Tag: Tony Pollard

Tony Pollard’s 2020 High-Low projections based on McCarthy’s backs

What’s in store for No. 20 in 2020? While most of the focus has been on how McCarthy will use Elliott, what has the HC done with the backup?

Tony Pollard was an exciting addition to the Dallas Cowboys’ offense in 2019. The Memphis running back showed an elite mix of speed and balance through contact, leading to several exciting runs throughout his rookie campaign as Ezekiel Elliott’s backup. While Elliott has certainly shown his propensity to carry the load for the Cowboys during his first four years, many see Pollard carving out a bigger share of offensive touches in 2020 to help maximize his extreme versatility.

Pollard was impressive in both volume and efficiency stats. He toted the rock 86 times for 455 yards and two scores on a 5.3 yards-per-carry average. He also caught 15 passes for another 107 yards and another score. What made it more impressive is that there were several weeks when Pollard was at or near the top of the entire league in expected points added, or EPA, a measure of how much the player contributed to scoring.

While Kellen Moore returns as offensive coordinator for the Cowboys, newly installed head coach Mike McCarthy is an offensive-minded head coach, and he will likely have an integral role in changes to the Cowboys offense this coming season. What will that mean for Pollard? Will his role increase as many hope, or will McCarthy lean heavily on Elliott? A look into McCarthy’s previous 19 seasons as a play caller is in order.

As head coach of the Green Bay Packers for 13 seasons, offensive coordinator of New Orleans for five years and San Francisco for another season, McCarthy has had several approaches to how he deploys his starting and backup running backs. For certain, talent and injuries play a role in how much time the backups spent on the field.

Running-Back-By-Committee Years

In three different seasons with the Packers and his one year as OC of the 49ers, McCarthy had to resort to a running back by committee approach.

2007: The most successful RBBC season had rookie Ryan Grant playing 15 games and starting seven of them. He rushed 188 times for 956 yards and scored eight TDs on the ground along with 30 receptions. Brandon Jackson and DeShawn Wynn combined for 125 carries, 470 yards and five more scores with Vernand Morency chipping in 30 receptions.

2012: The team simply lacked a bell cow running back. Alex Green, Cedric Benson, and James Starks all started multiple games and none rushed for more than 3.6 yards a carry. DuJuan Harris had the best stat line in his two starts with a 4.6 yards per carry average and two scores. None of the receivers topped Green’s 18 receptions for the year.

2016: In Eddie Lacy’s final year with the club he started just five games. Ty Montgomery converted from WR to RB and led the team with 77 rushes, 457 yards and 3 scores on the ground with 44 receptions and another 347 receiving yards. James Starks also started four contests and Christine Michael played in six contests. The team made it to the NFC Championship that year, though.

2017: Beginning of the end as team finished 7-9 with a committee of Montgomery, Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones, though the three combined for 1,700+ yards and 14 touchdowns on ground and through air.

2005: The lone San Francisco year and under head coach Mike Nolan, the club went 4-12 with QB by committee that led to rookie Alex Smith at QB. Rookie Frank Gore led the group that rushed for just under 1,500 yards with 9 ground scores, but not much through the air.

These years will likely have no significance in what the Cowboys attempt to do with Elliott, provided he stays healthy for the seventh year in a row. What is more likely to happen is that the club follows the model of the bell cow back years under McCarthy.

Bell-Cow Seasons

As has been well documented, McCarthy’s time as Saints OC will likely be the precedent for how he deals with having a back of Elliott’s caliber. There are also two key seasons with the Packers that give insight into this and how Pollard may fit into the his picture.

2000: Chad Morton had 36 carries and 30 catches for 349 total yards as Ricky Williams backup, but 13 of his catches came in two games he started with Williams out.

2001: Deuce McAllister was a rookie backup to Williams big season of 1,245 yards on the ground and 60 receptions. The youngster touched the ball 31 times for 257 total yards and two scores.

2002: Someone named James Fenderson backed up McAllister’s huge season (1,388 rush yards, 47 receptions,  16 total TDs) and touched the ball a total of 19 times for just over 100 yards.

2003: KiJana Carter and Lamar Smith backed up McAllister and saw 32 touches while the lead back accrued over 2,100 total yards with eight touchdowns.

2004: As McAllister slowed down (1,049 rush yards in 14 games), Aaaron Stecker had 87 touches for 418 yards and two scores.

The New Orleans years don’t look very promising for the second back’s prospects of a big season. Certainly Pollard’s rookie season performance shows far higher of a ceiling than anyone above but McAllister, who was a first-round pick and intended future starter.

But in Green Bay, we may find the best comparison for Pollard in one James Starks. Pollard is actually a stockier version, as they were close to the same weight (210 pounds) coming out of school, but Starks stood 6-foot-2 compared to Pollard’s 6-foot. They ran similar 40-yard dash times (Pollard – 4.52, Starks 4.50) had similar verticals (Pollard – 35″, Starks 36″) and broad jumps (Pollard – 121″, Starks 119″).

Starks was drafted in 2010 and was part of a hodgepodge collection of backs that worked behind Brandon Jackson and Ryan Grant before the six-headed RBBC of 2012. Then Eddie Lacy came aboard and Starks was the primary handcuff for Lacy’s three-year reign.

2013: Starks and Johnathan Franklin combined for 108 carries and 14 receptions, totaling 719 yards from scrimmage with five scores.

2014: Starks had 85 carries and 18 receptions, an almost identical touch total to what Pollard saw in Dallas as a rookie.

In 2015, Lacy had begun to eat himself out of the league and though he started 12 of the 15 games he played, he only carried the ball 187 times for 758 yards and only had 20 receptions. Starks picked up the slack.

2015:  Starks had 148 carries and 43 receptions for 601 and 392 yards respectively. He had five total touchdowns.

High Projection

There’s no guarantee Pollard follows any of these models, but they are interesting case studies, especially the Starks comparison. The 2014 season is the most similar to how Dallas functioned in 2019.

Pollard is too good to be treated as the New Orleans’ backups were behind Williams and McAllister.

The high-end projection model is likely the 2006 campaign, McCarthy’s first in Green Bay.

2006: Ahman Green played and started 14 contests and carried the ball 266 times for 1,059 yards. He also saw 63 targets, catching 46 of them for another 373 yards, scoring six total TDs.

In that season, the Packers backed Green up with Vernand Morency and Noah Herron, playing 29 total games with two starts. The two combined  for 128 rush attempts and 45 catches, 173 touches total. They accrued 571 rush yards and 323 receiving yards; 894 yards from scrimmage, and checked in with five scores.

This is likely what the best-case scenario looks like for Pollard if the reigns are pulled back on Elliott.

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When healthy, Redskins’ Derrius Guice was No. 1 most elusive RB in NFL

The best ability is availability, but considering what Derrius Guice could do during his brief action in 2019, his future is bright.

One of the biggest knocks on Washington Redskins running back Derrius Guice has been his ability to stay healthy. During his two full seasons in the NFL, he’s played in just five games, missing his entire rookie year with a torn ACL, and being sent to the IR twice in 2019 for multiple knee injuries.

When he’s been on the field, however, Guice is nothing but electric. In his five games with the Redskins, he has a total of three touchdowns and 324 total yards on just 49 touches. Though it is a small sample size, those are impressive numbers.

Pro Football Focus would agree. In a recent Stat Spotlight that they did, tracking the elusiveness rating for every RB in the NFL, Guice doesn’t make the list simply because of his minimal number of reps. However, if you were to change the qualifier from 100 carries to 20 carries, Guice jumps up to the No. 1 overall spot.

Don’t know what we’re talking about when we say discuss the elusiveness rating? It simply measures a back’s forced missed tackles and yards after contact.

When you look at the 2019 season as a whole, Dallas Cowboys rookie Tony Pollard (116.1), and Oakland Raiders rookie Josh Jacobs (103.6) were near the top of the list, and Tennessee Titans’ Derrick Henry was not far behind. But from weeks 11-13, when Guice was healthy and getting a decent workload, his rating, 175.3, was higher than anyone this season.

The low number of attempts skews the statistics a little bit, and if you want to believe that with more of a sample size Guice would have fallen off quite a bit, go ahead. But if you watched Guice when he was on the field, and you saw what he could do with the football when given a chance, you know that the Redskins have something special, should he be able to stay healthy. This PFF stat proves exactly that.

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News: Pollard, Elliott both better than almost all the rest, Jaylon’s true mission

Mike McCarthy has never had a backfield like this. Jaylon Smith isn’t only interested in building his brand for himself. A 4-round mock.

With no major coaching changes left to make, the focus for Dallas must shift to free agency. The Cowboy’s have five Pro Bowl players or former Pro Bowl players in their pending free agent class, so it makes sense these negotiations will generate a lot of headlines. Today’s news discuss the Wide receiver market, including two Cowboys, as well as the latest on talks with Dak Prescott.

You might have already seen LSU Safety Grant Delpit projected to go to the Cowboys in the first round, but continue reading to see why his teammate could also be an option. Plus, Tony Pollard receives some credit for his impressive rookie season, and Jaylon Smith is making positive waves on and off the field. Here are the News and Notes for Friday, February 7, 2020.

Jaylon Smith featured on The Today Show :: DallasCowboys.com

Smith had a productive 2019 season for Dallas, as he found his way to his first Pro Bowl. Smith’s contributions, however, haven’t been limited to just the football field. Smith talked to NBC’s Morgan Radford about how he is creating opportunities for others through his creation of MEI, or the Minority Entrepreneurship Institute.

It connecs investors with minority-owned enterprises to help push them to the next level.

“My passion and purpose is, how can I help my people. You look at all these Fortune 500 companies, billionaires, the majority of them are white males. So for me it’s about attacking that, and being able to close that gap, this to make ultimately make the world a better place for Black, Brown, Latino. That’s why I started MEI.”

MEI has an annual competition and last year had over 70 entrants with three winning over $200,000 in investments. Smith has pledged over $2.5 million to MEI.

To invest, apply, or learn more please visit jaylonsmith.com/mei.

–AH

Cowboys RB Tony Pollard finished 2019 as PFF’s second-best graded rookie running back :: Blogging The Boys

Without a 2019 first-round pick, it was paramount the Cowboys find value at their other picks. After only a few short games into the season, it became clear that Tony Pollard would be that. Unfortunately he wasn’t used nearly as much as he could have been in tandem with Ezekiel Elliott.

PFF released their grades for rookie RB’s, and Pollard graded out as the second best, only behind the Raiders’ Josh Jacobs. The elusive Pollard provides a different skillset than the punishing Elliott. Pollard averaged an excellent 5.3 yards per carry on 20 percent of the Dallas carries. Pollard’s role and ability are sure to grow as he enters his sophomore NFL season.

–AH

The NFL’s top 10 RBs entering 2020: Where does the Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliott rank among the league’s best? :: Dallas Morning News

Elliott comes in second on this top 10 running back list by the indispensable John Owning. The player ahead of him is Christian McCaffrey of the Carolina Panthers. There’s nothing inherently wrong with the choice, as Elliott lacks the volume in the passing game that his counterpart possesses. What Elliott has proven, however, is an incredible amount of durability that has kept him in this exact conversation for four consecutive years since entering the league.

–TT

Ezekiel Elliott’s peers help prove why he is transcendent at his position :: Cowboys Wire

Cowboys Wire takes on the rabble-roused crowd that believes running backs don’t matter. He admits that in most cases, almost all cases, the running backs who have received big contracts shouldn’t have, as rumors abound the Rams and Cardinals are looking to rid themselves of recent deals for Todd Gurley and David Johnson.

The article systematically takes on the consistency since Day 1 and durability throughout his life that shows why Elliott was a wise investment while the others, including Leveon Bell, were questionable. Tying it together with a look at Elliott being the only back through the last four years to constantly produce and it’s the white paper for arguments those who support Elliott should always keep in their back pockets.

— KD

4-Round Cowboys Mock Draft: Superstar WR and potential FA tag decisions :: Cowboys Wire

Mock drafts are a mixed bag. The scenarios are often bit of a reach and this particular one might be exactly that. This time the Cowboys come away with the consensus top receiver from the draft at No. 17. Here he is the fourth receiver off the board which seems impossible, but it’s not as if wild things haven’t taken place on draft night. This is about as good as a draft night gets in Dallas. Click through to see all the players the Cowboys were able to get their hands on.

–TT

NFL Free Agency 2020: Predicting Where the Top WRs Will Land :: Bleacher Report

Two of the Cowboy’s most important free agents come at the wide receiver position this year; Amari Cooper and Randall Cobb. Cooper is coming off a career year and Cobb is very familiar with new head coach Mike McCarthy from their seven years together in Green Bay, so WR seem to have plenty of motivation to stay in Dallas.

Bleacher Report listed eight of the best WR in the upcoming free agent class. The Cowboys’ Cooper checked in at No. 1 and Cobb at No. 3 on said list. Dallas would like to keep both but need to be prepared to fill the gaps next to up-and-coming Michael Gallup if they are not able to come to terms with Cooper and Cobb. Some names listed that could be options in Dallas include Emmanuel Sanders, Robby Anderson, AJ Green, and others. Dallas has also shown mutual interest in a possible Dez Bryant return.

–AH

Cowboys 2020 draft prospect: Edge K’Lavon Chaisson could bolster the pass rush :: Blogging The Boys

Like many other teams, free agency will be a big determining factor in how the Cowboys will approach the 2020 NFL draft. Secondary and defensive line are the two most clear needs for Dallas, and one of those positions could slide into first priority based on how the Cowboys’ staff handles negotiations with key free agents like corenerback Byron Jones and defensive end Robert Quinn.

Chasisson is a name that has skyrocketed up draft boards in recent weeks after a great end of the season with national champion LSU. He is a versatile edge player who flashes in pass-rush scenarios and plays solid gap football in defending the run. While names like Grant Delpit and Javon Kinlaw are mocked left and right to the Cowboys, Chaisson could be exactly what Dallas needs, especially should they move on from Robert Quinn.

–AH

Cowboys’ ‘fixing-to-heat-up’, $33M-average talk for Prescott deal has an asterisk :: CowboysWire

The Prescott contract negotiations are on of the hottest topics of the offseason, and they may be about to intensify. In a recent report by the Star-Telegram it was confirmed that Prescott turned down a $33 million a year deal in September; a figure that would place Prescott into the top-five paid NFL players annually.

VP Stephen Jones spoke about how he believes the talk will ramp up to another level soon, as the Jones family knows how important it is to get their QB under contract long term. Our own Tony Thompson and K.D. Drummond examine the updates in Prescott’s situation and the contract details that could be keeping the deal from coming together.

–AH

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Home Alone: Cowboys’ productivity has a decided advantage at AT&T

The Dallas Cowboys had major problems on the road this season and it all comes from getting to conservative away from home.

The Dallas Cowboys struggled on offense in the loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, failing to score a touchdown for just the second time this season. Both of those games occurred on the road, where the team’s had issues for the majority of the year, finishing with a 3-5 mark.

Winning away from home is hard in the NFL, but the Cowboys appear to look like a completely different team at home versus on the road. Dallas destroyed the Los Angeles Rams last week at AT&T Stadium, but got beaten soundly by a less talented Eagles team at Lincoln Financial Field.

The offense, in particular, feels like a different version of itself when they go on the road. It’s been well chronicled how WR Amari Cooper has struggled during away games, but he’s not the only problem for the team when they play on the road.

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Quarterback Dak Prescott has fared much better at home as well, throwing for more touchdowns (16-10), yards (2,317-2,282), and has a higher passer rating (104.8-91.4). Ironically, Prescott has more attempts on the road than at home, likely because the Cowboys often trail more away from the friendly confines of AT&T Stadium.

However, Prescott’s yards per attempt on the road sits at 7.36, which would put him 16th in the league, versus 9.15 at home, which would rank Prescott second in the NFL in yards per pass.

RB Ezekiel Elliott, meanwhile, has better numbers while on the road. Elliott has 39 more carries, more yards (649-586) and more total touchdowns (7-5) away from home. The star runner also has more targets and receptions in road games. With the Cowboys usually playing from ahead or in close games at home, while trailing so many games on the road, you would think Elliott should have more carries at home, and by a decent margin. That doesn’t appear to be the case.

Compare that with how the team uses back-up RB Tony Pollard. The rookie runner has had some big moments, but almost all of them came at home. Outside of the game in Detroit, Pollard hasn’t done much on the road. Pollard has just 18 road rushes for 87 yards on the year, but has 54 carries for 308 yards and two scores at home.

Pollard has turned out to be an explosive player for the Cowboys, and one who has shown he can produce when given the opportunity. The team hasn’t given Pollard enough chances to make plays on the road.

These are three specific players who demonstrate what the Cowboys do when they play away from home. The game plan and play calling goes into a protective shell and the offense loses much of their aggression on the road. Dallas’ offense averages 22.1 points on the road, but was held to 10 points or fewer three times. They average 30 a game at home and scored at least 31 points three times at Jerry World.

We can speculate about who’s to blame for the home/road splits for the Cowboys, but it’s clear they don’t trust the quarterback or much of the offense to win games on the road. There are more handoffs, shorter throws and a lack of creativity when Dallas plays away from home.

The question is why? The Cowboys have a very good QB, elite skill players and a formidable group blocking for them all; why is the game plan so timid on the road?

Perhaps a question best answered by the next head coach of the Dallas Cowboys. Hopefully that coach won’t let the offense lose their aggression for half of the games on the schedule.

You can chat with or follow Ben on twitter @BenGrimaldi.

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Instant Analysis: Cowboys can’t score when their lives depended on it

Once again, the Cowboys couldn’t complete a comeback they desperately needed, falling to the Eagles 17-9 in Week 16.

The Cowboys 2019 season hopes took a massive hit, as they fell to Philadelphia 17-9 in Week 16. A win would’ve clinched the division, but now the Cowboys find themselves on the outside looking in, needing help heading into the final week of the season to make the playoffs.

The loss to the Eagles dropped the club’s record to 7-8 and they need to win next week and get help from the 4-11 New York Giants to earn a berth. In other words, things are looking grim.

It was over when . . .

. . . Dak Prescott and Michael Gallup couldn’t connect on 4th and 8 from the Philadelphia 23 with 1:21 left in the game. The play survived a replay review for defensive pass interference before it was ultimately upheld as an incompletion. The Eagles took over on downs, and bled out the clock.

Game balls

WR Michael Gallup

One of the lone sources of offense early in the game, Michael Gallup led the team with 98 receiving yards on five catches. His 41 yard grab in the second quarter was the team’s longest play from scrimmage, and set up Dallas’s first field goal. Gallup’s night could’ve been much bigger however, had he been able to reel in some crucial catches on the team’s final drive.

DE DeMarcus Lawrence

Lawrence did much of the dirty work on defense to keep the Cowboys in the game. He recorded just three total tackles (two solo), but also affected the game with two pass defenses and another QB hit. His presence on the defensive line opens things up for many of the other Dallas pass rushers.

K Kai Forbath

For better and for worse, Forbath was the entire Cowboys offense. He made all three field goals, hitting from 49 twice and another from 32. Unfortunately, even with a more reliable kicker, this year’s Dallas team continues to struggle and underachieve on offense.

Key Stat: 33%

Prescott targeted Amari Cooper 12 times, resulting in just four catches for 24 yards. It was a night where the Cowboys’ No. 1 receiver could’ve really taken advantage of a beat up Philadelphia secondary, but Cooper simply wasn’t able to get consistently open, or do much with the ball in his hands.

Quick Hits:

  • It was far from Dak Prescott’s best game, who finished completing 25 of 44 passes for 265 yards, two sacks, zero touchdowns. It was only the second time all season he didn’t record either a passing or rushing touchdown. He was off on several throws, and didn’t receive much help on others, but overall, it was a disappointing result in a must-win game.
  • Six of Prescott’s pass attempts resulted in drops, a running theme this season. Jason Witten and Cooper were each guilty of memorable drops in the first half that would’ve really helped the Cowboys’ cause.
  • Tony Pollard’s fumble on Dallas’s opening second half drive ended their best opportunity to take control of the game. The Cowboys looked to be in command, and were just outside Philadelphia’s red zone before Pollard took his only two rushing attempts of the game. The rookie has been electric this season, but he greatly cost Dallas this game.
  • Unfortunately, Pollard was only in that situation because Ezekiel Elliott was previously shaken up, and took himself out of the game. It was tough sledding for Elliott early, who was mostly bottled up before coming to life in the third quarter. He ultimately rumbled for 47 yards on 13 carries, but it seemed like the Cowboys insistence on getting Elliott going really sputtered and held back their offense.
  • The Dallas offense benefitted from two missed Jake Elliott field goals from 53 and 55 yards out, setting them up with rare short fields and keeping them in the game. Only able to come away with field goals themselves, the game could’ve been much different if the Cowboys had been able to reach the end zone.
  • Freshly signed LB Malcolm Smith recorded two tackles, including one for loss. He was also involved during Xavier Woods’ early third down stop on Miles Sanders at the end of the first quarter. It was a good showing on short notice for the former Super Bowl MVP.
  • The Dallas defense came up with a huge series to force an Eagles punt with 4:40 left in fourth quarter, giving the offense one last chance. Michael Bennett stopped Sanders in the backfield on first down, and then Robert Quinn strip-sacked Carson Wentz to set up botched screen attempt on 3rd and 18. Philadelphia had been driving, looking to go back up two scores and end the game, before being forced backward by an emotionally charged Cowboys defense.
  • Jason Garrett does not win these games. His team once again folded when given another chance to prove what kind of team they are. Garrett’s conservative game management really limited their chances as the game wore on, perhaps best evidenced by his early fourth quarter decision to punt from his own 33 down 11 points.
  • Needing to be extra aggressive and in the face of a very manageable 4th and 1, Garrett instead opted to punt, and was rewarded with a Blake Jarwin false start. He ended up choosing 38 yards of field position over a chance at extending the drive, in a game where Dallas would only get two more possessions.
  • Somehow, the Cowboys are still in the playoff picture at 7-8. The NFC East’s comical battle royal all comes down to Week 17, as all four teams play each other. If the Eagles fall to New York, and the Cowboys win over Washington, they’ll win division and stumble into the playoffs.

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‘We’re clicking:’ Cowboys RBs look to carry momentum into Philadelphia

Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard combined for a monster game versus the Rams and hope their two-headed beast keeps rolling against Philly.

e Dallas Cowboys enjoyed their best game of the season on Sunday, thoroughly thumping the defending NFC champions from Los Angeles as they fought for their playoff lives. While highlights like Jason Witten making a one-handed grab and Tavon Austin finding himself all alone on a long touchdown pass made for fun television, it was largely a ground-based attack that propelled the team to a 44-21 win and a renewed sense of hope regarding a second straight division title.

The Cowboys ran for 263 yards against the Rams, their best effort of 2019 and highest single-game rushing total since 2017. Ezekiel Elliott logged 117 yards on 24 carries and found the end zone twice, while rookie Tony Pollard had his most productive day as a pro, racking up 131 yards on just 12 carries. The notion of the pair being a lethal double-headed backfield beast has tantalized fans ever since the club drafted the speedy Pollard out of Memphis and then cemented Elliott’s place on the team with a lucrative contract extension. Sunday felt like the first real unleashing of that monster, and it makes this Cowboys squad perhaps the scariest 7-7 team in memory as they ratchet up their ground game for a late December surge toward the postseason.

“We know how good our offensive line is,” Elliott said after Sunday’s win. “When we go out there and handle our business, when we go out there and execute, we’re hard to stop.”

“How many rushing yards did we have today? Like, 300? Close to it?” Elliott asked after the Week 15 win. “We ran the ball really well today. The O-line, I don’t know what they ate for breakfast, but they did a hell of a job and made it easy on us backs.”

Three-fifths of that offensive line- center Travis Frederick, guard Zack Martin, and tackle Tyron Smith- were just named to the 2020 Pro Bowl, along with Elliott.

“It starts up front,” quarterback Dak Prescott said in his postgame remarks Sunday. “Communicating. Those guys coming off the ball was beautiful. And then you look at the runners, the way they did. Broke tackles, made people miss. Both of those guys. That was so impressive.”

But Elliott may actually want to investigate what his line ate for breakfast last week and order it in bulk for Sunday. Up next for the group is a Philadelphia Eagles front that ranks third in the league in run defense, allowing an average of just 90.4 yards per game. They’ve given up over 100 rushing yards just four times all year. One of those instances, however, came against Dallas in their Week 7 meeting, when the Cowboys as a team rolled for 189 yards on the ground.

Now the Cowboys’ rushing attack will look to build off last Sunday’s 263-yard outing in the Philadelphia rematch that would award Dallas the NFC East crown with a victory.

“It’s great to know that a single win gets us in there, but that’s not our goal,” Elliott said. “Our goal isn’t just to make the playoffs. We want to keep this thing rolling, we want to ride this momentum.”

“Momentum is a dangerous thing,” Prescott echoed. “And it’s about getting it on our side.”

The acquisition and development of Pollard cannot be understated when reflecting on the 2019 season. The 22-year-old was selected in the fourth round of April’s draft. The speedster’s skills at returning kicks was documented, but it was hoped that he could be a potent change of pace to Elliott in the Dallas backfield, too.

Pollard’s usage has been up and down this season, but maybe he’s suddenly getting some of that momentum his quarterback mentioned. Against the Rams, Pollard logged double-digit carries for the first time since Week 3. That game saw the team rush for 235 yards as a whole, their previous top performance before this past Sunday. Granted, it’s a small sample size, but good things seem to happen when both Elliott and Pollard are heavily involved.

Prescott has definitely noticed the electrifying jolt his first-year weapon brings to the offense. He marveled of Pollard, “He’s just something else. Arm tackles and all that stuff, he’s just getting through it. He continues to make plays anytime the ball’s in his hands, and he’s a special player. Thankful we have him.”

“Seeing him just become a better player is kind of crazy,” Elliott said of Pollard. “I remember his first OTA, he was kind of a little timid and not really running as hard. We didn’t have on pads. But just to see him from there to now, it’s awesome. He’s a smart player, but also very skilled. He has a very bright future.”

For his part, the rookie has embraced the mentorship that the two-time league rushing champ has offered.

“He’s been like a big brother since I got here,” Pollard said of Elliott. “Taking me under his wing. Showing me, teaching me things that I didn’t know at first. He’s done a great job of that.”

And when both of them are ripping off hundred-yard days, it’s good to be a Cowboy: offense, defense, or otherwise.

“It’s just fun,” Pollard said of the team’s dominance on the ground on Sunday. “It just keeps the sideline excited, me and him talking… it’s just a good feeling: both guys clicking, the O-line’s clicking, the defense is rolling, special teams.”

“That’s what we’re built for. We’re built to be a balanced team,” Tyron Smith said of the Week 15 win, the first time since October 2018 that the Dallas ground game has outrushed Prescott’s passing totals. “I think the identity has always been there. It’s just, for us, doing it as a team, knowing what we’ve got to get done.”

Now they’ll have to get it done against the Eagles, a team they’ve beaten in each of their last four meetings. And they’ll have to get it done in Philly’s own house, a trip that coach Jason Garrett’s squads typically do well with.

“It’s a playoff game,” Prescott said of Sunday’s showdown. “Obviously, simple as that: it’s a playoff game. It’s a rival, it’s a team in the division, it’s a must-win game. We have to approach it as a playoff game, and that’s the way we will.”

The Cowboys’ prolific rushing attack was a revelation against the Rams in Week 15. Week 16 should prove to be more challenging, with an even tougher opponent versus the run and a divisional crown on the line.

Elliott knows what he and Pollard did last week obviously won’t count at Lincoln Financial Field, but it just might have helped give the team a good running start.

“I think we did set up some momentum. But we’ve still got a lot of work to do, got lot of work to do this season. And we’re just getting started.”

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Week 16 EPA Power Rankings: Rumors of Cowboys demise greatly exaggerated

Dallas proves they are everything the advanced stats say they are with big win in LA

The Cowboys finally displayed the full power of an offense that the advanced stats have been saying exists all season.  It was a truly dominating win, and the first one against a team over .500 all season.  We knew this team was capable of trouncing the Dolphins and the Giants, but now they’ve proved that they really could be better than their record suggests.

In this week’s EPA power rankings, the Cowboys climb right back into the top five, a spot they lost only last week to the very same Rams team that just got doubled up by Dallas in Week 15.

Expected Points, the foundation of many analytical arguments, uses data from previous NFL seasons to determine how many points a team is likely to come away with on a given play based on down, distance, time remaining, and field position. The difference in expected points at the start of a play and expected points at the end is referred to as expected points added, or EPA.

A play with a positive EPA means it put the offense in a better position to score, while negative EPA implies the offense is in a worse position.

The below rankings represent team EPA differential (offense EPA minus defense EPA) adjusted for opponent strength.

The 44-point outing from the Cowboys cemented their spot as the second-best offense in the NFL, trailing only Baltimore in that category.  This was really the first week they put it all together since that great stretch over the first three weeks of the season.  There’s arguments to be made that this offensive explosion was due to the two-headed monster of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, both of whom surpassed 100 rushing yards in the game.  There are also arguments to be made that an incredibly efficient day from Dak Prescott (9.2 YPA, 2TD) was the biggest contributor.  All that really matters is that both were on fire on Sunday against a really good Rams defense.

Pollard and Elliott ranked first and fourth, respectively, in EPA/carry in Week 15.  Prescott had the eight best EPA/dropback.  This offense was humming and proving to be a worthy playoff contender regardless of their record.

Outside of this game, there wasn’t a ton of movement within our ranks this week.  The Falcons made the biggest leap, going up five spots after taking down the vaunted San Francisco 49ers as time expired.

The most interesting team on here this week might be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The Bucs won’t make the playoffs, and yet they sit just outside the top ten in adjusted EPA differential, right above the teams in contention for the AFC South.

The fact that Tampa has maintained a slightly above average passing offense by EPA/play is frankly astounding considering the fact that Jameis Winston leads the league with 24 interceptions and five pick-sixes.  Pair that with the best run defense this season and a top five pass defense since Week 10 (I know, I was shocked too) and you’ve got a recipe for a team on the verge of a turnaround.  Bruce Arians has still got it.

Here’s a visual of team passing defense since Week 10, where you can see Tampa Bay ever so slightly edging out the New England Patriots in passing EPA.

Philadelphia didn’t move up or down at all this week, but they did lose their title of Most Average 2019 NFL Team (closest to 0 EPA differential) to the Indianapolis Colts.  While watching the Colts get stomped by the Saints on Monday Night Football, I couldn’t help but wonder where this average team would be with Andrew Luck at the helm.  We’ve been robbed of an epic Andrew Luck vs. Ryan Tannehill clash of the titans (no pun intended) for the AFC South this year and it’s a real shame.

Dallas gets a chance to prove their success against the Rams was a turning point of the season this Sunday when they can finally clinch a division title, a home playoff game, and a chance at a fourth straight season with at least nine wins.  This will be their chance to become the Team That Nobody Wants To See In The Playoffs™ of 2019.

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Heroes and Goats: Cowboys regain super powers in Week 15 domination of Rams

The Dallas Cowboys had some of their best performances of the season and dominated the Los Angeles Rams 44-21.

The Dallas Cowboys played their most complete game of the season, dominating the Los Angeles Rams 44-21 in Week 15. The game unfolded as many expected, a one-sided affair in the battle of good against Evil, only it was the Cowboys doing the butt whipping and running all over and around the Rams.

It was a narrative Cowboys fans have been breathlessly waiting weeks to see as the team executed in all three phases of the game, emerging out of the phone booth they shoved themselves into with super powers on full display. Dallas needed to get back on the winning track after three lackluster weeks sapped almost any belief this team had any ability to be special.

Here are some of the heroes and goats for the Cowboys in an outstanding win.

Heroes

Ezekiel Elliott: Running like a man possessed, Elliott was breaking tackles and exploding through holes for 117 yards and two scores. Those numbers were compiled in basically just three quarters or it could’ve been a monster day for Elliott. Still, he led the team in expected points, a rare feat for a bell-cow back. It feels as though Elliott is getting better and better as the season wears on.

Tony Pollard: The rookie RB had himself a day as well. Pollard played well when he was spelling Elliott in the first half and excelled when he was given the full load from late in the third quarter on. Rushing for a game-high 131 yards, it was Pollard’s second 100-yard game of the season and on his 44-yard touchdown run, the rookie showed great balance and acceleration.

The offensive line: The unit paved the way to a season-high 263 rushing yards and allowed two runners to eclipse 100 yards for the second time this season. They also didn’t allow a sack and kept QB Dak Prescott upright all game long.

The wily veterans: It’s been a popular opinion to bash some of the veterans on the Cowboys, but Jason Witten and Sean Lee both produced with stellar performances. Witten had a spectacular one-handed touchdown catch and caught three more balls for 36 yards. Most of Witten’s damage was done in the first half, before sitting most of the last 30 minutes out with the game in hand.

Lee didn’t practice all week, but his preparation in the film room definitely paid off. The savvy LB had an interception to set-up a touchdown that broke the will of the Rams near the end of the first half. Lee also added a sack, making it the first time in career that he’d had an interception and a sack in the same game. It was a vintage performance from the General.

Kai Forbath: It wasn’t the best start for the new Cowboys kicker, but Forbath did what the team needs, he made the kicks he’s supposed to make to put points on the scoreboard. Forbath made all of his extra points, nailed all three of his field goals, including a 50-yard kick and those pesky 40-something yard kicks that Brett Maher used to miss with regularity.

Goats

DeMarcus Lawrence, Dak Prescott and Walt Anderson: About the only thing that went wrong was the coin toss, which produced mass confusion. Prescott was convinced by Lawrence (who admitted it was his idea after the game) to defer when the Cowboys won the toss. Only Prescott slipped up that preference by saying Dallas wanted to kick, before remembering to say “defer.”

Referee Anderson bungled the whole exchange with Prescott and never acknowledged the Cowboys’ request to defer.

It was a strange beginning to the game and thank goodness the controversy ended when the league stepped in with the proper call. It was the only negative for the Cowboys in a game they embarrassed the Rams.

You can chat with or follow Ben on twitter @BenGrimaldi.

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5 To Watch: Jerry Jones and 4 on-field Cowboys to keep an eye on vs Rams

The game is on the field, but the focus will turn to Jerry Jones in short order if these other 4 names aren’t contributing to the win.

The Dallas Cowboys have been off of playing football for 10 days, and on the heels of a third-consecutive loss, the outlook for the season couldn’t be further away from where it was to begin things in early September. There is little hope emanating from the fan base, and what is originating from within the organization seems faked and a facade as the club is biding their time before cleaning house on the coaching staff.

Cowboys owner Jerry Jones determined a few weeks back that changing coaching staffs midseason was not going to be the best chance to salvage things. Now, what he says publicly to help boost merchandise sales and reap the benefits of free advertising from every sound bite, and what he believes internally can be two totally separate things.

Jones continues to allow questions about his pending head coaching search to fan the flames around the vacancy, despite refusing to put head coach Jason Garrett out of his misery. With no remorse, Jones implores that there’s no one he wants more to succeed than Garrett while simultaneously pouring gasoline on the conversation about who will replace him whenever the Cowboys season ends. He simultaneously says the words that he knows the failures of the franchise reside on his doorstep while definately refusing to admit that his brand of management – which serves him so well in business – preclude the on-field product from finding continued success.

If the Cowboys cannot emerge from their stupor on Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams, Jones will face another media scrum post-game, another round of radio interviews starting Tuesday and will emerge unscathed yet again, because that’s how this Jerry-go-round works.

While all eyes will be focused on Jones during those Fox cutaways during the action, there will be some lesser-known names on the field worth paying attention to. If Dallas has any hope of pulling off an upset against the team which they squared up against in last year’s playoffs, here’s some unfamiliar names who may end up starring.

Kai Forbath, kicker

The long nightmare is over, and about six months too late the Dallas Cowboys have finally walked away from the kicking disaster known as Brett Maher.  After missing seven kicks in 2018, the Cowboys stuck with him despite missing 10 kicks through 13 games, the most in the last four years across the league.

Finally they brought in another option in Forbath, a journeyman who has played in just one game this season. He does have a 88% accuracy mark on field goals over the last several years, though his extra points have been shaky, including a miss that got him released in New England after just one game earlier this year.

The move is more so symbolic. It exemplified the coaching staff’s refusal to try something different, to believe that their original plan is always the best plan and failing to try something new despite all the evidence what they have done is not working. Whether Forbath is the answer or not isn’t really that important now. The damage of sticking to their guns has already infiltrated the aura of the team.

Luke Gifford, linebacker

It seems like Sean Lee is going to give it a go despite missing all week with pectoral and thigh issues, but fans shouldn’t be surprised if this rookie linebacker gets a handful of defensive snaps in the game.

Dallas needs a spark, as their backer play has been mediocre all year after being touted as a strength of the defense. Leighton Vander Esch is out, Jaylon Smith is not playing up to par and Lee looks his age. Joe Thomas will be the third linebacker, but the UDFA out of Nebraska was very impressive in training camp and preseason and should get a chance to show what he can do.

Tony Pollard, running back

Pollard was missed in the game against Chicago as his injury and ailments to both backs on the practice squad left the rarely utilized Jamize Olawale in the position to be featured and he came up wanting.

Ezekiel Elliott’s handcuff should see a ton of action against the Rams as the Cowboys offense looks to emerge from their doldrums that have infected their possessions over the last couple weeks. Pollard is a weapon in his shiftiness and tackle-breaking ability with excellent balance and needs to be part of both the passing and running game for the Cowboys.

Blake Jarwin, tight end

Free Blake Jarwin.

No, he hasn’t been wrongfully arrested by the law, but the powers-that-be are certainly handcuffing the superior passing-game weapon in Dallas. Jason Witten has had a remarkable career, he’s still the best blocking tight end on the team, but the insistence to allow him to be the primary focus down the seams is maddening.

Jarwin can actually produce yards after the catch and still has on-purpose big-play ability that Witten hasn’t sniffed in half a decade.

The coaching staff’s inability to devise more plays that feature him tells the tale of their season.

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Lee’s potential absence from Cowboys-Rams undercuts return for 2 others

Tony Pollard, Jeff Heath returns to practice while Sean Lee misses practice for the second consecutive day.

The Dallas Cowboys have just three games remaining in their 2019 campaign, and with a chance to make the playoffs contingent on winning the NFC East, all hands must be on deck if they are able.

The outcome of Sunday’s contest against the Los Angeles Rams affects their playoff changes by about 20 percent, per ESPN FPI.   There is no time to wait, yet Dallas is looking like their linebackers corps may be even more depleted than first thought.

Sean Lee who is filling in for injured starter Leighton Vander Esch still has not participated in practice this week as he deals with a pectoral issue, so it remains to be seen if he will play against the Rams.   Vander Esch is definitely out for this game, and it’s a question whether he suits up again this season.

If Lee is unable to suit up, rookie linebacker Luke Gifford will be called into major action for the first time this season as the third in the rotation behind Jaylon Smith and Joe Thomas.

The Cowboys had six other players who were limited participants on Thursday:

  • DL Michael Bennett (foot)
  • RG La’el Collins (knee)
  • CB Byron Jones (hip)
  • P Chris Jones (adbomen)
  • DT Antwaun Woods (knee)

There were however two welcome changes to the injury front as safety Jeff Heath and backup running back Tony Pollard were upgraded to full participants in Thursday’s practice.

Heath has been dealing with a shoulder injury that he suffered against the Patriots back in Week 12 and Pollard suffered an ankle injury and did not play against the Bears.

The Rams are relatively healthy compared to the Cowboys, with only starting tight end Gerald Everett not participating as he deals with a knee issue. Relatively is the key word, as the offensive line has dealt with a major reshuffling this season already.

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