Tag: Tigers Red Sox odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Detroit Tigers (28-30) and Boston Red Sox (30-29) meet Sunday as they wrap up a 4-game series at Fenway Park. First pitch is set for 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Tigers vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Red Sox lead 2-1

Detroit took the 1st game of this series (5-0), but has dropped the last 2 games (7-3 and 6-3). Since May 19, the Tigers are 1-6 with a -20 run differential away from the Motor City.

The Boston offense had been slumping of late until Friday. From May 24-30, the Sox logged a .594 OPS. Over Friday and Saturday’s games, Boston banged out a combined 10 extra base hits while scoring 13 runs.

Tigers at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Casey Mize vs. RHP Brayan Bello

Mize (1-3, 4.71 ERA) is making his 11th start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 49 2/3 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 0 K in 14-11 win vs. Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday
  • Career vs. Red Sox: 0-1, 4.09 ERA (11 IP, 5 ER), 10 H, 5 BB, 6 K in 2 starts

Bello (6-2, 4.18 ERA) is making his 10th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 47 1/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Win, 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 8-3 win at Baltimore Orioles Tuesday
  • Career vs. Tigers: 0-1, 7.71 ERA (4 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 9 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 1 start

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Tigers at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:51 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Tigers +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Red Sox -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers +1.5 (-160) | Red Sox -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Tigers at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 4, Tigers 3

Moneyline

Boston is 12-2 over its last 14 games against Detroit. In Fenway games, the Red Sox have taken 10 of their last 12 against the Tigers.

Bello has clocked a Fenway ERA (3.80) more-than-a-run lower than his road mark (4.83) over his 3-year career. The BoSox hurler excels in inducing ground balls (54% ground-ball rate for the season, 60% over his last 3 starts), and Detroit struggles against ground-ball types (.617 OPS).

The Tigers are 1-7 over their last 8 series finales.

FanDuel Sportsbook has the better leverage price here: BET BOSTON (-138).

Run line/Against the spread

The relative value on the Red Sox is better on the ML. PASS.

Over/Under

Thirteen of Boston’s last 17 home games have hit the Under. Five of the last 7 Tigers-Red Sox games have done likewise.

Both starting pitchers have better expected ERA figures than surface ERAs. And for the most part, the expected-vs.-actual runs for and against on each side would indicate lower scoring days ahead.

Peg the UNDER 9 (-105) as being worthy of a partial-unit play.

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Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Detroit Tigers (28-28) and Boston Red Sox (28-29) meet Friday as they continue a 4-game series at Fenway Park. First pitch is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET (Apple TV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Tigers vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Detroit leads 1-0

Detroit logged its 2nd shutout win in as many days Thursday when it blanked Boston 5-0 in the series opener. The Tigers are 5-1 across their last 6 games.

The Red Sox have been outscored 11-1 while losing back-to-back games. They are 2-5 over their last 7 games, and Boston pitching has been saddled with a 5.75 ERA over that stretch.

Tigers at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Kenta Maeda vs. RHP Tanner Houck

Maeda (2-1, 5.80 ERA) is making his 9th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 35 2/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 6-2 win vs. Toronto Blue Jays Friday
  • Career vs. Red Sox: 0-3, 4.50 ERA (12 IP, 6 ER), 12 H, 4 BB, 12 K in 3 starts

Houck (4-5, 1.90 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 0.99 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 71 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 2-1 win vs. Milwaukee Brewers Sunday
  • Career vs. Tigers: 1-0, 3.00 ERA (6 IP, 2 ER), 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 1 start

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Tigers at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:16 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Tigers +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Red Sox -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers +1.5 (-150) | Red Sox -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -125 | U: -105)

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Tigers at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 4, Tigers 3

Moneyline

The Red Sox have gone a robust 10-2 over their last dozen games against the Tigers. Boston has underplayed its run profile of 4.28 runs per game for and 3.95 against. Peg the Sox as being a bit undervalued.

Maeda has not been in good form of late, and Houck gives Boston a green check mark here. And he’s backed by the better bullpen.

BACK BOSTON (-160).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS: Better relative value lives on the ML here.

Over/Under

The Under has hit in 5 straight Detroit-Boston games and in 6 of the last 7 series games played at Fenway.

There is some Under pressure coming from the Detroit side of this matchup. Peg some pushback from this mound matchup (not that Houck isn’t solid, just that he’s likely overrated by his surface ERA).

Consider a partial-unit play on the UNDER 8.5 (-110). That tag is available on FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Detroit Tigers (27-28) and Boston Red Sox (28-28) meet Thursday as they open a 4-game series at Fenway Park. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Tigers vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting of 2024; Boston took last year’s series 5-1

Detroit is on the road after a 4-2 home stand. The Tigers are looking to snap a 4-game losing streak on the road; they are just 3-10 away from home since April 24.

The Red Sox are back at Fenway after an abbreviated 3-game road trip. Boston went 1-2 in a series at the Baltimore Orioles. In their 2 losses (Monday and Wednesday), the Crimson Hose went a combined 1-for-18 with runners in scoring position.

Tigers at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Jack Flaherty vs. RHP Nick Pivetta

Flaherty (1-4, 3.84 ERA) is lined up for his 11th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 12.0 K/9 in 61 IP.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 9-1 loss vs. Toronto Blue Jays Thursday
  • Career vs. Red Sox: 0-0, 10.38 ERA (4 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 10 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 1 start and 1 relief appearance in 2023

Pivetta (2-3, 4.20 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 30 IP.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 6-3 loss vs. Milwaukee Brewers Saturday
  • Career vs. Tigers: 1-0, 3.12 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 6 H, 3 BB, 13 K in 1 start and 1 relief appearance — hasn’t faced them since 2021

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Tigers at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Tigers +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Red Sox -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers +1.5 (-225) | Red Sox -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Tigers at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 4, Tigers 3

Moneyline

Boston is 10-1 across its last 11 games against Detroit.

The Red Sox have underplayed a run-scoring profile of 4.36 for and 3.93 against. And their analytics point to an even better spread in those figures.

Flaherty makes this start on 6 days of rest. That long interval has not often agreed with him.

The BoSox had a plus-17 in run differential in last year’s series.

FanDuel Sportsbook has a better offering here: TAKE THE RED SOX (-116).

Run line/Against the spread

Boston is a would-be lean. Juice floods out any profit potential, though. PASS.

Over/Under

The Under has cashed in 4 straight series meetings and is 12-2 across Boston’s last 14 games at home.

Both starters have better expected-ERA figures than what their surface numbers show. They likely get the benefit of an inward-blowing breeze in this series opener.

A drop in this number has taken away some Under leverage, though. Figure a slight lean on the UNDER 7 (+100).

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Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Detroit Tigers (26-42) face the Boston Red Sox (38-31) Wednesday in the finale of a 3-game set at Fenway Park. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Tigers vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Boston leads 4-1.

The Tigers have lost 8 of 10, including the last 2 to Boston by scores of 5-4 and 5-2. They have fought hard against Boston, only losing by more than 2 runs once in the 5 games they’ve played.

After a slow start, the Red Sox are rolling. They’re 21-9 in the last 30 games and have thrust themselves into the wild card picture. SS Xander Bogaerts (.335), DH J.D. Martinez (.330) and 3B Rafael Devers (.328) are 3rd-5th in the race for the AL batting title. The Red Sox are also 7th in Runs/9 allowed in baseball.

Tigers at Red Sox projected starters

LHP Tarik Skubal vs. RHP Michael Wacha

Skubal (5-4, 3.13 ERA) makes his 14th start of the season. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 74 2/3 innings.

  • Has been lit up for a 6.75 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
  • Has 1 career start against Boston, in 2021. Got the win Aug. 5 with 5 IP, 0 R, 5 H, 1 BB and 4 K in Tigers’ 8-1 victory.

Wacha (5-1, 2.28 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and a 6.2 K/9 in 59 1/3 IP.

  • Has a 1.85 ERA in his last 4 starts.
  • Allowed 1 ER on 2 H, 3 BB and 4 K’s in 4 1/3 IP in a no-decision against the Tigers April 11.
  • Current Tigers hitters have hit .226 with a .285 weighted on-base average in 73 plate appearances against him.

Tigers at Red Sox odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:39 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Tigers +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Red Sox -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers +1.5 (-190) | Red Sox -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Tigers at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Tigers 3

Money line

It’s 64 degrees with the wind blowing in at 11 mph at Fenway, which should favor the pitchers. Wacha has been living dangerously with a 93-mph fastball and low swing-and-miss rates, but he’s getting the job done. He’s 2-1 with a 1.03 ERA at Fenway this year. The books aren’t believers, but we have every reason to take RED SOX (-135) for a FULL UNIT.

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Run line/Against the spread

The Red Sox’s bullpen is pretty average with a 3.85 ERA, but it’s in good shape as far as rest goes. The Red Sox have won 7 of 10, and 5 of them have been by 2 or more runs. With Skubal scuffling, and the Tigers last with 2.96 Runs/9, we’ll LEAN RED SOX -1.5 (+155).

Over/Under

The Under is 4-0 in Skubal’s last 4 starts as an underdog and Detroit’s last 4 against teams with a winning record. The Under is 4-0 in Boston’s last 4 against a LHP.  The Under is 7-1 in the last 8 between these teams. With the chilly wind blowing in and these Under trends, we’ll LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-125).

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Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Detroit Tigers (26-40) head to Fenway Park Monday to start a 3-game series with the Boston Red Sox (36-31) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Tigers vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Detroit is 7-3 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games. The Tigers won back-to-back weekend games vs. the Texas Rangers to win their 3-game set.

Boston is 6-4 SU in the last 10, including 3 consecutive 2-1 series victories vs. the Seattle Mariners, Oakland Athletics and St. Louis Cardinals.

The Red Sox lead the season series against the Tigers 2-1 with a plus-2 run differential in those meetings.

Tigers at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Alex Faedo vs. RHP Josh Winckowski 

Faedo is 1-3 with a 4.28 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 40 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: Lost 13-0 Wednesday at home vs. the Chicago White Sox with 3 IP, 7 ER, 9 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 5 K.
  • This is the rookie’s 1st start vs. Boston.

Winckowski is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA (8 IP, 4 ER), 10 H, 1 HR, 4 BB and 7 K in 2 starts vs. the Toronto Blue Jays and A’s.

  • 2022 minor league stats: 2-2 with a 3.38 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 9 starts for Boston’s Triple-A affiliate.

Tigers at Red Sox odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:07 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Tigers +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Red Sox -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers +1.5 (-130) | Red Sox -1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Tigers at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Tigers 4, Red Sox 3

Money line

LEAN TIGERS (+155) because they have a slight edge in the pitching matchup, there’s a line freeze in the betting market and this isn’t a profitable spot for the Red Sox (-190). Detroit’s RL has better value but the Tigers  cannot hit right-handed pitching.

The starting pitching matchup is a toss-up but Detroit’s bullpen is 5th in both FIP (3.34) and WAR (3.0) while Boston is 16th in FIP (3.93) and 18th in WAR (1.0), according to FanGraphs.

Also, nearly 90% of the cash is on the Red Sox but the line hasn’t budged off the opener, per Pregame.com. This line freeze suggests that oddsmakers are confident in their pricing and are inviting more pro-Tigers action.

Finally, Boston is just 5-6 SU as home favorites of -150 or greater vs. right-handed starters with a minus-26.0% return on investment (ROI).

It’s only a LEAN to the TIGERS (+155) since their RL is going for a cheap price.

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Run line/Against the spread

BET a third of a unit on the TIGERS +1.5 (-130) based on the previous analysis and the Red Sox -1.5 (+105) are 4-7 RL in the situation described above with a minus-24.1% ROI.

That said, I’d go light on the TIGERS +1.5 (-130), if at all, since they are in the midst of another disappointing year and their lineup ranks last in BB/K rate, wOBA and wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching, per FanGraphs. Also, the Under 9.5 (-120) is my favorite wager in this game.

Over/Under

BET a half-unit on the UNDER 9.5 (-120) only because we are getting to the party late on the total. Tigers-Red Sox opened at a 10-run total but has been lowered to the current price.

However, Detroit’s lineup scores just 2.7 runs per 9 vs. right-handed starters and the Tigers are 16-29-2 O/U against righty starters with a plus-22.3% ROI toward the Under.

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Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Detroit Tigers (9-22) vs. Boston Red Sox (18-13) match up Thursday at 1:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Tigers vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Spencer Turnbull is the projected starting pitcher for the Tigers. He is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over 16 IP through 3 starts.

Turnbull got a late start to the season after landing on the COVID-19 list. He performed well in his first two starts, but then served up 4 earned runs in 5 innings against the New York Yankees, with just 1 strikeout and 2 swinging strikes across 94 pitches.

RHP Nathan Eovaldi is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. He is 4-2 with a 3.63 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 34 2/3 IP over 6 starts.

Eovaldi’s success from last season has carried over, as his swinging strike rate is right in line with last year’s career-best mark. He is also limiting walks again and has yet to allow a home run.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Tigers at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Tigers +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Red Sox -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Tigers +1.5 (-110) | Red Sox -1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Tigers 2

Money line (ML)

The Tigers are just 5-13 on the road and have by far the worst run differential in the league at minus-65. Meanwhile, the Red Sox sit atop the American League East and boast the league’s 5th best run differential (plus-23).

Even so, while the Red Sox are likely to win this game, the price is too high to invest much on it. It’s probably best to PASS on the money line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Turnbull has shown some respectable skills in the early going, but Eovaldi has been even better. The Red Sox are averaging a full two more runs per game than the Tigers (4.97 to 2.97), who rank dead last in the majors in the category.

Look for the RED SOX -1.5 (-110) to cash with a win by 2 or more runs Thursday afternoon.

Over/Under (O/U)

Eovaldi has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in four of his six starts. In this game, he gets a great matchup against a Detroit offense that has struggled to get anything going offensively.

On the other side, the Red Sox have put up more than 6 runs just once in their last 14 tries, and Turnbull should be able to avoid disaster and keep it fairly close. A small play on UNDER 8.5 (-110) looks like the way to go.

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Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Detroit Tigers (8-22) take on the Boston Red Sox (18-12) in the middle tilt of their three-game set at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Tigers vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Boston jumped out to an early 7-2 lead after the second inning and held on to beat Detroit 11-7 Tuesday. All in all, it was a solid team effort for the BoSox who had 4 home runs as a team.

Season Series: Red Sox lead 1-0.

RHP Casey Mize is on the mound for the Tigers. He is 1-3 with a 5.06 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 over 5 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss in 6 IP with 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 6 K in Detroit’s 3-1 loss to the Chicago White Sox Thursday.

LHP Martín Pérez gets the start for the Red Sox. He is 0-2 with a 4.70 ERA (23 IP, 12 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 across 5 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss in 5 2/3 IP with 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 7 K in Boston’s 4-1 loss at the Texas Rangers Thursday.
  • Career vs. Tigers: 2-4 with a 6.81 ERA (37 IP, 28 ER), 1.54 WHIP and 8.3 K/9 over 7 starts and 1 relief appearance.
    • vs. Tigers on the current roster: 63 at-bats with a .333/.427/.508 slash line and 2 HR.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Tigers at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:25 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Tigers +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Red Sox -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Tigers +1.5 (-130) | Red Sox -1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Tigers 5, Red Sox 3

Money line (ML)

Detroit is impossibly bad vs. left-handed pitching this season. The Tigers are dead-last in wRC+, wOBA, OPS and home run to fly-ball rate. They are last by a wide margin in each of these categories.

In fact, Detroit almost cannot hit worse against lefties so it’s due for some progression toward the mean. Pérez being on the hill could be the perfect slump buster as this Tigers lineup has raked against Pérez when they’ve faced him.

Mize has been inconsistent so far this season but he was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 MLB Amateur Draft and has electric stuff.

“LEAN” to the TIGERS (+150) for a half unit only because there’s better value with Detroit’s run line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the TIGERS +1.5 (-130) for three-fourths of a unit for some insurance on our Detroit money line pick.

Detroit’s bullpen is awful and Boston’s is top-10 in several advanced pitching categories. I wouldn’t put it past the Tigers relievers to blow away a strong outing from Mize

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 9 (-105) for a quarter unit because of Detroit’s aforementioned troubles vs. lefties and Boston’s reliable ‘pen.

These teams also have a combined 2-7 O/U record with Wednesday’s two starters on the mound.

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