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The Toronto Maple Leafs (4-2-0) play the 4th contest of a 5-game road trip against the Dallas Stars (4-0-1) Thursday at American Airlines Center. Puck drop is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN+/TSN4). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Maple Leafs vs. Stars odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
The Maple Leafs have won the past 2 games at Tampa and Washington after opening the road trip with a 3-1 setback at Florida. The Leafs have managed to score 4 or more goals in 4 of 6 games overall.
The Stars picked up a 4-1 win against the Pittsburgh Penguins last time out on Tuesday, cashing on the puck line as favorites for the 1st time in 5 tries after 4 consecutive games decided by a single goal.
The Leafs swept the regular-season series from the Stars in 2022-23, including a 4-0 win Dec. 6, 2022 in the last trip to Dallas. The Under is 4-1 in the past meetings in this series.
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Maple Leafs at Stars odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:28 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Stars -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs +1.5 (-225) | Stars -1.5 (+185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Maple Leafs at Stars projected goalies
Ilya Samsonov (2-1-0, 4.34 GAA, .831 SV%) vs. Jake Oettinger (3-0-1, 1.44 GAA, .952 SV%)
Samsonov was pulled last time out after allowing 3 goals on just 4 shots in Tampa Bay. G Joseph Woll relieved him, and the Leafs ended up rallying for the 4-3 win in overtime. Samsonov has allowed 3 or more goals in 3 of his 4 starts this season.
Oettinger kicked aside 38 of the 39 shots he faced against the Penguins, and he has allowed just 6 total goals on 126 shots this season, firing out of the chute. He won his only home start of the season, topping the Blues in a 2-1 shootout with 23 saves on 24 shots.
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Maple Leafs at Stars picks and predictions
Prediction
Stars 3, Maple Leafs 1
The STARS (-125) might have been swept by the Maple Leafs (+105) last season, but Dallas is playing much better hockey right now.
Samsonov cannot be trusted in Big D, as he was tattooed in Tampa last time out. Oettinger has been tremendously consistent, and he and Dallas are worth playing while he remains red hot.
Puck line/Against the spread
The STARS -1.5 (+185) are worth playing lightly for the chance to nearly double up.
There is risk, as Dallas covered on the puck line as a favorite last time out for the first cover in 5 times.
The Maple Leafs +1.5 (-225) can’t be trusted due to uneven goaltending so far this season, especially on the part of Samsonov. Until he irons out his problems, stay away.
Over/Under
The UNDER 6 (+100) is the lean, but go lightly.
The Under is 4-1 in the past 5 meetings in this series, while going 3-0-1 in the past 4 games overall for the Maple Leafs. The Under is 4-1 in 5 games overall for the Stars, too, allowing 3 or fewer goals in 4 of 5 outings, as well.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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