Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning odds predictions pick betting line spread

Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning odds and lines, with NHL expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Toronto Maple Leafs (2-2-0) and Tampa Bay Lightning (2-2-1) meet Saturday at Amalie Arena. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (NHL Network). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

The Maple Leafs racked up 13 total goals in the first 2 games, with C Auston Matthews going for a pair of hat tricks, and all was well. Someone turned off the spigot in the past 2 games, with Toronto managing just a single goal in each of the outings, both losses.

The Lightning have been trying to keep their heads above water with Andrei Vasilevskiy sidelined until at least late November after back surgery. The Lightning have allowed at least 3 goals in all 5 outings, with the Over going 3-1-1 to date.

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Maple Leafs at Lightning odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:55 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Lightning +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs -1.5 (+170) | Lightning +1.5 (-210)
Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Maple Leafs at Lightning projected goalies

Ilya Samsonov (2-1-0, 3.67 GAA, .861 SV%) vs. Jonas Johansson (2-1-1, 3.53 GAA, .894 SV%)

Samsonov had his best outing to date in Florida Thursday, allowing just 2 goals on 23 shots, but he suffered his first loss of the season due to the lack of offensive support. He had allowed 9 goals in his first 2 starts, yet won both.

Johansson is confirmed to start Saturday. He has allowed at least 3 goals in each of his 4 starts, while posting a 2-0-0 record, 3.00 GAA and .900 SV% in 2 home outings.

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Maple Leafs at Lightning picks and predictions

Prediction

Maple Leafs 4, Lightning 3

Moneyline

The MAPLE LEAFS (-135) are a strong play to bounce back after the loss in Florida. Toronto gained a lot of confidence by ousting the Lightning (+115) in the postseason, snapping a lengthy playoff series drought in the process. In the regular season, Toronto has won 4 of the past 5 meetings overall, including 4 straight regular-season trips to Amalie Arena.

The Leafs have won 7 of the past 9 road games dating back to last season, while going 7-3 in the past 10 games when playing on a day of rest.

Puck line/Against the spread

The Lightning +1.5 (-210) will cost you more than 2 times your return, should you require a little insurance. If you like Tampa Bay, just play it straight up.

AVOID.

Over/Under

The Over/Under 7 is a risky play, as I think the total comes down exactly on the number.

With the Over cashing in 10 of the past 11 meetings in Tampa, and 14 of the past 19 meetings overall, the lean is to play Over, and taking a chance on the ALTERNATE LINE – OVER 6.5 (-155) is worth playing lightly.

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Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Game 6 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Game 6 odds and lines, with expert NHL picks, predictions and best bets.

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning meet in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals Saturday. The Maple Leafs lead the series 3-2. Puck drop from Amalie Arena is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

The Maple Leafs had a chance to put this series to bed in Game 5 in Toronto, and in typical Leafs fashion, Toronto wet that bed. It is now 0-10 in the past 10 elimination games when it has had a chance to advance. The Leafs still haven’t won a series since 2004.

The Lightning had been skidding hard, losing 3 straight games in this series since a dominant Game 1 victory (7-3, March 18). Tampa Bay dropped both Game 3 (4-3 in OT, Saturday) and Game 4 (5-4 in OT, Monday) on home ice in this series.

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Maple Leafs at Lightning odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Lightning -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs +1.5 (-275) | Lightning -1.5 (+220)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Maple Leafs at Lightning projected goalies

Ilya Samsonov (27-10-5, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO – regular season) vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (34-22-4, 2.65 GAA, .915 SV%, 4 SO – regular season)

Samsonov allowed 3 goals on 37 shots in Game 5 in Toronto, and he has now allowed 3 or more goals in 4 of the 5 games in this series, going 3-2-0 with a 3.62 GAA and .886 SV%.

Vasilevskiy easily had the best outing of his series in Game 5, allowing just 2 goals on 30 shots. Despite the win, he is still just 2-3-0 with a 3.90 GAA and .870 SV% in 5 games. He has allowed 4 or more goals in 3 of the previous 4 outings.

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Maple Leafs at Lightning picks and predictions

Prediction

Lightning 3, Maple Leafs 2

Moneyline

The LIGHTNING (-110) are a solid play on home ice, as Tampa Bay isn’t going 0-3 at Amalie Arena in these playoffs.

The intensity and pressure has been ratcheted up on the Maple Leafs (-110), who are now 0-10 in the past 10 elimination games. There is a lot of outside noise about how Toronto cannot close out a series and get over the hump. If Toronto allows a quick goal in the first period, this could be a lopsided win for the home side.

Puck line/Against the spread

The Maple Leafs +1.5 (-275) will cost you nearly 3 times your potential return, and that’s just not enough value and too much risk. There is no reason to make a play like that, whether it’s a standalone wager or part of a multi-pick parlay.

PASS.

Over/Under

The UNDER 6.5 (-110) is the lean in Game 6.

We saw our first Under result of the series in Game 5, and we’ll likely see the scoring opportunities dry up more as the intensity is at an all-time high. Tampa Bay doesn’t want to gamble too much, potentially setting up a Toronto breakaway, and the Leafs are going to be careful not trying to let the Lightning tie this one up for a decisive Game 7. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a 2-2 game in regulation, with an overtime winner.

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Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Game 4 odds and lines, with NHL expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning square off in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals on Monday. The Maple Leafs lead the series 2-1. Puck drop from Amalie Arena is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

The Maple Leafs regained home-ice advantage in Game 3, outlasting the Lightning in overtime on Saturday by a 4-3 score. Morgan Rielly scored the game-winner in OT. He is public enemy No. 1 in Tampa, not only for his GWG, but after what some fans saw as a questionable hit along the boards on Brayden Point.

The hit led to a donnybrook, which included the 1st-ever fight for Auston Matthews, as he took on Steven Stamkos. Nikita Kucherov and Ryan O’Reilly were also involved in a fracas.

The good news for the Lightning is that defenseman Victor Hedman was able to return in Game 3 after missing the last 5 periods of the series after an early undisclosed injury in Game 1.

Defenseman Erik Cernak remains sidelined, and he is question mark for Game 4 after the hit which led to a match penalty for Michael Bunting in Game 1. Bunting will serve the final 3-game of his suspension Monday.

Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner posted 2 assists in Game 3, and he is now up to 2 goals and 6 assists in the 1st 3 games of the series. He has multi-point games in each contest in the series. If you feel that will continue, he is listed at +140 to go Over 1.5 points at BetMGM Sportsbook, while Under -1.5 points is a rather hefty -190.

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Maple Leafs at Lightning odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 10:43 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Lightning -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs -1.5 (+200) | Lightning +1.5 (-250)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Maple Leafs at Lightning projected goalies

Ilya Samsonov (27-10-5, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO – regular season vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (34-22-4, 2.65 GAA, .915 SV%, 4 SO – regular season)

Samsonov coughed up 6 goals on 29 shots in Game 1, and he was hung out to dry frequently with several penalties leading to power-play opportunities (and goals) for the Lightning. He has tightened up in the last 2 games, both wins, stopping 56 of 61 shots while the offense has provided 11 goals of support.

Vasilevskiy yielded just 3 goals on 31 shots in the series opener, and 2 of those goals were on the man advantage, with another late in garbage time. He played well in Game 1. In the last 2 games, Vasilevskiy has allowed 11 goals on just 64 shots, good for just an .828 SV%.

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Maple Leafs at Lightning picks and predictions

Prediction

Lightning 5, Maple Leafs 3

Moneyline

The LIGHTNING (-105) are the play in Game 4, as Tampa Bay looks for the bounce back.

The Maple Leafs (-115) have won 4 of the last 5 meetings, while the favorite is 7-3 in the last 10 in this series. So you’ll be going against the grain a little here. However, this is also a Toronto team which hasn’t won a playoff series since 2004, and it hasn’t won a Stanley Cup since 1967. It has a lot of hockey bad juju working against it, and while that might not sound like a good betting strategy to some, are you betting against the hockey gods? It hasn’t worked in over a half century for the Leafs.

Puck line/Against the spread

The Lightning +1.5 (-250) will cost you 2 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not enough reward. Playing huge lines like that is just not a sound wagering strategy.

PASS.

Over/Under

The OVER 6.5 (-105) is the play yet again in Game 4.

The Over has cashed in each of the 1st 3 games of the series, and 9 straight meetings at Amalie Arena, so why stop now? The Over is also a healthy 13-3 in the previous 16 battles between these teams.

In addition, the Over has cashed at an 8-1 clip in the last 9 conference quarterfinals games for the Leafs, while also going 8-1 in the last 9 in the round for the Lightning. Keep going high on the total until further notice.

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Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Game 3 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Game 3 odds and lines, with NHL expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Toronto Maple Leafs visit the Tampa Bay Lightning Saturday for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals. Puck drop from Amalie Arena is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

The series is tied 1-1.

The Lightning opened the series with a 7-3 victory at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto Tuesday. The Maple Leafs rebounded in a big way, dropping the Lightning by a 7-2 score in Game 2 Thursday

Tampa Bay went 4-for-8 on the power play in Game 1, while Toronto was 2-for-4. In Game 2, the Lightning went 0-for-3 on the man advantage, while the Leafs were a solid 2-for-6.

Game 2 saw plenty of penalties too. Tampa Bay racked up 12 total penalties and 49 minutes, while Toronto was sent to the box 7 times for a total of 23 PIM. We had 94 total hits in Game 2, and we should see another physical affair in Game 3.

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Maple Leafs at Lightning odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:42 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Lightning +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs -1.5 (+200) | Lightning +1.5 (-250)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Maple Leafs at Lightning projected goalies

Ilya Samsonov (27-10-5, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO – regular season vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (34-22-4, 2.65 GAA, .915 SV%, 4 SO – regular season)

Samsonov was yanked after 2 periods in Game 1 in favor of G Joseph Woll after coughing up 6 goals on 29 shots. He settled down in Game 2, allowing just 2 goals on 22 shots.

Vasilevskiy allowed 3 goals on 31 shots in Game 1, with 2 of those goals coming on the man advantage. Most of the damage happened after the game was mostly out of hand, too. In Game 2, however, Vasilevskiy was a shell of himself, yielding 7 goals on 37 shots.

Vasilevskiy has allowed 14 goals on 92 shots — just an .848 SV% — in his past 3 starts against the Leafs, including the final regular-season start on April 11 at Amalie.

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Maple Leafs at Lightning picks and predictions

Prediction

Maple Leafs 4, Lightning 3

Moneyline

The MAPLE LEAFS (-120) are worth a look in Game 3, as Toronto looks to build upon its momentum after an offensive explosion in Game 2.

Toronto has won 5 out of its last 6 games on the road while going 4-0 in the past 4 outings when playing on a day of rest.

Despite their Game 1 win, the Lightning are still just 2-5 in the past 7 games overall.

Puck line/Against the spread

The Lightning +1.5 (-250) will cost you 2 1/2 times your potential return if you’d like a little bit of insurance.

Tampa Bay is 1-3 on the puck line as an underdog in the past 4, with the only cover coming in the series opener. It has lost the other 3 games dating back to April 5 by 3 or more goals.

PASS.

Over/Under

It’s all about the OVER 6.5 (+100) at even money in Game 3.

We’ve had 10 goals in the first game, and 9 total goals in the second installment of this series. Those totals are par for the course when the Lightning and Leafs hook up, as the Over is 9-2 in the past 11 meetings overall while cashing in 8 consecutive meetings in Tampa.

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Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Game 6 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Game 6 odds and lines, with NHL expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning meet Thursday in Game 6 of their 1st-round Eastern Conference playoff series. The Maple Leafs lead the series 3-2. Puck drop at Amalie Arena in Tampa is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we look at the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning odds and lines, and make our expert NHL picks, predictions and bets.

The Maple Leafs erased an early 2-0 deficit on home ice Tuesday, rallying for a 4-3 victory to move within 1 game of a series win. The Leafs haven’t advanced to the 2nd round since 2004.

The Lightning have their backs to the wall, facing elimination in the first round after winning the Stanley Cup in each of the past 2 seasons. Tampa Bay is 1-1 at home in this series, averaging 4.5 goals per game while yielding 4.0 goals per outing in these contests.

Maple Leafs at Lightning odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.

Money line: Maple Leafs +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Lightning -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs +1.5 (-220) | Lightning -1.5 (+165)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -140 | U: +112)

Maple Leafs at Lightning projected goalies

Jack Campbell (31-9-6, 2.64 GAA, .914 SV%, 5 SO – regular season) vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (39-18-5, 2.49 GAA, .916 SV%, 2 SO – regular season)

Campbell spotted the Lightning 2 goals in the first 6:11 of Game 5, but he settled down and allowed just 1 goal for the remainder of the game. He is 3-2-0 with a 3.41 GAA and .895 SV% with 1 shutout in 5 postseason games.

Vasilevskiy will have to save the Lightning again after a playoff loss. Since 2020, Vasilevskiy is 16-0 with a 1.41 GAA and .945 SV% with 5 shutouts following a loss in the postseason. Tampa Bay has a 26.2% mark on the power play while killing penalties at an 86.8% clip during that span.

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Maple Leafs at Lightning picks and predictions

Prediction

Lightning 4, Maple Leafs 2

Money line

The LIGHTNING (-130) have a championship pedigree, and the Maple Leafs have a really shaky postseason past. It’s hard to see Toronto ousting Tampa Bay and sending the 2-time defending champs to the handshake line, especially in their own barn.

Against the spread

The LIGHTNING -1.5 (+165) are worth a roll of the dice on the puck line but play it lightly. Tampa Bay is a prideful bunch that should force this series back to the Great White North for a decisive Game 7.

Over/Under

UNDER 6.5 (+112) is a risky play, but that’s the lean here.

The Over has hit in each of the last 4 games in this series after an Under result in Game 1. While the Maple Leafs have scored at least 3 goals in every game in this series, it’s time for Vasilevskiy to shine brightest when everything is on the line. Expect his best performance of the series.

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Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Game 4 odds and lines, with NHL expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning meet Sunday in Game 4 of their 1st-round Eastern Conference playoff series. The Maple Leafs lead the series 2-1. Puck drop at Amalie Arena in Tampa is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we look at the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning odds and lines, and make our expert NHL picks, predictions and bets.

The Leafs surprised the Lightning in Game 3 as the series shifted to Florida. Toronto suffered a disappointing 5-3 loss on home ice to cede home-ice advantage to the 2-time defending Stanley Cup champs, only to seize it back with a 5-2 win Friday in Tampa.

The Lightning turn to Andrei Vasilevskiy, who since 2020 is a crazy 15-0-0 with a 1.31 GAA, .948 SV% and 5 shutouts following a playoff loss. He is also 4th all-time in postseason history with a .923 SV%, so he’ll look to snap Tampa back on track yet again.

Maple Leafs at Lightning odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:49 a.m. ET.

Money line: Maple Leafs +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Lightning -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs +1.5 (-270) | Lightning -1.5 (+190)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

Maple Leafs at Lightning projected goalies

Jack Campbell (31-9-6, 2.64 GAA, .914 SV%, 5 SO – regular season) vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (39-18-5, 2.49 GAA, .916 SV%, 2 SO – regular season)

Campbell rebounded from a shaky performance in Game 2 to stop 32 of the 34 shots he faced in Game 3 to help the Maple Leafs grab the series lead. He is 2-1-0 with a 2.37 GA and .924 SV% with a shutout in the 3 games.

Vasilevskiy’s success after a playoff loss is well documented. Overall in this series, he has been outplayed. He is 1-2-0 with a 3.72 GAA and subpar .890 SV% in the 3 games. Vasilevskiy needs to be better or the postseason run ends early this year.

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Maple Leafs at Lightning picks and predictions

Prediction

Lightning 5, Maple Leafs 4

Money line

The LIGHTNING (-120) are slight favorites on home ice. Bet on their pedigree, bet against the Maple Leafs (+100) who have been perennial chokers and bet on Vasilevskiy who is the best in the business following a postseason setback.

Against the spread

The Maple Leafs +1.5 (-270) will cost you more than 2 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s too expensive for insurance. If you like them, just play it straight up. I don’t, however, and think Tampa squares the series in a close one.

AVOID.

Over/Under

OVER 6.5 (-120) is the best play on the board. We’ve had a total of 20 goals, or 6.7 goals per game, through the first 3 games in this series. We’ll see more offense in Game 4, as the only thing keeping that average from being higher was Tampa’s stunning shutout loss in Game 1. We’ll get fire-wagon hockey, and bettors won’t need a late empty-net goal to push the total Over like we saw in Game 3. This will be a lot more comfortable.

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Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Game 3 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Game 3 odds and lines, with NHL expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning meet for Game 3 of their 1st-round Eastern Conference playoff series Friday at Amalie Arena in Tampa. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we look at the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning odds and lines, and make our expert NHL picks, predictions and bets.

The Maple Leafs opened the series at home with a bang as they pounded the Lightning 5-0 in Game 1. However, the defending champs turned the tables with a 5-3 win Wednesday in Game 2. The good news for the Leafs is that C Auston Matthews and RW Mitch Marner have had a good series so far after being invisible in past playoff failures.

Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy helped the Lightning bounce back, as this team hasn’t lost consecutive playoff games since the opening-round loss in the 2020 NHL Playoffs against the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Maple Leafs at Lightning odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:35 a.m. ET.

Money line: Maple Leafs -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Lightning -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs +1.5 (-260) | Lightning -1.5 (+185)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

Maple Leafs at Lightning projected goalies

Jack Campbell (31-9-6, 2.64 GAA, .914 SV%, 5 SO – regular season) vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (39-18-5, 2.49 GAA, .916 SV%, 2 SO – regular season)

Campbell posted his second career postseason shutout in Game 1, but the Lightning offense exploded for 5 goals to saddle him with the home loss Wednesday. While he was 19-5-1 with a 2.22 GAA and .924 SV% with 4 of his 5 shutouts at home, he was an ordinary 12-4-5 with a 3.14 GAA and .904 SV% in 21 road starts.

Vasilevskiy showed out at home this season, going 20-8-4 with a 2.23 GAA and .921 SV% with both of his shutouts. He allowed just one goal on 37 shots in his most recent home outing against Toronto in an easy 8-1 win April 21.

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Maple Leafs at Lightning picks and predictions

Prediction

Lightning 4, Maple Leafs 3

Money line

The LIGHTNING (-115) are slight favorites, but they should be able to get the job at home and seize their first series lead. Tampa Bay has picked up 57 victories in its last 81 games as a home favorite. The Lightning rarely lose at home, especially in the postseason.

Against the spread

The Maple Leafs +1.5 (-260) are rather costly if you would like some insurance, as you must risk more than two and a half times your potential return. That’s way too expensive.

AVOID.

Over/Under

OVER 6.5 (+100) is the play at even money. The Over is a ridiculous 21-5-2 in the last 28 games on the road for the Leafs, including 7-1-1 in their last 9 outings as road underdogs.

The Over has cashed in 5 of the last 6 home games for the Lightning, and nine of their last 11 overall. The Over has hit in 5 of the last 7 meetings between these Atlantic Division rivals in Tampa, too.

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Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning odds and lines, with NHL expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Toronto Maple Leafs (44-19-5) continue their four-game road trip when they face the Tampa Bay Lightning (43-18-7) Monday at Amalie Arena. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (NHL Network). Below, we look at the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning odds and lines, and make our expert NHL picks, predictions and bets.

These two teams are currently in line to face one another in the first round on the playoffs. Toronto has won four games in a row, and they’re bludgeoning opponents with 6 goals per game across that span. Stud C Auston Matthews has goals in five straight outings, and he has pelted the twine in 12 of his last 14 games. His 51 goals have him in the running for the Hart Trophy.

Tampa had its four-game win streak snapped at the Montreal Canadiens Saturday despite being a -276 favorite. The Lightning have been very beatable lately with a three-game losing skid before that.

Maple Leafs at Lightning odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:10 a.m. ET.

Money line: Maple Leafs +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Lightning -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs +1.5 (-230) | Lightning -1.5 (+170)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Maple Leafs at Lightning projected goalies

Jack Campbell (25-9-4, 2.66 GAA, .914 SV%, 4 SO) vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (35-14-4, 2.37 GAA, .919 SV%, 2 SO)

Campbell returned from nearly a month-long hiatus for a 6-3 win over the Philadelphia Flyers Saturday. He stopped 29 of 32 shots to knock off the rust for this peak matchup, and he’ll need to be peak Campbell. He’s 1-1 with a 2.50 GAA and a .902 SV% against the Lightning this season.

Vasey was steady against the Chicago Blackhawks Friday in stopping 21 of 23 shots in a 5-2 win. Vasilevskiy was 6-6 with a 2.69 GAA and a .913 SV% in March. He hasn’t been the problem between the pipes. Vasey is 1-0-1 with a 2.44 GAA and a .931 SV% against Toronto this year.

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Maple Leafs at Lightning odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Maple Leafs 3, Lightning 2

Money line

This should be one of the more heated matchups of the season for both squads. Each team has a win in the series this year, but this is the first game in Tampa. The Leafs have 24 goals in the last 4 games while the Lightning have scored just 30 in their last 10 contests.

Toronto is just playing too well to resist the plus-money odds but get on it fast as it has already gone down from +110 this morning. Ride the MAPLE LEAFS (+105).

Against the spread

There’s no value on either side here unless you want to take a chance on Toronto -1.5 (+230). PASS.

Over/Under

Trends lead to the Over here, but this should be a tight game that resembles the 2-1 OT victory by Toronto in November. This is probably the most dangerous pick of the litter here, but let’s LEAN UNDER 6.5 (-115).

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