Twins Guardians odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cleveland Guardians (28-17) welcome the Minnesota Twins (24-20) to Progressive Field Saturday. First pitch in the 2nd game of the 3-game series is set for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 1-0

The Guardians won the first game of the series 3-2, closing as -125 favorites. They failed to cover as run-line favorites, but they are still 3-2 against the spread (ATS) over their last 5 games. Cleveland is the 3rd-best team in MLB at home with a 13-6 record.

The Twins have struggled as of late, losing 4 straight games and going 1-3 ATS in that stretch. They were swept by the New York Yankees in their last series but were 5-2 over the 2 series prior. Minnesota is 13-9 on the road.

Twins at Guardians projected starters

RHP Bailey Ober vs. LHP Logan Allen

Ober (4-1, 3.77 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 0.88 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 43 innings.

Last start: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 10 K in 5-1 road win over Toronto Blue Jays May 11
2024 road splits: 3-1, 4.67 ERA (27 IP, 14 ER), 22 H, 4 HR, 4 BB, 25 K in 5 starts
Career vs. Guardians: 1-1, 1.29 ERA (28 IP, 4 ER), 0.75 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 in 5 starts

Allen (4-2, 5.56 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.50 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 45 1/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 7-0 road win over Chicago White Sox Sunday
2024 home splits: 1-0, 9.87 ERA (17 1/3 IP, 19 ER), 25 H, 6 HR, 8 BB, 14 K in 4 starts
Career vs. Twins: 1-0, 3.09 ERA (11 /23 IP, 4 ER), 1.54 WHIP, 5.4 K/9 in 2 starts

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Twins at Guardians odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:05 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Twins -118 (bet $118 to win $100) | Guardians +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Twins -1.5 (+146) | Guardians +1.5 (-178)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +102 | U: -124)

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Twins at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 4, Guardians 3

Moneyline

BET TWINS (-118).

The Twins have been a strong side with Ober on the mound, and the opposite can be said of Allen. In Allen’s last 3 starts, the Guardians have given up 19 runs and gone 1-2. Ober has allowed 2 or fewer ER in 6 of his last 7 starts.

Minnesota is 17-10 straight up as a favorite and did have a 12-game win streak earlier in the season. With a strong starting option on the mound and success as a favorite, back TWINS (-118).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There’s just no value on the run line here. The Twins are too risky as favorites, while the Guardians are far too expensive as run-line underdogs.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-124).

The Twins have gone Under in 5 straight games and struggled immensely on offense, scoring 2 or fewer in 4 straight. Allen’s recent issues could aid Minnesota, but it still hasn’t batted well as of late.

The Guardians have gone Under in 5 of their last 6 games. They are 4-8 O/U in their last 12 games. Given those recent trends, bet UNDER 7.5 (-124).

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Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Minnesota Twins (24-19) and Cleveland Guardians (27-17) open a 3-game series at Progressive Field on Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 2-0

The Twins were blanked in the final 2 outings in a 3-game sweep against the New York Yankees at Target Field. And in the first game, Minnesota lost 5-1 on Tuesday night. The Under has cashed in 4 straight games, although the total has gone high in 5 of the past 6 outings against AL Central teams.

The Guardians were blanked 4-0 against the Texas Rangers Wednesday in the series finale, but Cleveland won the 1st 2 games by a combined score of 14-4, with a shutout in Monday’s game. In fact, Cleveland has allowed 4 or fewer runs in 5 consecutive games. The Under is 4-1 in the past 5 contests for the Guardians.

Twins at Guardians projected starters

RHP Simeon Woods Richardson vs. RHP Triston McKenzie

Woods Richardson (1-0, 3.24 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 25 IP.

Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 H (2 HR), 1 BB, 2 K in 10-8 road loss vs. Toronto Blue Jays last Saturday
2024 vs. AL Central: (1-0, 2.45 ERA), 14 2/3 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 16 H, 4 BB, 13 K in 3 starts

McKenzie (2-3, 3.54 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 5.3 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 40 2/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 6 2/3 IP, 2 R (1 ER), 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 3-1 road loss vs. Chicago White Sox May 11
2024 home splits: (2-1, 3.42 ERA), 23 2/3 IP, 10 R (9 ER), 19 H, 18 BB, 22 K in 5 starts

Twins at Guardians odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:01 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Twins +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Guardians -118 (bet $118 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+158) | Guardians +1.5 (-192)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Twins at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 4, Twins 3

Moneyline

The GUARDIANS (-118) are worth playing in the series opener Friday at Progressive Field.

Cleveland has won 3 of the past 4 games, including a pair of shutouts. The Guardians topped the Twins (+100) in a pair of home games April 4-6.

Run line/Against the spread

The Guardians +1.5 (-192) are too expensive to play on the run line, so PASS, if you normally like a little insurance.

On the flip side, the Twins -1.5 (+158) also cannot be trusted. Remember, this is a Minnesota team which lost 3 in a row against the Yankees earlier this week, accounting for just a single run in 3 outings.

Over/Under

UNDER 8 (-115) is the play in this AL Central Division battle between 2 rivals.

The Under has cashed in 4 of the past 5 games for Cleveland, and the winning team has ended up shutting out the opposition 3 times during the span.

For the Twins, the total has gone low in 4 straight games. But be careful, as the Over cashed May 11, the last time out for Woods Richardson in a loss to the Blue Jays.

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Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Minnesota Twins (73-66) and Cleveland Guardians (66-73) meet Wednesday for the finale of their 13-game season series. First pitch from Progressive Field is set for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 6-6

Minnesota won 8-3 as a -110 road favorite to take a 2-0 series lead Tuesday. Minnesota trailed 3-2 heading into the 6th, but scored 6 runs in the 6th and 8th innings to win the game.

The Twins have won back-to-back games and are 6-4 in their last 10 overall. Minnesota is 33-37 on the road. Cleveland is 35-36 at home and has lost 3-straight. The Guardians are 5-5 in their last 10.

Twins at Guardians projected starters

RHP Joe Ryan vs. RHP Gavin Williams

Ryan (10-8, 4.20 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 137 innings.

Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 7 K in a 5-1 road win Friday vs. the Texas Rangers
Career vs. Cleveland: 3-2, 1.83 ERA (44 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 28 H, 0.74 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 in 7 starts

Williams (1-5, 3.46 ERA) makes his 14th start. The rookie has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 65 innings.

Last outing: No-decision, 1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 0 K in a 4-2 road loss Aug. 29 vs. Minnesota Twins
Career vs. Minnesota: 1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 0 K in 1 start

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Twins at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:03 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Twins -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Guardians +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+125) | Guardians +1.5 (-150)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Twins at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 6, Guardians 5

Moneyline

LEAN TWINS (-135).

These teams have been very evenly matched as a 6-6 season series attests, but the Twins do have a slight edge with the Guardians starting a rookie and this likely being a bullpen game for Cleveland. Neither pitcher is hot, but Ryan is the better SP here.

Run line/Against the spread

BET GUARDIANS +1.5 (-155).

I believe the Twins will win as they carry all the momentum, but the Guardians’ home crowd should give them some life and propel them to keep the game close. Of course, it’s understandable if you do not want to pay the juice here.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 8.5 (-115).

The Over has hit in the 1st 2 games of the series. The Over is also 4-0 in Minnesota’s last 4 games overall and 6-4 in Cleveland’s last 10. The Over is 3-1-1 in Ryan’s last 5 starts, but it’s a lean because the Under is 3-0 in Ryan’s last 3 starts vs. Cleveland.

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Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Minnesota Twins (72-66) and the Cleveland Guardians (66-72) play the middle contest of a 3-game series Tuesday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 6-5

The Twins entered Monday’s series opener having won just 4 of the first 10 meetings against the Guardians this season, but Minnesota did plenty of work on Labor Day. The Twins belted out a 20-6 victory, with 6 different players smacking homers.

Twins rookie 3B Royce Lewis socked his 3rd grand slam and 5th home run in an 8-game span. That feat puts him in an exclusive 2-player club with Lou Gehrig, who also accomplished it in 1931.

The Guardians scratched out 3 of their 6 runs in the bottom of the 9th inning when the game was already well in hand for the Twins. Cleveland is averaging a respectable 5.1 runs per game (RPG) across the past 10 outings, well above the season average of 4.1 RPG.

Twins at Guardians projected starters

RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Tanner Bibee

Gray (7-6, 2.92 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 157 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 5 K in 5-2 home loss vs. Guardians Wednesday
2023 road splits: 3-3, 3.07 ERA (73 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 3 HR, .225 opponent batting average (OBA) in 13 starts
2023 vs. Cleveland: 0-1, 2.89 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1 HR, 13 K and .239 OBA in 3 starts

Bibee (10-3, 3.03 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 124 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 8 K in 5-2 road win vs. Twins Wednesday
2023 home splits: 5-2, 2.02 ERA (58 IP, 13 ER), 2 HR, .194 OBA in 10 starts
2023 vs. Minnesota: 0-0, 4.50 ERA (10 IP, 5 ER), 1 HR, 14 K and .256 OBA in 2 starts

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Twins at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:21 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Twins -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Guardians -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+150) | Guardians +1.5 (-185)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Twins at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 3, Guardians 2

Moneyline

The TWINS (-115) broke out the hitting shoes Monday, leaving the yard frequently like it was batting practice. Minnesota should have less success against the rookie Bibee, who has been a revelation for Tito Francona in Cleveland. The right-hander will keep the Guardians in it, but the hot-hitting Twins will still get it done eventually.

Run line/Against the spread

The Guardians +1.5 (-185) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return if you like them to keep it within a single run. While it’s likely Cleveland keeps this one close in a pitcher’s duel, it’s just too much risk and not enough reward.

PASS.

Over/Under

UNDER 8 (-115) is the lean, as Gray has tremendous splits on the road, and Bibee has done most of his very good work at home.

While it’s risky business going low on the total after Minnesota registered 20 runs on Monday, it’s the way to go. Despite the Over on Monday, the Under is still 5-2 in the past 7 meetings between these AL Central rivals.

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Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Minnesota Twins (71-66) and the Cleveland Guardians (66-71) open a 3-game series Monday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 6-4

The Twins fell 6-5 in the series finale of a 3-game set at the Texas Rangers Sunday, failing to complete the 3-game sweep. The Over cashed in the final 2 games of the Texas series and has hit at an 8-3-1 clip in the past 12 contests overall for Minnesota.

The Guardians took 2 of 3 games from the Twins last week in Minneapolis as they continue to hang around in the AL Central. Cleveland is 5 games back of the first-place Twins with 25 regular-season games remaining.

Cleveland added veteran RHP Lucas Giolito from the Los Angeles Angels last week on waivers, and he makes his team debut.

Twins at Guardians projected starters

RHP Pablo Lopez vs. RHP Lucas Giolito

Lopez (9-7, 3.72 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 164 2/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 3 BB and 5 K in 4-2 home loss vs. Guardians Tuesday
2023 road splits: 5-4, 2.87 ERA (84 2/3 IP, 27 ER), 11 HR, .221 opponent batting average (OBA) in 14 starts

Giolito (7-11, 4.45 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 153 2/3 innings for the Chicago White Sox and Angels.

Last start (with Angels): Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 4 H (3 HR), 4 BB, 6 K in a 6-4 road loss vs. the Philadelphia Phillies last Monday
2023 home splits: 4-3, 2.53 ERA (74 2/3 IP, 21 ER), 9 HR, .186 OBA in 12 starts

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Twins at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:02 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Twins -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Guardians +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+125) | Guardians +1.5 (-155)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Twins at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 4, Twins 3

Moneyline

The GUARDIANS (+115) are solid short ‘dogs at home in this crucial series opener.

After pulling the plug on a playoff push in late July and trading RHP Aaron Civale to the Tampa Bay Rays, the Guardians have re-engaged in the playoff race after treading water and staying afloat in August. Giolito is an innings eater who will try to help Cleveland get over the hump.

Run line/Against the spread

The GUARDIANS +1.5 (-155) are a decent play on the run line at a rather moderate and reasonable price if you’d like a little insurance.

Cleveland has got the better of the Twins in 6 of 10 meetings this season, and Giolito has had great home splits in his previous 2 stops.

Over/Under

UNDER 8 (-105) is the lean, but play a half-unit at most.

The Guardians have cashed the Under in 4 of the past 5 games, including the final 2 contests of the Minnesota series in the Twin Cities earlier in the week.

It’s been all about the Over for the Twins lately, but the Under has connected in 5 of the past 6 meetings with the Guardians.

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Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Minnesota Twins (19-15) and Cleveland Guardians (15-18) close out a 3-game set at Progressive Field Sunday. First pitch is at 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Twins have stalled of late, going 5-5 over the last 10 and 9-11 over the last 20 games. Runs have been hard to come by as they have plated just 3.6 per game over the last 5 games.

The Guardians snapped a 3-game losing streak with the 4-3 win Saturday. They improved to 11-2 when they score 4 or more runs. Their 17 one-run games are the most in the majors, to which they are 8-9. Cleveland is just 5-9 at home this year.

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Twins at Guardians projected starters

RHP Joe Ryan vs. RHP Cal Quantrill

Ryan (5-0, 2.37 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a league-leading 0.76 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 38 2/3 IP.

Last start Tuesday vs. Chicago White Sox: 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 7 K
Last 5 GS vs. Guardians: 3-0, 1.42 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 26 K in 31 2/3 IP

Quantrill (1-2, 4.73 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 4.7 K/9 in 32 1/3 IP.

Last start Monday vs. New York Yankees: 7 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 K
Last 5 GS vs. Minnesota: 4-0, 2.20 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 21 K in 32 2/3 IP

Twins at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Twins -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Guardians +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+125) | Guardians +1.5 (-155)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Twins at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 4, Guardians 2

Moneyline

The Twins are 2-10 in the last 12 meetings and 2-7 in the last 9 in Cleveland. But this is a Twins team on the come up. Ryan has quietly been one of the better starters in the AL. Cleveland doesn’t boast much of a home-field advantage with a 5-9 mark on the season.

Take the TWINS -135.

Run line/Against the spread

The Twins’ last 9 victories have been of the multiple-run variety. They have really been stingy, ranking 3rd in runs/9 (3.66), 3rd in OBA (.219), 2nd in OPS allowed (.633) and 2nd in pitcher K’s (9.87). Conversely, Cleveland scores the 3rd-fewest runs/9 at 3.62.

Take the TWINS -1.5 (+125).

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Over/Under

Cleveland is 1-9 O/U over the last 10, and rain is in the forecast Sunday. The Under is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings in Cleveland and 6-2 in the last 8 meetings overall. The Under is 5-0 in the Guardians’ last 5 divisional games, last 5 against a righty and last 5 at home against a righty. The Twins have cashed Unders in 4 of 7. So this 8.5 looks like 18.5.

Take the UNDER 8.5 (-105).

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Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Minnesota Twins (18-14) and Cleveland Guardians (14-17) swing into a 3-game series Friday. First pitch at Progressive Field is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting of 2023; Cleveland took 13 of 19 games from Minnesota last season

Minnesota defeated the Chicago White Sox 7-3 in 12 innings Thursday to salvage 1 win in the 3-game set in the Windy City. The Twins are just 2-6 with a .579 OPS over their last 8 road games.

Cleveland is back at home after a 2-4 road trip at the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. The Guardians batted just .215/.283/.301 (.584 OPS) on the trip and are 5-11 with a .597 OPS since April 16.

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Twins at Guardians projected starters

RHP Bailey Ober vs. RHP Peyton Battenfield

Ober (1-0, 1.59 ERA) is making his 3rd start of the season. He’s posted a 1.06 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 11 1/3 IP.

Has gone 5 2/3 innings with 1 ER in each of his 2 starts this season
Owns a 3.66 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 33 career games (all starts)

Battenfield (0-2, 4.67 ERA) is lined up for his 4th start. He has a 1.56 WHIP, 5.7 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 17 1/3 IP across 3 starts and 1 relief appearance.

Last pitched on Sunday out of the bullpen: 2 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 4 BB and 2 K at the Boston Red Sox
Last start was April 25: 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 4 K vs. Colorado Rockies
Is a 25-year-old rookie who has registered a 2.99 ERA in 65 career minor league games
Has thus far struggled against left-handed batters (.880 OPS allowed) and is facing a Twins club that generates more plate appearances from that side than league average

Twins at Guardians odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:24 a.m. ET.

Moneyline: Twins -126 (bet $126 to win $100) | Guardians +108 (bet $100 to win $108)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+134) | Guardians +1.5 (-162)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Twins at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 6, Guardians 5

Moneyline

Too much gray area in the mound match-up and the incoming records for both sides are weighted a bit too strongly in the win column. PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

The best value in this series opener is on the total. PASS.

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Over/Under

Both clubs have had an easy strength of schedule for pitchers so far, and we can expect some backpedaling in pitching numbers. There is plenty of fade lean in this particular pitching match-up and with a Cleveland bullpen that has thus far skated by with a .268 batting average on balls in play. Its Minnesota counterpart has a day more use and fatigue after Thursday’s 12-inning contest.

Battenfield is coming off 97 pitches in his last. Ober likely gets overrated by a small-sample, 56-inning campaign a year ago that saw generous rates around the margins (.277 BABIP, 4.8% HR/fly balls) prop up a 3.21 ERA.

Battenfield vs. Minnesota’s lefty bats could be problematic from the outset and help the Twins set an early tone for the series. The offenses bring enough power (Twins) and speed (Cleveland) to the park every day to hold their end of the bargain in an OVER 8.5 (-110).

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