Tag: Troy Calhoun

Air Force at Annapolis: How the Falcons can sink Navy

Air Force at Annapolis: How the Falcons can sink Navy The Battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy Starts in Annapolis Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Can Air Force win their 4th straight against the Midshipmen? WEEK 8: Air Force Falcons 6-0 …

Air Force at Annapolis: How the Falcons can sink Navy

The Battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy Starts in Annapolis

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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Can Air Force win their 4th straight against the Midshipmen?

WEEK 8: Air Force Falcons 6-0 (4-0) vs. Navy Midshipmen 3-3 (2-2)

WHEN: Saturday, October 21st — 10:00 A.M. MT/ 9:00 A.M. PT

WHERE: Navy-Marine Corp Stadium (Annapolis, MD)

WEATHER: Rain showers early with some sunshine later in the day. High 63F. Winds WNW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

TV: CBS Sports Network
Rich Waltz (play-by-play), Aaron Taylor (analyst), Amanda Guerra (sidelines)

STREAM: FuboTV

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 33-22

WEBSITES: NavySports.com, the official Wyoming athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Navy | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 17.6

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 17

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS: Air Force has an 80.67% chance to win (26.18-13.2)

The biggest game of the Air Force season is being played in Annapolis this Saturday. Coincidentally, it’s also the biggest game of the year for Navy as well. Yes, by Sunday, the biggest game of the year for one of these two teams will have changed and involve that Military Academy in New York, but that game has little relevance until Air Force plays Navy.

This is where the battle for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy begins!

Navy has looked underwhelming more times than not, with an up and down 3-3 start to the year. By some though, three wins at this point in the season may be a tic above expectation. Despite a revolving door of quarterbacks, and generally inconsistent output from their offense, the Mids are still in bowl contention, as well as vying for the all important CiC Trophy.

Navy will likely be relying on a very experienced Senior Tai Lavatai at quarterback on Saturday. He’s been the on and off again starter for what seems the last three seasons. But this is the same guy that last beat Army for Navy, so he’s no stranger to big games. Expect to see Braxton Woodson, the Freshman direct enrollee to see some playing time as well.

The quarterback situation at Air Force got very interesting late in their thrilling win over Wyoming last week. Jensen Jones entered the game when Zac Larrier went down with a knee injury. The offense stumbled at first with the change under center fumbling twice, but settled after under Jones control, masterfully executing an option pitch to the boundary that John Lee Eldridge II took to the house from 70 yards out. Jones also put the game on ice with their last possession, getting tough yards inside converting a first down to put the game on ice.

As if this game needed any additional juice, Navy is going to be honoring All-Time great Roger Staubach with a ceremony at the game. If the Falcons want Staubach’s jersey number adorning the field to be the only cause for celebration for the Mids, they had better come prepared for four quarters of football. Otherwise, Air Force’s stint being ranked, along with their possession of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy may be abbreviated.

HERE’S HOW AIR FORCE CAN SINK THE MIDS

There is likely to be precipitation at some point during Saturday’s game. Ball security is always critical when you run some version of a time consuming option offense. I know many at Navy contend they have changed from the conventional triple option offense, but ultimately both of these teams have very similar philosophies. They run a lot, and they run very well.

Which brings up the biggest threat that the Falcons need to take inventory of, Alec Tecza. The Navy fullback is in a similar mold to Brad Roberts, minus a career suggesting he’s an all-time great at the program. Yet. Tecza is just a sophomore and has been a game changer with the ball in his hands.

Averaging over 230 yards per game on the ground, 5th best nationally, Navy has a lot of talent in their backfield. The fullbacks are an absolute strength with Daba Fofana and Tecza. The Air Force front seven have got to limit what the Mids backs are able to do on early downs especially.

Another area of the game to pay close attention to is turnovers. In games like this, the impact of a turnover seems to be magnified. Despite some very lopsided losses, Navy is one of the best at creating turnovers, forcing 12 of them. That’s twice as many as Air Force on the season. Neither team has thrown an interception this year, it will be interesting to see how many times the Falcons put the ball in the air with Jones getting his first start. The Falcons need a clean game in Annapolis.

I suspect the biggest deciding factor in this game is going to come through sustainability. The ability to keep drives alive, even if to flip field position, and conversely the ability to get off of the field. Both of these teams feature strong third down defenses. But where Air Force really stands out among the competition is in their ability to convert third downs. They are the best in the country, converting almost 60% of their third downs.

That defensive unit of Brian Knorr’s, not Newberry, is one of the best in the country. They aren’t going to make it easy for Navy to find daylight, a rhythm, conversions or points.

Even if the Navy run defense which allows double (148 yards per game) what the Falcons surrender on the ground, I don’t see it being sustainable. Eventually the dam is going to break from fatigue, as Air Force has shown a much better ability to maintain drives offensively and end them defensively. A slow suffocation.

I realize much of this relies on a quarterback making their first start on a critical stage. But all those diesels in front of Jensen Jones have experience to spare, and the supporting cast in the backfield is as dynamic and deep as any. Ask Wyoming if Jensen Jones can make a play to put you out.

And even if the game does come down to special teams, thankfully for Air Force, they have a dynamic kicker in Mathew Dapore who is perfect on the year.

Air Force Sings Second.

Air Force 20 – Navy 15

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Air Force vs. Wyoming: How the Falcons can win

Air Force vs. Wyoming: How the Falcons can win Can Air Force Remain the Lone Unbeaten in the Mountain West? Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire It’s Double Chin Strap Time as the Pokes Invade Colorado Springs WEEK 7: Air Force Falcons 5-0 (3-0) vs. …

Air Force vs. Wyoming: How the Falcons can win

Can Air Force Remain the Lone Unbeaten in the Mountain West?

Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

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It’s Double Chin Strap Time as the Pokes Invade Colorado Springs

WEEK 7: Air Force Falcons 5-0 (3-0) vs. Wyoming Cowboys 5-1 (2-0)

WHEN: Saturday, October 14th — 5:00 P.M. MT/ 4:00 P.M. PT

WHERE: Falcon Stadium (Colorado Springs, CO)

WEATHER: Sunny. High around 55F. Winds NE at 10 to 20 mph.

TV: CBS Sports Network
Rich Waltz (play-by-play), Aaron Taylor (analyst), Justin Walters (sidelines)

STREAM: FuboTV

RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 30-27-3

WEBSITES: GoWYO.com, the official Wyoming athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Wyoming | Air Force

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 10.9

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 13.8

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS: Air Force 93.61% Win Probability (31.3-11.45)

For the second week in a row, the Wyoming Cowboys find themselves battling another Mountain West contender. Coming off of an impressive win over Fresno State, Wyoming packs their bags, leaving the comforts of Laradise as they head South to Colorado Springs.

The Pokes are usually a difficult draw for Air Force, defeating Troy Calhoun’s squad in Laramie last year. So they will not be lacking for confidence coming to Falcon Stadium on Saturday, fresh off of a very impressive performance. Typically, a physical team that likes to run the ball, paired with good defense (sound like another team you know?), the Pokes got a boost from their quarterback, Andrew Peasley who had a very good game.

Peasley is no stranger to Air Force, as he’s had some of his best performances against the Falcons. Brian Knorr’s defensive unit could have their hands full with the Mountain West’s reigning offensive player of the week. If they aren’t able to do a better job than the prior two years, Air Force may be handed their first conference loss of the season by Andrew Peasley for the third season in a row.

HERE’S HOW AIR FORCE CAN DEFEAT THE COWBOYS

It wasn’t just that Wyoming beat the defending conference champs last week, but how they did so that should have the attention of Air Force, and the rest of the Mountain West. Outside of an uncharacteristic, missed 47 yard field goal from their Lou Groza Award Watchlist kicker, John Hoyland, the Pokes were dominant in all aspects of the game.

To avoid the same fate as Fresno State, the Falcons can’t let Wyoming’s passing game catch them off guard early. Andrew Peasley tossed three touchdowns in the first half last week. In similar fashion, he took advantage of generous cushions offered by the Air Force secondary in last year’s game. As one of the nation’s best defenses, their pass defense being 4th best in the country, the Falcons have to play like it early.

Craig Bohl wants his team to impose their will by running the ball. And they are very good at it, racking up over 170 yards per game on the ground. But it’s when the passing game is going that the Cowboys are really dangerous, because the honesty with which the defense has to dignify the pass attack leaves them vulnerable to an already imposing rushing attack. It’s not that dissimilar from Air Force’s approach.

There is going to be a lot of pressure on C.J. Boyd at spur and the standout safeties, Trey Taylor and Jayden Goodwin to consistently defend the run and the pass. Thankfully, this is a collective that has been up to the task week in and week out.

Now to the offense. Air Force has been as good as anyone in the country coming away with points every time they have the ball. They will be facing the best defensive front this week though, that is probably the best they’ll play all season. The Wyoming defensive line is insanely deep and talented. And it doesn’t get any easier when you get to their linebackers, with two of the best in the conference in Easton Gibbs and Shae Suiaunoa.

This unit was the leading cause of what was largely an ineffective Air Force offense last year. They can’t let that be the narrative in 2023. Quarterback Zac Larrier is a different kind of problem with his speed. They are going to be relying on his legs and timely gashes through the air to keep drives alive. One of the nation’s best on a per carry average, John Lee Eldridge II is going to have to continue with his impressive numbers. With what has become a relentless and multiple offense, it should afford these playmakers opportunities to make a difference in situations that simply weren’t there last year.

Last and certainly not least, they cannot turn the ball over. They’ve done a great job taking care of the rock the last few weeks and it will be critical that continues this week. That includes recovered fumbles because getting behind the sticks because of a poor pitch or penetration can be a drive ender.

My good friend and writer for the Mountain West Connection Nittany Falcon said something that stuck with me as we were discussing this game. Wyoming isn’t doing anything that impressive. They gave up a lot of points to New Mexico, looked underwhelming against Portland and their win against Appalachian State looks less and less impressive each week.

I think my friend and Falcon contributor is right. There is matching mediocrity to the moments of brilliance for Wyoming. But despite that, I simply cannot see how Air Force is a two-score favorite. It was a very similar story last year, and we’ve documented ad nauseam here. Maybe I respect that defensive front too much, but I see this as a closely contested affair to the very end. The Air Force offense is better though, their defense is better, and they are going to prove that their (lack of) strength of schedule is an overblown narrative.

Air Force 24 – Wyoming 20

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