Tag: Twins Red Sox odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Minnesota Twins (81-73) and Boston Red Sox (76-78) meet Sunday for Game 1 of a doubleheader that will end a 3-game series. First pitch from Fenway Park is set for 12:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Twins vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Minnesota leads 3-1

Saturday’s game was postponed due to rain. The Twins won Friday’s series opener 4-2 in 12 innings, covering as -115 road favorites.

Each of Minnesota’s last 3 games have gone to extra innings, the Twins are 1-2 during that stretch. The Red Sox have lost back-to-back games.

Twins at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Zebby Matthews vs. RHP Nick Pivetta

Matthews (1-3, 6.30 ERA) makes his 8th career start. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 30 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K in a 4-1 win at Cleveland Tuesday
  • First career start vs. Boston

Pivetta (5-11, 4.37 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 134 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 6 K in an 8-3 outing at Tampa Bay  RaysTuesday
  • Career vs. Minnesota: 1-1, 9.00 ERA (11 IP, 11 ER), 20 H, 5 BB, 11 K in 3 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Twins at Red Sox odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 12:51 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Twins -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Red Sox +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+135) | Red Sox +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Twins at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 3, Red Sox 2

Moneyline

BET TWINS (-130).

Minnesota is 5-5 in its last 10 games while Boston is only 3-7 in that same span. The Twins are also 2-1 in their last 3 meetings with the Red Sox in Boston while also being 5-1 in the last 6 overall matchups between these squads.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

It’s a pretty even matchup and should be a close game so I expect the Red Sox cover as +1.5 (-160) underdogs. However, this line is set far too heavily to risk betting on, so bet on the moneyline and/or total instead.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-110).

The Under has hit in 3 straight home games for Boston and is 8-1-1 in its last 10 overall. For Minnesota, the Under is 3-1 in its last 4 road games. The Under has also hit in 4 of the last 5 Minnesota-Boston matchups.

Be aware that the Over is 6-3-1 in Minnesota’s last 10 games and is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings between these squads.

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Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Boston Red Sox (76-78) welcome the Minnesota Twins (81-73) to Fenway Park Saturday for the 2nd of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Twins vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Twins lead 3-1

The Twins beat the Red Sox to open the series 4-2 Friday.

They snapped a 2-game losing streak with the victory. Minnesota, which has fallen to 3rd in the AL Central, dropped 3 of 4 to the Cleveland Guardians in the series prior and 2 of 3 to the Cincinnati Reds before that. It is 39-40 on the road and 71-83 against the spread (ATS).

The Red Sox lost Friday and are now on a 2-game losing streak. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games, and their bats have really struggled. Boston has scored a total of 9 runs in its last 5 games. It is 35-41 at home this season and 71-83 ATS.

Twins at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Pablo Lopez vs. RHP Kutter Crawford

Lopez (15-8, 3.84 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 175 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 4-3 road loss to the Cleveland Guardians Monday
  • 2024 away stats: 8-4, 4.02 ERA (94 IP, 42 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 in 16 starts
  • Career vs. Red Sox: 1-1, 3.86 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 13.1 K/9 in 2 starts

Crawford (8-15, 4.19 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 171 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 5-2 road loss to the New York Yankees Sunday
  • 2024 home stats: 4-8, 4.08 ERA (88 1/3 IP, 40 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 in 16 starts
  • Career vs. Twins: 1-1, 6.55 ERA (11 IP, 8 ER), 1.91 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 in 3 appearances (2 starts)

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Twins at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 11:45 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Twins -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Red Sox +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+120) | Red Sox +1.5 (-145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Twins at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 5, Red Sox 2

Moneyline

BET TWINS (-145).

The Twins have performed well with Lopez on the mound recently. They are 4-1 in his last 5 starts. Minnesota is almost at .500 on the road while Boston has been worst at home than in away games.

The Red Sox struggled offensively in the last week, and against a strong starter like Lopez, that should be expected to continue. Boston has been outscored 9-20 in its last 5 games.

Expect those trends to continue and take TWINS (-145).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There’s no great value here. The Twins as a run-line favorite are too risky to play, and the Red Sox as a run-line underdog are far too expensive. Avoid this play.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8 (-120).

The Red Sox have gone Under in 3 straight games and in 5 of their last 6. Boston has allowed just 7 runs over its last 3 games while scoring 4 in that span.

The Twins have a similar recent run and are 1-3 O/U in their last 4 games. They are 1-2-2 O/U in Lopez’s last 5 starts. Minnesota has scored just 10 runs and allowed 10 through its last 3.

Take UNDER 8 (-120).

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Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Boston Red Sox (76-77) welcome the Minnesota Twins (80-73) to Fenway Park Friday for the 1st game of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Twins vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Twins lead 2-1

The Red Sox lost to the Tampa bay Rays 2-0 Thursday, dropping their 2nd in the 3-game series. Boston, which is 3rd in the AL East, has lost 5 of its last 7 games, all on the road where it has been better this season. The Red Sox are 35-40 at home and have won 4 of their last 6 at Fenway Park. They are 71-82 against the spread (ATS).

The Twins, who are 38-40 on the road this season, have dropped 3 of their last 4 games with all 3 of those losses coming by just 1 run. They lost 3-2 to the Cleveland Guardians Thursday. Minnesota has struggled to generate offense as of late and has scored 4 or fewer runs in 4 straight games. It is 38-40 on the road and 70-83 ATS.

Twins at Red Sox projected starters

RHP David Festa vs. RHP Richard Fitts

Festa (2-6, 5.07 ERA) makes his 12th start and 13th career appearance. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 55 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 9-2 home win over the Cincinnati Reds Sunday
  • 2024 away stats: 2-2, 3.96 ERA (25 IP, 11 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 in 5 starts
  • First tme facing Red Sox

Fitts (0-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his 3rd career start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 3.4 K/9 in 10 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 5-4 road loss to the New York Yankees Friday
  • 2024 home stats: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (5 2/3 IP, 0 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 3.2 K/9 in 1 start
  • 2024 AAA (Worcester) stats: 9-5, 4.55 ERA (116 2/3 IP, 54 ER), 1.28 WHIP in 24 appearance (23 starts)

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Twins at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 8:35 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Twins -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Red Sox -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+145) | Red Sox +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Twins at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Twins 3

Moneyline

BET RED SOX (-105).

The Twins have struggled over the last few weeks, but they have been even worse on the road against quality opponents. Minnesota has lost 6 of its last 7 road games and 8 of its last 10 on the road.

The Red Sox have won 2 of its last 3 games at home. While Fitts has limited experience, he has yet to give up an earned run and has been terrific in his 1st 2 starts. The Twins are 1-4 in Festa’s last 5 starts.

Take RED SOX (-105).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There’s no great value here. The Twins are too risky as a run-line favorite, especially considering how they’ve played as of late, and the Red Sox are too expensive as a run-line underdog.

Avoid this play.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 9 (-115).

The Red Sox have gone Under in 4 of their last 5 games and have struggled to get on the board consistently, scoring just 7 runs over their last 4 games. Boston is  1-7-1 O/U in its last 9 outings.

The Twins are 1-2-1 O/U in their last 4 games and have scored 13 runs while allowing 13 runs in those. Minnesota is 1-6-2 O/U in Festa’s last 9 starts as well. Take UNDER 9 (-115).

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Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Minnesota Twins (11-7) and Boston Red Sox (9-10) meet for a Thursday matinee to cap off a 3-game series at Fenway Park. First pitch is at 1:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Twins were undone 5-4 in Tuesday’s series opener and had lost 3 in a row before routing the Red Sox 10-4 Wednesday. Minnesota clubbed 2 doubles and 3 HRs in piling up its 3rd double-digit game in runs.

The Red Sox are 4-2 on a current homestand that opened with 4 games against the Los Angeles Angels. All 4 of those Boston wins have been by 1- or 2-run margins.

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Twins at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Kenta Maeda vs. RHP Tanner Houck

Maeda (0-2, 4.09 ERA) is lined up for his 3rd start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 0.0 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 11 IP.

  • Figures to see a lot of lefty bats in the Boston lineup; has .604 career OPS vs. right-handed batters while lefties have tagged him for a .744 mark
  • Left season debut early with arm fatigue and missed his most recent turn in the rotation (Saturday); will start on 9 days’ rest

Houck (2-0, 4.50 ERA) is tabbed for his 4th start. He has registered a 1.36 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 14 IP.

  • Has been getting a lot of ground balls (66.7%), but he’s been hurt by an 18.2% HR/fly balls rate
  • Coming off a 4-walk game in April 14 vs. Los Angeles Angels

Twins at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:28 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Twins +105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Red Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins +1.5 (-190) | Red Sox -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Twins at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Twins 4

Moneyline

Maeda is a bit of a question mark coming off his arm issues. Over he’s career he’s held batters to a .673 OPS, But when starting on 6-plus days, that OPS has ballooned to .751.

Houck has been unlucky in getting so many ground balls, but having HR problems on some random flies. He draws a breeze likely protecting the short left-field distance in this turn.

Minnesota is a bit too far over its skis on both sides of the runs-runs allowed equation and is perhaps a bit fatigued from a week in New York and Boston.

BACK THE RED SOX (-125).

Run line/Against the spread

Boston is the lean with a run of insurance, but only at a better price floating in less juice. STEER CLEAR.

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Over/Under

There is some definite fade to the Minnesota pitching in this one. But the backs ends of both bullpens are well-rested, and a breeze protecting the Green Monster cuts into a slight Over lean.

PASS.

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Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Minnesota Twins (10-7) and Boston Red Sox (9-9) clash in game 2 of a 3-game series at Fenway Park Wednesday. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Boston leads 1-0

The Twins were undone 5-4 in Tuesday’s series opener and have now lost 3 straight games after winning 4 in a row from April 11-14. Minnesota owns a high-strikeout .600 OPS over its last 9 games.

The Red Sox allowed 2 runs in the top of Tuesday’s 10th inning, but they rallied with a 3-spot in the bottom of the inning to earn their 4th win in their last 5 tries. All 4 of those Boston wins have been by 1- or 2-run margins.

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Twins at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Joe Ryan vs. RHP Corey Kluber

Ryan (3-0, 2.84 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 0.63 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 12.3 K/9 through 19 IP.

  • Has clocked a 3.55 ERA across 35 career starts
  • Went 7 innings in his last start on Thursday vs. New York Yankees with 1 ER on 3 H with 0 BB and 10 K

Kluber (0-3, 6.92 ERA) is making his 4th start of the season. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 13 IP.

  • Logged a 4.34 ERA last season but owns a 3.34 ERA over his 13-year career
  • Has held current Minnesota batters to a whiff-heavy .486 OPS

Twins at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:48 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Twins -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Red Sox +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+125) | Red Sox +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Twins at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Twins 4

Moneyline

Ryan has gotten by with a .158 batting average on balls in play, and the Twins bullpen owns a .232 BABIP. Minnesota’s recent games have seen quiet bats over 3 straight losses.

Kluber was solid in spring training and we can expect a decent start here with his history against the Twins. Boston is the lean but the return is not optimal so go with a partial-unit play on the RED SOX (+110).

Run line/Against the spread

Boston is the lean with a run of insurance, but only to a price point of -145. STEER CLEAR.

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Over/Under

There is some definite fade to the Minnesota pitching and Boston bullpen factors. However, with a breeze protecting the green monster on a chilly day — and some double-sided fade lean in the batting department — PASS.

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Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Minnesota Twins (55-71) face the Boston Red Sox (72-56) in the rubber match of their three-game series Thursday. First pitch is 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Twins vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Twins RHP John Gant (4-7, 3.77 ERA) makes his 16th start of the year but only his second for the Twins. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 6.0 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 88 1/3 IP.

  • Gant started his first 14 appearances of the year with the St. Louis Cardinals before moving to the bullpen. He was traded to the Twins and appeared in relief for seven games before moving to the starting rotation.
  • Allowed 4 runs on 3 hits and a walk over 3 1/3 innings taking a loss in a 7-5 defeat at the New York Yankees in his first start with Minnesota.

Red Sox LHP Chris Sale (2-0, 1.80 ERA) makes his third start. He has allowed 11 H and 1 BB with 13 K through 10 IP.

  • Suffered an elbow injury in Aug. 2019 and subsequently missed the 2020 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
  • Tossed 5 scoreless frames in his last start Aug. 20 against the Texas Rangers.

Twins at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:19 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Twins +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Red Sox -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Twins +2.5 (-122) | Red Sox -2.5 (-102)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Red Sox 8, Twins 4

Money line (ML)

The Twins lost four straight before picking up the first win of their six-game road trip Wednesday. They won four of their previous five games before setting out. Minnesota is 2-4 against Boston, 25-38 on the road, and 30-45 against teams with a record over .500.

Boston is 40-26 at home and 7-3 in its last 10 games at Fenway. Sale won his first two starts, although he didn’t pitch more than 5 innings in either.

I like the Red Sox to win but at -300 we have to PASS on the money line bet. Look at the spread and the total for action on this game.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Twins have the worst ATS record at 49-77 ATS and they also own the worst road ATS record at 26-37 ATS. Minnesota has covered the spread in just two of its last eight games.

The Red Sox are 66-62 ATS and 32-34 ATS at home. They are 6-5 ATS in their last 11 games but eight of their last 10 wins have been by 3 or more runs.

Take the RED SOX -2.5 (-102).

Over/Under (O/U)

Five of the Twins’ last six games have finished with 10 or more runs.

The Red Sox’s last four games have had at least 10 runs.

Both games of this series so far have had at least 10 runs.

Take OVER 9.5 (-125).

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Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Minnesota Twins (54-71) continue their three-game set with the Boston Red Sox (72-55) Wednesday. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Twins vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Boston held off a 5-run late-inning rally by Minnesota to win the first game of the series 11-9. The Red Sox have somewhat righted the ship by winning three of their last four since falling behind the New York Yankees in the AL Wild Card standings.

Season series: Red Sox lead 4-1.

RHP Bailey Ober is Minnesota’s projected starter. Ober is 1-2 with a 4.38 ERA (63 2/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 14 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3-1, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 3 K Aug. 17 against the Cleveland Indians.
  • August splits: 0-1 with a 2.76 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 18 H, 2 BB and 14 K in three starts.

RHP Nick Pivetta makes his 25th start for the Red Sox. Pivetta is 9-6 with a 4.43 ERA (126 IP, 62 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5-2, with 1 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 1 K at the New York Yankees Aug. 18.
  • Home splits: 4-2 with a 5.37 ERA (60 1/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.44 WHIP and 2.4 K/BB in 12 starts.

Twins at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:37 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Twins +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Red Sox -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Twins +1.5 (-130) | Red Sox -1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Prediction

Twins 7, Red Sox 6

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Twins (+140) because there’s been heavy “reverse line movement” (RLM) in Minnesota’s direction. However, Boston has an edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting and bullpen pitching and hitting).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the TWINS +1.5 (-130) for a half unit since the Red Sox are just 24-28 ATS as a home favorite and we are seeing the same RLM with Minnesota’s run line.

The Twins opened around -113 on the run line but that number has been moved down by oddsmakers despite 90% of the action coming on the Red Sox according to Pregame.com. It’s always a red flag when the sportsbook makes the more popular side cheaper.

Furthermore, the starting and bullpen pitching between the two ball clubs stack up pretty equally after the All-Star Game and both lineups are in the top-10 of wRC+ over the past two weeks.

Boston does have a slight edge in each of these departments but that’s baked into a line that is heading in the opposite direction as the betting public.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 10.5 (-110) for a half unit because Minnesota has the highest rate of Overs on the road and the third-highest rate of Overs as a road underdog.

Also, the Red Sox are 9-7 O/U at home when facing a righty as a -160 money line favorite or greater and the Twins are 6-3-1 O/U on the road against righties as a +140 money line underdog or greater.

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Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Minnesota Twins (54-70) and Boston Red Sox (71-55) open a three-game series Tuesday. First pitch at Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET.  Let’s analyze the lines around the Twins vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Twins RHP Griffin Jax (3-1, 5.11 ERA) makes his seventh start and 11th appearance. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 44 IP.

  • Has a 2.73 ERA with 7 BB and 21 K over 26 1/3 IP across five starts since the All-Star break. However, he has been aided by a 1.83 BABIP over that span.
  • Has higher than average Exit Velocity, HardHit% and FB% which has led to a 2.25 HR/9.

Red Sox RHP Tanner Houck (0-3, 3.12 ERA) makes his eighth start in his 10th game. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9 through 34 2/3 IP.

  • 0-1 with a 2.95 ERA, 5 BB and 31 K over 21 1/3 IP over his last five starts. Boston is 3-2 in those games.
  • Has pitched into the sixth inning just once and has completed5 innings on only two occasions.

Twins at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Twins +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Red Sox -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Twins +1.5 (-108) | Red Sox -1.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Boston 7, Minnesota 4

Money line (ML)

Despite their overall struggles in August the Red Sox are 6-3 at Fenway Park and against clubs with losing records. The Twins started the month strong but are 1-4 in their last five games while allowing 6.8 runs per game.

Jax’s recent success is belied by digging deeper. Despite his impressive second-half surface numbers through five starts, he has had an xFIP over 5.00 in three of them and a BABIP under .135 in three as well. Those numbers suggest a regression to the mean is in the cards.

The number here for the Red Sox is just too high to be a standalone bet. You can look to add it to a parlay or PASS on the money line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Boston’s bats have been a major letdown in many of its recent losses but that shouldn’t be the case Tuesday against Jax.

There seems to be enough of a starting pitching advantage for Boston to suggest it will be able to keep Minnesota in check long enough to do suitable damage to cover.

I prefer to see ATS bets with plus money but the play on this game is a “LEAN” to the RED SOX -1.5 (-112).

Over/Under (O/U)

We’re banking on Boston to hit Jax hard, and while I anticipate Houck keeping the Twins in check I don’t suspect he’ll go deep into the game.

We could see a heavy dose of both bullpens which should allow for some extra runs late in the game.

This number is up a full run from its opening line and I hate to follow a crowd betting heavily into the Over, but I’m looking toward a partial-unit play on OVER 10.5 (-107).

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