The Detroit Tigers (9-22) vs. Boston Red Sox (18-13) match up Thursday at 1:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Tigers vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Spencer Turnbull is the projected starting pitcher for the Tigers. He is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over 16 IP through 3 starts.
Turnbull got a late start to the season after landing on the COVID-19 list. He performed well in his first two starts, but then served up 4 earned runs in 5 innings against the New York Yankees, with just 1 strikeout and 2 swinging strikes across 94 pitches.
RHP Nathan Eovaldi is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. He is 4-2 with a 3.63 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 34 2/3 IP over 6 starts.
Eovaldi’s success from last season has carried over, as his swinging strike rate is right in line with last year’s career-best mark. He is also limiting walks again and has yet to allow a home run.
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Tigers at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Tigers +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Red Sox -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Tigers +1.5 (-110) | Red Sox -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Red Sox 5, Tigers 2
Money line (ML)
The Tigers are just 5-13 on the road and have by far the worst run differential in the league at minus-65. Meanwhile, the Red Sox sit atop the American League East and boast the league’s 5th best run differential (plus-23).
Even so, while the Red Sox are likely to win this game, the price is too high to invest much on it. It’s probably best to PASS on the money line.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Turnbull has shown some respectable skills in the early going, but Eovaldi has been even better. The Red Sox are averaging a full two more runs per game than the Tigers (4.97 to 2.97), who rank dead last in the majors in the category.
Look for the RED SOX -1.5 (-110) to cash with a win by 2 or more runs Thursday afternoon.
Over/Under (O/U)
Eovaldi has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in four of his six starts. In this game, he gets a great matchup against a Detroit offense that has struggled to get anything going offensively.
On the other side, the Red Sox have put up more than 6 runs just once in their last 14 tries, and Turnbull should be able to avoid disaster and keep it fairly close. A small play on UNDER 8.5 (-110) looks like the way to go.
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