Tag: Twins Red Sox odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Minnesota Twins (11-7) and Boston Red Sox (9-10) meet for a Thursday matinee to cap off a 3-game series at Fenway Park. First pitch is at 1:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Twins were undone 5-4 in Tuesday’s series opener and had lost 3 in a row before routing the Red Sox 10-4 Wednesday. Minnesota clubbed 2 doubles and 3 HRs in piling up its 3rd double-digit game in runs.

The Red Sox are 4-2 on a current homestand that opened with 4 games against the Los Angeles Angels. All 4 of those Boston wins have been by 1- or 2-run margins.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

Twins at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Kenta Maeda vs. RHP Tanner Houck

Maeda (0-2, 4.09 ERA) is lined up for his 3rd start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 0.0 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 11 IP.

  • Figures to see a lot of lefty bats in the Boston lineup; has .604 career OPS vs. right-handed batters while lefties have tagged him for a .744 mark
  • Left season debut early with arm fatigue and missed his most recent turn in the rotation (Saturday); will start on 9 days’ rest

Houck (2-0, 4.50 ERA) is tabbed for his 4th start. He has registered a 1.36 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 14 IP.

  • Has been getting a lot of ground balls (66.7%), but he’s been hurt by an 18.2% HR/fly balls rate
  • Coming off a 4-walk game in April 14 vs. Los Angeles Angels

Twins at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:28 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Twins +105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Red Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins +1.5 (-190) | Red Sox -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW23 for $15 OFF a Draft Prep or full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 4/30/2023. Subscribe today and start winning!

Twins at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Twins 4

Moneyline

Maeda is a bit of a question mark coming off his arm issues. Over he’s career he’s held batters to a .673 OPS, But when starting on 6-plus days, that OPS has ballooned to .751.

Houck has been unlucky in getting so many ground balls, but having HR problems on some random flies. He draws a breeze likely protecting the short left-field distance in this turn.

Minnesota is a bit too far over its skis on both sides of the runs-runs allowed equation and is perhaps a bit fatigued from a week in New York and Boston.

BACK THE RED SOX (-125).

Run line/Against the spread

Boston is the lean with a run of insurance, but only at a better price floating in less juice. STEER CLEAR.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Over/Under

There is some definite fade to the Minnesota pitching in this one. But the backs ends of both bullpens are well-rested, and a breeze protecting the Green Monster cuts into a slight Over lean.

PASS.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Minnesota Twins (10-7) and Boston Red Sox (9-9) clash in game 2 of a 3-game series at Fenway Park Wednesday. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Boston leads 1-0

The Twins were undone 5-4 in Tuesday’s series opener and have now lost 3 straight games after winning 4 in a row from April 11-14. Minnesota owns a high-strikeout .600 OPS over its last 9 games.

The Red Sox allowed 2 runs in the top of Tuesday’s 10th inning, but they rallied with a 3-spot in the bottom of the inning to earn their 4th win in their last 5 tries. All 4 of those Boston wins have been by 1- or 2-run margins.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

Twins at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Joe Ryan vs. RHP Corey Kluber

Ryan (3-0, 2.84 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 0.63 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 12.3 K/9 through 19 IP.

  • Has clocked a 3.55 ERA across 35 career starts
  • Went 7 innings in his last start on Thursday vs. New York Yankees with 1 ER on 3 H with 0 BB and 10 K

Kluber (0-3, 6.92 ERA) is making his 4th start of the season. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 13 IP.

  • Logged a 4.34 ERA last season but owns a 3.34 ERA over his 13-year career
  • Has held current Minnesota batters to a whiff-heavy .486 OPS

Twins at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:48 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Twins -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Red Sox +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+125) | Red Sox +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW23 for $15 OFF a Draft Prep or full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 4/30/2023. Subscribe today and start winning!

Twins at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Twins 4

Moneyline

Ryan has gotten by with a .158 batting average on balls in play, and the Twins bullpen owns a .232 BABIP. Minnesota’s recent games have seen quiet bats over 3 straight losses.

Kluber was solid in spring training and we can expect a decent start here with his history against the Twins. Boston is the lean but the return is not optimal so go with a partial-unit play on the RED SOX (+110).

Run line/Against the spread

Boston is the lean with a run of insurance, but only to a price point of -145. STEER CLEAR.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Over/Under

There is some definite fade to the Minnesota pitching and Boston bullpen factors. However, with a breeze protecting the green monster on a chilly day — and some double-sided fade lean in the batting department — PASS.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Minnesota Twins (55-71) face the Boston Red Sox (72-56) in the rubber match of their three-game series Thursday. First pitch is 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Twins vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Twins RHP John Gant (4-7, 3.77 ERA) makes his 16th start of the year but only his second for the Twins. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 6.0 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 88 1/3 IP.

  • Gant started his first 14 appearances of the year with the St. Louis Cardinals before moving to the bullpen. He was traded to the Twins and appeared in relief for seven games before moving to the starting rotation.
  • Allowed 4 runs on 3 hits and a walk over 3 1/3 innings taking a loss in a 7-5 defeat at the New York Yankees in his first start with Minnesota.

Red Sox LHP Chris Sale (2-0, 1.80 ERA) makes his third start. He has allowed 11 H and 1 BB with 13 K through 10 IP.

  • Suffered an elbow injury in Aug. 2019 and subsequently missed the 2020 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
  • Tossed 5 scoreless frames in his last start Aug. 20 against the Texas Rangers.

Twins at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:19 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Twins +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Red Sox -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Twins +2.5 (-122) | Red Sox -2.5 (-102)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Prediction

Red Sox 8, Twins 4

Money line (ML)

The Twins lost four straight before picking up the first win of their six-game road trip Wednesday. They won four of their previous five games before setting out. Minnesota is 2-4 against Boston, 25-38 on the road, and 30-45 against teams with a record over .500.

Boston is 40-26 at home and 7-3 in its last 10 games at Fenway. Sale won his first two starts, although he didn’t pitch more than 5 innings in either.

I like the Red Sox to win but at -300 we have to PASS on the money line bet. Look at the spread and the total for action on this game.

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Twins have the worst ATS record at 49-77 ATS and they also own the worst road ATS record at 26-37 ATS. Minnesota has covered the spread in just two of its last eight games.

The Red Sox are 66-62 ATS and 32-34 ATS at home. They are 6-5 ATS in their last 11 games but eight of their last 10 wins have been by 3 or more runs.

Take the RED SOX -2.5 (-102).

Over/Under (O/U)

Five of the Twins’ last six games have finished with 10 or more runs.

The Red Sox’s last four games have had at least 10 runs.

Both games of this series so far have had at least 10 runs.

Take OVER 9.5 (-125).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Jess Root on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Minnesota Twins (54-71) continue their three-game set with the Boston Red Sox (72-55) Wednesday. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Twins vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Boston held off a 5-run late-inning rally by Minnesota to win the first game of the series 11-9. The Red Sox have somewhat righted the ship by winning three of their last four since falling behind the New York Yankees in the AL Wild Card standings.

Season series: Red Sox lead 4-1.

RHP Bailey Ober is Minnesota’s projected starter. Ober is 1-2 with a 4.38 ERA (63 2/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 14 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3-1, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 3 K Aug. 17 against the Cleveland Indians.
  • August splits: 0-1 with a 2.76 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 18 H, 2 BB and 14 K in three starts.

RHP Nick Pivetta makes his 25th start for the Red Sox. Pivetta is 9-6 with a 4.43 ERA (126 IP, 62 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5-2, with 1 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 1 K at the New York Yankees Aug. 18.
  • Home splits: 4-2 with a 5.37 ERA (60 1/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.44 WHIP and 2.4 K/BB in 12 starts.

Twins at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:37 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Twins +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Red Sox -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Twins +1.5 (-130) | Red Sox -1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Prediction

Twins 7, Red Sox 6

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Twins (+140) because there’s been heavy “reverse line movement” (RLM) in Minnesota’s direction. However, Boston has an edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting and bullpen pitching and hitting).

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the TWINS +1.5 (-130) for a half unit since the Red Sox are just 24-28 ATS as a home favorite and we are seeing the same RLM with Minnesota’s run line.

The Twins opened around -113 on the run line but that number has been moved down by oddsmakers despite 90% of the action coming on the Red Sox according to Pregame.com. It’s always a red flag when the sportsbook makes the more popular side cheaper.

Furthermore, the starting and bullpen pitching between the two ball clubs stack up pretty equally after the All-Star Game and both lineups are in the top-10 of wRC+ over the past two weeks.

Boston does have a slight edge in each of these departments but that’s baked into a line that is heading in the opposite direction as the betting public.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 10.5 (-110) for a half unit because Minnesota has the highest rate of Overs on the road and the third-highest rate of Overs as a road underdog.

Also, the Red Sox are 9-7 O/U at home when facing a righty as a -160 money line favorite or greater and the Twins are 6-3-1 O/U on the road against righties as a +140 money line underdog or greater.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Minnesota Twins (54-70) and Boston Red Sox (71-55) open a three-game series Tuesday. First pitch at Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET.  Let’s analyze the lines around the Twins vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Twins RHP Griffin Jax (3-1, 5.11 ERA) makes his seventh start and 11th appearance. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 44 IP.

  • Has a 2.73 ERA with 7 BB and 21 K over 26 1/3 IP across five starts since the All-Star break. However, he has been aided by a 1.83 BABIP over that span.
  • Has higher than average Exit Velocity, HardHit% and FB% which has led to a 2.25 HR/9.

Red Sox RHP Tanner Houck (0-3, 3.12 ERA) makes his eighth start in his 10th game. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9 through 34 2/3 IP.

  • 0-1 with a 2.95 ERA, 5 BB and 31 K over 21 1/3 IP over his last five starts. Boston is 3-2 in those games.
  • Has pitched into the sixth inning just once and has completed5 innings on only two occasions.

Twins at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Twins +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Red Sox -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Twins +1.5 (-108) | Red Sox -1.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Prediction

Boston 7, Minnesota 4

Money line (ML)

Despite their overall struggles in August the Red Sox are 6-3 at Fenway Park and against clubs with losing records. The Twins started the month strong but are 1-4 in their last five games while allowing 6.8 runs per game.

Jax’s recent success is belied by digging deeper. Despite his impressive second-half surface numbers through five starts, he has had an xFIP over 5.00 in three of them and a BABIP under .135 in three as well. Those numbers suggest a regression to the mean is in the cards.

The number here for the Red Sox is just too high to be a standalone bet. You can look to add it to a parlay or PASS on the money line.

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Boston’s bats have been a major letdown in many of its recent losses but that shouldn’t be the case Tuesday against Jax.

There seems to be enough of a starting pitching advantage for Boston to suggest it will be able to keep Minnesota in check long enough to do suitable damage to cover.

I prefer to see ATS bets with plus money but the play on this game is a “LEAN” to the RED SOX -1.5 (-112).

Over/Under (O/U)

We’re banking on Boston to hit Jax hard, and while I anticipate Houck keeping the Twins in check I don’t suspect he’ll go deep into the game.

We could see a heavy dose of both bullpens which should allow for some extra runs late in the game.

This number is up a full run from its opening line and I hate to follow a crowd betting heavily into the Over, but I’m looking toward a partial-unit play on OVER 10.5 (-107).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @unansweredpoint on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]