Texans enter 2024 season with seventh-hardest schedule

The Houston Texans enter the season with one of the toughest schedules in the league, and one of the rockiest paths back to the postseason.

Life as a reigning division champion is tough, as is evident by the Houston Texans’ impending 2024 schedule

After a surprising run to the AFC Divisional Round, the Texans added to their roster, hoping to elevate into Super Bowl contention. With star quarterback C.J. Stroud entering year two of his rookie contract, Houston took big swings, acquiring Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs in trades, and signing Danielle Hunter and Azeez Al-Shaair during free agency.

If the Texans hope to return to the postseason, they must overcome a rigorous schedule that includes seven playoff teams from a year ago. Three of the franchises made it to the conference championship game, including reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City. 

With the release of the 2024 schedule and projected win totals, Sharp Football Analysis revealed its strength of schedule model.

Houston enters the year with the league’s seventh-hardest schedule, with an implied win total of 9.8 games, which would be higher than Las Vegas’ total of 9.5. 

The national media seems eager to see how Houston handles the challenge, placing them in four primetime games and six nationally televised contests. Before 2024, the Texans played standalone games in three seasons combined. 

Sharp Football’s prediction from a year ago proved fairly accurate. The top 16 predicted easiest schedules from 2023 resulted in 11 teams — including the Texans —posting a winning record. 

Houston repeating as AFC South champions may be more challenging than returning to the playoffs. Houston’s Week 1 opponent Indianapolis has the seventh-easiest predicted schedule.

Jacksonville currently owns the14th-easiest schedule. As for Tennessee under first-year coach Brian Callahan, things become daunting with the sixth-hardest schedule. 

This season, the AFC South plays each opponent from the NFC North and AFC East, inluding No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams. After starting 3-8, the Bears went 4-2 in the final six games.

Coupled with a potential quarterback upgrade, plus the additon of Pro Bowl receiver Keenan Allen and top-10 pick Rome Odunze, the Bears may be on the rise. 

 

Changes came to the AFC East this offseason following the departure of Bill Belichick in New England after two-plus decades. Former Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo took over but it’s likely a retooling year with a rookie quarterback.

On top of matchups with the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills, Houston a plays Baltimore and Kansas City outside the divisional alignments. 

The combined winning percentage of those three a year ago was 70.5%. Houston’s scheduled opponents won 53% of their games last season. 

How Packers, Giants losses can result in Texans playing on ‘Monday Night Football’

Houston Texans fans would need the Green Bay Packers and New York Giants to start losing for a prime-time window to open up.

Who would have thought the Houston Texans would be worthy of a prime-time game?

The NFL makes sure to think of everything when it comes to broadcasting their games, which is why the broadcasters and the league have the ability to flex out of games and protect others.

The Texans have become a hot ticket and worthy of having a game flexed. The problem is some of the other prime-time matchups are still compelling enough to keep in their original slots.

Logistics are also problematic, especially when it comes to an actual game day such as Thursday or Monday. However, there may be a shot for the Texans to take advantage of such a case.

Houston is slated to play the New York Jets in Week 14 at MetLife Stadium for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff. The Green Bay Packers and New York Giants play each other at the same venue the following night.

“There’s still to be a conversation about, ‘Should we flip the Giants and Jets games on Monday night in Week 14,'” Mike North, the NFL’s VP of broadcast planning, said on SI Media Podcast via CBS Sports’ Jordan Breech. “That decision is still to be made.”

Per league rules, Nov. 29 is the deadline for the game to be flexed. The Giants and Packers would need to lose over the Thanksgiving weekend in devastating fashion for the NFL to consider the move.

The Packers visit the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving, while the Giants host the New England Patriots early Sunday afternoon.

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Texans vs. Broncos Week 13 flexed to early game kickoff

The Houston Texans’ Week 13 game with the Denver Broncos has been flexed to 12:00 p.m. Central Time.

The Houston Texans will be able to catch the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers Week 13 showdown after all.

The NFL announced Tuesday the Denver Broncos’ trip to Houston will be flexed from a 3:05 p.m. Central Time kickoff to 12:00 p.m. The league is instead moving the Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the 3:05 window.

The flex wasn’t what Houston fans hoped for. Pigeoning the Texans into the early game window gives the club their first ever season playing in one kickoff window. Even the Dom Capers teams would catch a late afternoon start if facing Peyton Manning or a West Coast team.

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Texans will have 10th-shortest travel miles in 2023

The Houston Texans will travel 15,248 miles in 2023, the 10th-shortest total miles traveled in the NFL.

The Houston Texans have another advantage on their 2023 schedule.

Already ranked No. 30 in the NFL in terms of strength of schedule, the Texans are also 10th in the NFL in terms of shortest distance traveled.

According to Bookies.com, the Texans will travel 15,248 miles, which is the 10th-lowest in the NFL. Among the AFC South, Houston’s mileage is the lowest in the division. The Indianapolis Colts aren’t too far behind at No. 11 with 16,403, the Jacksonville Jaguars No. 13 with 16,854, and the Tennessee Titans No. 14 with 17,022.

The Cincinnati Bengals have the fewest miles traveled with 11,942, which is the result of being in a tightly-knit AFC North. The Seattle Seahawks, situated in the Pacific Northwest, have the most travel miles with 31,600.

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Texans’ 2023 schedule presents opportunity for turnaround

The Houston Texans’ 2023 schedule is laid out to where the team should be able to take advantage and kickstart a turnaround.

The Houston Texans have the 30th-hardest schedule in the NFL according to the conventional strength of schedule metric. However, there is another perspective that shows just how favorable the Texans’ schedule is in 2023.

According to Gordon McGuinness from Pro Football Focus, the AFC South is the seventh-toughest division in the NFL. That sounds convincing until one realizes the league is comprised of eight divisions. Part of the reason the AFC South is near the bottom is due to the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans being in rebuild mode like the Texans.

The other South teams appear to be looking more to the future, with three quarterbacks selected in the top 33 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft in C.J. Stroud for the Houston TexansAnthony Richardson for the Indianapolis Colts and Will Levis for the Tennessee Titans. Of those three, the Titans will feel the closest to contending for a playoff spot in 2023. But the reality for all three teams is that a successful season would be learning what they have in their young signal-callers.

The Texans could have a successful season by McGuinness’ terms of evaluating Stroud, but also a successful season in the standings.

In addition to the AFC South, the Texans also play the NFC South this season, and that division was ranked worse than Houston’s division. While the Texans are facing what is considered the toughest division in football in the AFC North, that is counterbalanced by being last in the AFC South, and thus Houston has three same place finisher games with teams that came in last in the NFC West (Arizona Cardinals), AFC East (New York Jets), and AFC West (Denver Broncos).

Whether due to strength of schedule or public perception, the Texans couldn’t have asked for a better schedule to kickstart a turnaround.

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Texans’ season could be defined by a 5-game stretch

The Houston Texans’ first season with DeMeco Ryans may be defined by a particular five-game stretch late in the year.

Even though fans and media have an idea of what new coach DeMeco Ryans brings, there is a bit of mystery as to what the 2023 Houston Texans will look like.

Between an aggressive defensive scheme and a rookie quarterback, there is an expectation for growing pains yet triumphs. How long the fluctuation lasts until stability forms will be the question throughout the season.

There is a five-game stretch on the Texans’ schedule that could define their season.

Weeks 12-16 offer the best insight as to who the Texans actually are under Ryans. Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells said you know what type of team you have by Thanksgiving, which is Week 12 in 2023.

Here is the five-game stretch that could tell the tale of the Texans.

Pro Football Focus projects Texans’ 2023 schedule as sixth-easiest

The Houston Texans have the sixth-easiest strength of schedule according to Pro Football Focus.

The Houston Texans have an easy strength of schedule using conventional methods to determine the value. However, more advanced metrics give a better insight as to how less strenuous Houston’s path will be in 2023.

According to Amelia Probst from Pro Football Focus, who used PFF’s ELO to look at each team’s record from a year ago, respective opponents’ records, home and away games along with roster changes and injuries, the Texans remained in the top-10 among easiest schedules.

Conventional methods have the Texans with the third-easiest schedule. PFF has the Texans with the sixth-easiest schedule in the league.

Playing the conference runner-up is never an easy task, but besides that contest — which comes in Week 10 — the schedule should give Houston the opportunity to improve on their standing last year.

The easiest game for Houston comes in Week 15 against the Tennessee Titans. The hardest game is Week 10 with the Cincinnati Bengals. Both games will be on the road.

Houston was also given a projected win total of 5.8. Even rounding up, it means the Texans would endure another double-digit loss campaign with a 6-11 record. However, the composition of such a record could still engender optimism about the direction of the franchise. If Houston were simply not closing the deal in the clutch and losing one-score games, it would have a different feel than if the Texans were getting blown out every week.

Across the rest of the AFC South, the Indianapolis Colts have the third-easiest schedule and the Titans fall immediately in line at No. 4. The reigning division champion Jacksonville Jaguars have the 13th-easiest schedule, ranking second-easiest among division winners.

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Why the Texans being pigeonholed in early game window is a benefit

The Houston Texans may have had a blessing in disguise by not having any prime time games in 2023.

The Houston Texans don’t have any prime time games on the 2023 schedule.

For the first time since 2006, and the third time in franchise history, the Texans will not be playing a game with a kickoff time after 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

In fact, all but one of the Texans’ 16 games has a kickoff time other than 1:00 p.m. Eastern. Other than the TV network being either CBS or FOX, Houston sports fans will have the most predictable NFL Sundays this fall.

Former St. Louis Rams coach Mike Martz told the 33rd Team he used to dread looking at the schedule because of the short weeks due to prime time games, particularly Monday Night Football. By the time Martz was an offensive coordinator with the Chicago Bears from 2010-11, Thursday Night Football was becoming more prevalent.

The other thing I never liked to see was traveling on a short week. Those are the things that would really bother me. You’d play a game on Sunday and then have to play a Thursday night game across the country, that’s hard on everybody.

With the NFL not giving all 32 teams a Thursday night game this season, it gives the Texans a chance to build a steady workflow throughout the week.

New coach DeMeco Ryans wouldn’t take the cheese and say the team was using it as extra motivation.

“For me, it’s not about showing the NFL anything,” Ryans said at rookie minicamp May 12. “It’s about us as a team just going out, working, and when you humble yourself and you work, you put your head down and work, you’re deserving of those things, then they’ll come to you. So that’s what it does for me, the internal motivation as opposed to external.”

As a coach, Ryans has to appreciate the fact the team won’t be balancing hectic travel schedules as they play in an assortment of prime time affairs. There are no short weeks or long layoffs. Ryans’ team simply just has to show up on Sundays.

While the Texans may not have been scheduled any prime time affairs, it is still possible for them to play in such contests. After Week 11, the NFL will flex more compelling games into Sunday Night Football. If the Texans are looking like a playoff team, and their opponent is equally as interesting, don’t be surprised if Houston gets at least one prime time game.

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DeMeco Ryans says Texans must ‘go out and earn’ prime time games

Houston Texans coach DeMeco Ryans believes his team must earn their way into being scheduled for prime time games.

The Houston Texans didn’t get a single prime time game on their 2023 slate.

For the first time since 2006, the Texans did not have one game placed in prime time. The only other time in Texans history they did not have a prime time game was in 2003.

For new coach DeMeco Ryans, the lack of prime time games is not a problem for his team.

“You know, with that schedule, right, not having any prime time games, you know, that’s the one thing that we kind of look forward to,” Ryans said after rookie minicamp Friday. “One thing that I’ve learned is I’ve just looked at it as for us as a team, we have to go out and earn, earn our right to be in those prime time moments.”

The only reason the Texans had prime time games the past two seasons — as moribund as the franchise was — was due to the NFL’s insistence on giving every team a Thursday Night Football game. Otherwise the Texans would have been blanked in prime time starting in 2021.

Ryans is confident he can use the lack of prime time games as motivation for the team to elevate their level of play.

“It was a good opportunity for our team to just go out, put our head down, and work and just prove where we belong,” said Ryans. “Excited about it.”

With flex scheduling, wherein the NFL flexes a better game into Sunday Night Football starting in Week 11, should the Texans start to look like a viable playoff contender, they could end up playing in a prime time game or two. Any flex into Sunday Night Football would be the Texans’ first appearance since Dec. 1, 2019, when they beat the New England Patriots 28-22 at NRG Stadium.

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Houston Texans complete 2023 schedule: Times and dates announced

The Houston Texans’ complete 2023 schedule has been revealed. Check out the times and dates for all 17 games.

The Houston Texans’ complete 2023 schedule has been revealed.

The opponents were already known when the 2022 season ended, even while the Texans were on the plane ride back from Indianapolis following Week 18. However, the times and dates weren’t secured.

Houston now knows where and when they will play all 17 games for their 22nd season and the first of the DeMeco Ryans era.

All times are Central.

Week Date Opponent Time (CT) Network
1 Sept. 10 at Baltimore Ravens 12:00 p.m. CBS Tickets
2 Sept. 17 vs. Indianapolis Colts 12:00 p.m. FOX Tickets
3 Sept. 24 at Jacksonville Jaguars 12:00 p.m. FOX Tickets
4 Oct. 1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers 12:00 p.m. CBS Tickets
5 Oct. 8 at Atlanta Falcons 12:00 p.m. FOX Tickets
6 Oct. 15 vs. New Orleans Saints 12:00 p.m. FOX
7 Oct. 22 BYE WEEK Tickets
8 Oct. 29 at Carolina Panthers 12:00 p.m. FOX Tickets
9 Nov. 5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12:00 p.m. CBS Tickets
10 Nov. 12 at Cincinnati Bengals 12:00 p.m. CBS Tickets
11 Nov. 19 vs. Arizona Cardinals 12:00 p.m. CBS Tickets
12 Nov. 26 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 12:00 p.m. CBS Tickets
13 Dec. 3 vs. Denver Broncos 3:05 p.m. CBS Tickets
14 Dec. 10 at New York Jets 12:00 p.m. CBS Tickets
15 Dec. 17 at Tennessee Titans 12:00 p.m. CBS Tickets
16 Dec. 24 vs. Cleveland Browns 12:00 p.m. CBS Tickets
17 Dec. 31 vs. Tennessee Titans 12:00 p.m. FOX Tickets
18 Jan. 6 or 7 at Indianapolis Colts TBD TBD Tickets

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