The Buffalo Bills will play the Kansas City Chiefs at home at Highmark Stadium in Week 11.
The Bills (8-2) are looking to build on a five-game win streak, while the Chiefs (9-0) haven’t lost since Christmas Day in 2023.
Buffalo is favored to win by 2.5 points in this one. In the Patrick Mahomes-Josh Allen era, the Chiefs hold the advantage over the Bills, winning four of the seven meetings. However, Buffalo is 3-1 in the regular season against KC.
Even though the Bills are favored, the Chiefs are undefeated for a reason.
The Bills will need to execute their game plan to pick up their ninth win of the year.
With that, here are three keys to a Bills win in Week 11:
Make stops on third down
The Chiefs have the NFL’s best third-down offense. They convert on third downs 52% of the time. They can stay on the field longer because they convert on the most crucial down more than anyone. Kansas City leads the league in time of possession.
Although the Chiefs offense isn’t as explosive as they have been in past years (11th in points per game), they don’t have to be. Kansas City keeps the opposing team’s offense off the field and limit points from the opposition. If the Bills defense could get off the field on some crucial third downs, it would improve their chances greatly.
Make drives count
Because the Chiefs dominate time of possession, their defense has seen only 87 drives so far this year, which is the least in the NFL. That means, on average, opposing teams only get about 9.5 drives per game. If you are Buffalo, you need to make those possessions count.
The more drives that end in a touchdown for the Bills, the more difficult it will be for the Chiefs to play their 2024 brand of football. Every possession in the NFL is something to be cherished, but against a team like the Chiefs, you must take advantage of opportunities when you get them. They don’t come around often for Kansas City’s opponents this year.
Get pressure on Mahomes
The Chiefs have had difficulty at their left tackle position this year. Rookie Kingsley Suamataia got the nod to start the year but was replaced by Wanya Morris in Week 3 due to performance. Morris, although more consistent than Suamataia, still struggles at times. He has received a 56.4 offense grade this year according to Pro Football Focus, which ranks 62nd in the NFL among tackles.
Bills edge rushers, Greg Rousseau in particular, should be in line for opportunities to get after Mahomes in Week 11.
The Chiefs have allowed four sacks in each of their last two games, and the Bills defense is coming off of a four-sack outing against the Indianapolis Colts.
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