and can be a top-tier playmaker. His defense has steadily improved and he shares many of the same instincts that make his older brother Lonzo a disruptive defender. Also like Lonzo, his high-IQ separates him from the rest of the pack. No matter where he lands, he’ll put people in the seats and will provide a franchise with a cornerstone guard.”
3. Nico Mannion, Arizona
18-year-old Arizona point guard Nico Mannion has already looked the part of a future starter in the NBA, averaging 15.3 points per game. The 6-foot-3 freshman is shooting 40.5 percent from downtown, where he has thrived on catch-and-shoot opportunities. He has the second-most assists per game (5.7) in the Pac-12 Conference and also ranks Top 5 in assist percentage (33.7 percent) among all freshmen. Mannion also has the third-most points over replacement per adjusted game among all freshmen, per BartTorvik.com.
4. James Wiseman, Memphis
Memphis big man James Wiseman, who was the No. 1 overall recruit in the nation, was one of the most exciting prospects in the nation coming into the 2019-20 regular season. He put up 21 points with 6 rebounds and 2 blocks in the Jordan Brand Classic back in March. Then before he was hit with one of the more surprising suspensions in the history of recent college sports, the 7-foot-1 freshman averaged 19.7 points and 10.7 rebounds with 3.0 blocks per game. For any team looking for a post presence, it will be hard to find one who fits the bill more than Wiseman.
5. Cole Anthony, UNC
There was a ton of hype around this University of North Carolina freshman heading into the season. Cole Anthony, the son of former NBA player Greg Anthony, was the No. 2 overall recruit on ESPN’s Top 100 ranking index. The guard led his team in scoring at both the Jordan Brand Classic and the Nike Hoop Summit, scoring 25 points in both of the games. He also earned All-Tournament honors at the 2018 U18 Americas Championship. Since playing for the Tar Heels, he is averaging 19.1 points per game. But so far, the biggest issue for Anthony is that he has actually missed more than half of his attempts (44.1 percent) at the rim.
6. Onyeka Okongwu, USC
When he was teammates with Lonzo Ball and LaMelo Ball at Chino Hills High School, their team won the national title. But after the Ball brothers left, Onyeka Okongwu won two more state titles and dominated with 4.3 blocks per game during his final year in high school. Now, his block percentage (13.2 percent) ranks second-best among all freshmen this season. He also ranks third-best in total dunks (22)in the NCAA. For more on Okongwu, check out this feature from our own Ben Pfeifer, who writes: “Okongwu has made his case as the 2020 draft’s top center. More than any other big, he combines the physical tools to hold up at the five along with a projectable offensive skillset necessary to survive in the modern NBA.”
7. Deni Avdija, Maccabi Tel Aviv
Deni Avdija made headlines when he averaged 18.4 points and 8.3 rebounds per game at the U20 Euro Championship A earlier this. He won MVP of the tournament and led Israel to the gold medal as well. The 6-foot-7 wing has a smaller role for Maccabi Tel Aviv but has been efficient in the opportunities he has been given, shooting 51.2 percent from the field. The 18-year-old has been a fixture at Basketball Without Borders camps and while it is hard to tell how he will be able to fit in the NBA, there is enough potential to get excited enough for a lottery selection.
8. Obi Toppin, Dayton
Dayton big man Obi Toppin has been one of the most efficient, high-volume finishers in the NCAA. No team is dunking the ball more often than Dayton and Toppin had thirteen dunks in the first two games of the season alone and has the second-most in college basketball. As such, Toppin is shooting 84.6 percent at the rim. But he has also looked sharp from long-range, per Hoop-Math, shooting an efficient 41.7 percent. Overall, his effective field goal percentage ranks No. 15 in the nation. According to BartTorvik.com, he currently has the second-best Player of the Year rating in the NCAA.
9. Vernon Carey, Duke
Duke freshman Vernon Carey Jr. was the No. 6 overall recruit in the country coming into the season. During his first college season, the big man already has the third-best player efficiency rating (37.2) in the NCAA and has been a double-double machine. When you watch him play, it is clear he is the best player on the floor. Defenders have been clueless with how to defend him and no one has been fouled more often (8.9 fouls drawn per 40 minutes) than Carey this season. On the other side of the ball, his defensive rebound percentage (30.3 percent) ranks No. 1 among freshmen. He can also lock his opponents down, too, recording seven blocks in the only Blue Devils loss of the season thus far.
10. Isaac Okoro, Auburn
Auburn freshman forward Isaac Okoro is known as a defensive specialist, averaging 1.2 blocks for his AAU team at Nike EYBL and 1.6 steals per game for Team USA at the U17 World Cup. But in college, he has averaged 13.9 points per game. One of the more exciting elements of his game is that just 37.5 percent of his connections at the rim have been assisted which means he can create his own offense. He is shooting 73.2 percent on two-pointers, currently Top 20 among all NCAA players. Okoro finishes well in a transition offense, averaging 1.30 points per possession (85th percentile) this season, per Synergy Sports.
11. Tyrese Haliburton, Iowa State
During the U19 World Cup, 6-foot-5 point guard Tyrese Haliburton made the All-Tournament Team. Arguably the most important thing to know about the Iowa State guard is that he manages an unreal assist-to-usage rate. He ranks Top 5 in assists per game (8.2) among all NCAA players despite a relatively low usage rate. The Cyclones have scored 13.2 points per game on his pick-and-roll possessions when including his passes, per Synergy, which has been the best mark in his conference. Defensively, he rarely fouls opponents, as he is committing just 1.0 per 40 minutes.
12. Killian Hayes, Ratiopharm Ulm
Killian Hayes led France to win the gold medal at the 2017 U16 Euro Championship A, winning MVP of the tournament. He had 16.6 points, 7.0 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game during the competition. The following year at the U17 World Cup, he averaged 16.1 points per game. The 18-year-old, 6-foot-5 guard is currently averaging 12.5 points and 6.9 assists per game in Eurocup competition for his team in Germany.
13. RJ Hampton, New Zealand Breakers
While 18-year-old RJ Hampton was one of the most heralded recruits in the nation as the Texas Gatorade Player of the Year, the 6-foot-5 guard took the path-less-traveled and went overseas rather than play college basketball. In his games overseas thus far, he has been relatively underwhelming with just 10.4 points per game — a far cry from the 24.6 points that he averaged for his AAU team while on the Under Armour circuit. Hampton will have to spend his next month recovering, reportedly missing the next four weeks of the season with a hip injury.
14. Josh Green, Arizona
Arizona Wildcats freshman Josh Green went to IMG Academy for high school, the same program that produced 2018 first-rounder Anfernee Simons. The 6-foot-6 wing is averaging 1.8 steals per game for Arizona, which have turned into several fantastic highlights plays in the open court. He has scored 60 points in transition thus far, per Synergy, which ranks Top 10 among D1 players.
15. Theo Maledon, ASVEL
Theo Maledon is just 18 years old but has been a fixture on the professional basketball scene since 2015-16. He helped lead France to the gold medal at the U16 Euro Championship A, scoring 14.6 points per game. During the Jordan Brand Classic game, Maledon put up 15 points with 4 rebounds as well as 4 assists. He has missed some time this year due to injury but with all of the promise he has already shown, there may be enough to consider him in the first half of the first round.
16. Paul Reed, DePaul
While 20-year-old junior Paul Reed had been flying under-the-radar, he is destined to continue improving his draft stock as his stellar play continues for DePaul. Originally recruited as a 6-foot-5 wing, he now stands at 6-foot-10 who is leading his conference in rebounds for the second season in a row. That has helped him be remarkably efficient in transition, occasionally even as the ballhandler. DePaul has just one loss so far this season, in which he recorded 18 rebounds with five blocks and four steals. He currently ranks Top 20 in block percentage (12.4 percent), including an absurd eight blocks against Minnesota.
17. Precious Achiuwa, Memphis
Precious Achiuwa, a 6-foot-9 forward, has been tasked with leading what was supposed to be a star-studded Memphis Tigers team that has been hit with the suspension of Wiseman. But under Penny Hardaway, the team is still 8-1 to start the season and is playing at one of the fastest-tempos in college. His defensive rebound percentage (23.2 percent) and block percentage (6.0) both rank in the Top 15 among all freshmen. Achiuwa has also drawn 7.2 fouls per 100 possessions, which ranks Top 25 in the NCAA. Unfortunately, he is shooting just 1-for-6 (16.7 percent) from three-point range.
18. Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt sophomore Aaron Nesmith is averaging 22.8 points per game in his first year playing for head coach Jerry Stackhouse. He is a three-point specialist, shooting 51.5 percent from downtown. His teammates have been fantastic at setting picks, where he has been tasked with shooting off the screen. The guard is currently averaging 1.58 points per possession on this play-type, per Synergy, the second-best (minimum: 15 possessions) among all D1 players. He is also scoring 6.1 points per game on these opportunities, ranking second-best as well.
19. Tyrese Maxey, Kentucky
Tyrese Maxey, a 6-foot-3 guard, was a Top-10 recruit coming out of high school. He trailed only Cole Anthony and RJ Hampton as the top-rated combo guard prospects in the nation. He played for two AAU teams in Texas, averaging 24.4 points per game in the Nike 17U circuit. Maxey was 18-for-34 (52.9 percent) from three-point range playing for Houston Hoops. That prowess has not yet translated into his NCAA career, however, where he is only shooting 30.6 percent from beyond the arc.
20. Zeke Nnaji, Arizona
Arizona freshman Zeke Nnaji is a 6-foot-11 freshman who is averaging 16.6 points per game. He is currently shooting 80.5 percent at the rim, connecting on 9-for-10 (90.0 percent) of his attempts when cutting to the basket. The big man has also drawn 6.1 fouls per 40 minutes, fifth-best in the Pac-12. When getting to the line, he is shooting an impressive rate (81.5 percent) on his free throw attempts for someone his size. While less heralded than his freshman teammates Mannion and Green, there is a lot to like about this Arizona team.
21. Isaiah Stewart, Washington
Washington Huskies big man Isaiah Stewart recorded 17.6 points and 11.2 rebounds per game on the AAU circuit. He was also fantastic at the Jordan Brand Classic, scoring 16 points and 9 rebounds while shooting 2-for-2 from three-point range. He will need a resurgence in his jumper, shooting 0-for-5 from downtown at the University of Washington. While the Huskies have had a slow start to the year, he has already recorded 17 blocks this season, third-best in the Pac-12.
22. Jaden McDaniels, Washington
Jaden McDaniels, whose older brother Jalen McDaniels was drafted by the Charlotte Hornets in the second round of the 2019 NBA Draft, was the No. 1 overall recruit at power forward coming into the season. His 6-foot-9 frame makes him an especially appealing prospect. As a freshman, he is averaging 15.0 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. But one red flag is that the forward currently leads the Pac-12 in turnovers (37).
23. Saddiq Bey, Villanova
In the last three drafts, the Villanova Wildcats have put six players in the NBA — highlighted by four first-round picks. Many expect that trend to continue as they have two Top-20 recruits (Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Bryan Antoine) on the roster. But the star of the show has been sophomore Saddiq Bey. Villanova has scored 114.6 points per 100 possession so far this season, the second-best offensive rating in the NCAA. But that rate has been even better (130.5) in the minutes that Bey has been on the court. He has hit 43.8 percent of his three-pointers and shoots incredibly well off the catch. He can also post-up smaller defenders and has surprisingly good playmaking in the pick-and-roll for someone who stands at 6-foot-8.
24. Cassius Stanley, Duke
There are some serious shades of Zach LaVine in Cassius Stanley given his unique leaping and vertical ability. He is a high-flying wing who will get front office executives and fans alike excited with the dunks he is able to throw down. If he proves that his three-point shooting is no fluke and that Stanley is a legitimate option from long distance, there is little doubt he will have a role in the NBA as a 6-foot-6 wing.
25. Jahmi’us Ramsey, Texas Tech
Texas Tech freshman Jahmi’us Ramsey is averaging 17.3 points per game, which has been an awesome start to his collegiate career. He is also shooting 46.4 percent from three-point range. The best news for Ramsey is that in a set offense, he is shooting 7-for-12 (58.3) on guarded attempts when shooting off the catch. Despite his 6-foot-4 frame, Ramsey has pulled down 5.8 rebounds per game. This has also helped him connect on five of his first seven attempts as the ballhandler in a transition offense.
26. Jordan Nwora, Louisville
Louisville Cardinals junior Jordan Nwora has the best Player of the Year rating in the nation, per KenPom.com. He is shooting 42.1 percent from three-point range for Louisville so far this season. The junior is averaging 1.49 points per possession on spot-up possessions, via Synergy, which ranks in the 97th percentile among all players.
27. Devin Vassell, Florida State
Since moving into the starting lineup as a sophomore, Florida State guard Devin Vassell has improved from 4.5 points per game last season to 12.4 points per game this season. The 6-foot-7 wing is shooting 44.8 percent from three-point range, including a perfect 3-for-3 from beyond the arc against the Indiana Hoosiers on December 3. Given his size and shooting ability, there is some real buzz about the FSU wing.
28. Jalen Smith, Maryland
Maryland sophomore Jalen Smith is a prototypical center, averaging 13.5 points and 10.2 rebounds per game. The big man currently ranks Top 10 in defensive win-shares, averaging 9.6 blocks per 100 possessions and twice as many blocks per game as he did last season. He also has the second-best offensive rebound percentage (14.6) in the Big Ten. Under head coach Mark Turgeon, the Terrapins have sent Bruno Fernando (’19) and Alex Len (’13) into the NBA and Smith is clearly the next prospect in line.
29. Kaleb Wesson, Ohio State
Based on the way the Ohio State Buckeyes are playing, they could be on the way to a Final Four appearance in both football and basketball this season. If such a rarity occurred, the hoops fans can give credit to junior big man Kaleb Wesson. The 6-foot-9 center is currently shooting 44.8 percent from three-point range and his jump shot ranks in the 93rd percentile among all players, per Synergy. He projects as a pick-and-pop option at the next level due to his no-dribble jumper in pick-and-roll sets.
30. Myles Powell, Seton Hall
Seton Hall senior Myles Powell is a scoring machine who has averaged 22.9 points per game. The 6-foot-2 guard is also averaging 39.8 three-pointers per game and has been the most efficient, prolific NCAA player when shooting off screens. Overall, the senior ranks Top 10 in Player of the Year ratings on BartTorvik.com and No. 5 overall for POY ratings on KenPom.com.
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