The Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-1, 0-1 SEC) welcome the 17th-ranked Texas A&M Aggies (3-1, 1-0) to Davis Wade Stadium Saturday. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Bulldogs are led by coach Mike Leach who has coached over 250 games at major programs. His team this season is led by QB Will Rogers, who has 16 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
Rogers was instrumental in beating Kentucky, Auburn and Texas A&M – all ranked at the time – last season. This year, Miss. State has beaten Arizona, Memphis and Bowling Green with its lone loss to LSU on the road.
As for A&M, it suffered one of the season’s biggest upsets, falling at home to Appalachian State 17-14. That led to the benching of QB Haynes King in favor of now-starting QB Max Johnson, who has captained 2 impressive victories – 17-9 over then-No. 13 Miami and 23-21 vs. then-No. 10 Arkansas last Saturday.
This will be Texas A&M’s first real road game. RB Devon Achane is a weapon to become familiar with. The junior has 355 rushing yards in 4 games, including 159 with a TD in the Arkansas squeaker.
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports
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Texas A&M at Mississippi State odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:42 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Texas A&M +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Mississippi State -205 (bet $205 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Texas A&M +4.5 (-115) | Mississippi State -4.5 (-107)
- Over/Under (O/U): 46.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Texas A&M at Mississippi State picks and predictions
Prediction
Mississippi State 24, Texas A&M 17
Moneyline
PASS.
I like Mississippi State enough to lay the points, but I wouldn’t play its ML value at -205. There’s just too much juice against a good A&M side that has consistently played well defensively.
Against the spread
BET MISSISSIPPI STATE -4.5 (-107).
The handicap for this matchup is simple – it is easier to get behind the Bulldogs offense than it is the Aggies offense. Rogers was a stud last season, throwing for 4,739 yards.
He had 36 TD passes in 13 games last season, and he has 16 through 4 games so far this season. The Aggies’ Johnson likely won’t be able to keep pace – against the Hurricanes and Razorbacks, it was the defense that helped keep the game close.
The Aggies lost both their starting QB and RB back from last season, and that has been brutal for their offense, which is averaging just 21.3 points per game (PPG).
The Bulldogs have a good offense and a good defense, which compares favorably to the Aggies, who have a bad offense and good defense. Also, 5 of Mississippi State’s 7 wins last season would have covered a -4.5-point line.
I’ll trust the more proven quarterback in this one.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 46.5 (-112).
Again, the Aggies defense is where A&M thrives, so I would be shocked to see this game be high scoring.
Texas A&M’s defense allows just 11.8 PPG, the 9th-best in the nation.
Mississippi State allows 21.3 PPG. It has given up fewer than 24 points in 3 of 4 games this season, and the Aggies don’t have an attack that’ll make many deep threats in this game, either.
Ultimately, the play is UNDER 46.5 (-112).
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