Tag: tendencies

What do Saints’ draft tendencies under Mickey Loomis look like?

What do the New Orleans Saints’ draft tendencies under Mickey Loomis look like? Lots of picks spent at defensive end and cornerback:

The New Orleans Saints have been known to take a similar approach to the NFL draft on a year-to-year basis, but does that match what the tendencies say on paper?

Arjun Menon, an NFL analyst, put together a spreadsheet to see which positions each NFL general manager has spent their top-100 draft picks on over the past 13 seasons. Here are that the results say for each of them, including Saints decision-maker Mickey Loomis:

The most commonly drafted position for Mickey Loomis over that time period was actually a tie between defensive end and cornerback.

Despite spending so much capital on the defensive end position over the past few years, it’s one that the Saints still need to spend more on to get better. Their investments at cornerback have paid off more often, though.

The only positions listed that the Saints haven’t spent a a 100 pick on is tight end and offensive guard. Cesar Ruiz was listed as a center when he was drafted, but has really only played guard in New Orleans though.

Wide receiver, offensive tackle, interior defensive linemen, and linebackers were all tied for second place. The draft capital is pretty evenly spread out, as none of the position groups were nearing a 30% number unlike some general managers on the list. But the stuff the Saints do spend the most on aren’t very surprising.

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The Vikings defense is starting to show tendencies

The Vikings are showing trends on defense

Through two games, the Minnesota Vikings have had their share of ups and downs, especially on defense.

Against the Green Bay Packers, the defense was dominant. They forced two turnovers along with accumulating four sacks and 18 pressures on star quarterback Aaron Rodgers. They were consistent against the pass but were a little flawed against the run.

On Monday night versus the Eagles, it was a different story. They challenged Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts to beat them with a bunch of layups and he did just that. They amassed nearly 500 yards and made it look easy.

The defense itself is starting to show some tendencies as far as how they lineup. The Vikings defense is currently second in the NFL in how much they lineup in a Nickel defense.

There are some other tendencies that are worth noting that ESPN’s Kevin Seifert included in that thread. The Vikings are

  • Lowest in the NFL in man coverage at 7.7%
  • Highest in cover-2 usage at 46.2

These shouldn’t be a big surprise as defensive coordinator Ed Donatell runs a lot of cover-2 and quarters coverage to keep things in front of them. As things progress, mixing in more man coverage will likely occur as Donatell uses more blitzes to keep things interesting.

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How have the Saints improved at drafting with Jeff Ireland on board?

It feels like it’s only a matter of time before Jeff Ireland leaves the Saints for a GM job. How the team has improved on draft day, and what they risk in losing him:

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Jeff Ireland has held the title of assistant general manager for the New Orleans Saints for a couple years now, but his biggest contributions have come as their college scouting director. So when the Chicago Bears requested and were granted an interview with him for their vacant general manager job (a post he’s held before, with the Miami Dolphins) debate immediately launched among fans as to how big a loss Ireland could be.

It’s not an easy answer to come up with. Let’s start by discussing what defines a good pick. Is the player an annual All-Pro? A Pro Bowler? Do they get a second contract (either with the team that drafted them or somewhere else)? Are they just better than their peers from the same draft class, or those picked in the same round? Do the same standards apply to a first round choice and a seventh round flyer? Everyone has their own opinion on what the expectations should be.

But a quick and easy barometer is just looking at how often players are, well, playing. The average NFL career lasts only 3.3 years, or about 53 games, so we’ll use that as our standard for this exercise. Let’s run through the list of draft picks the Saints have made since hiring Ireland back in 2015, distinguishing between an overall hit rate and the success of players drafted in the top 100 (where there’s typically a talent cliff between the rest of the class), and see how many of those selections have passed the test:

Saints’ offseason of change could continue by trading down in the 2021 draft

The New Orleans Saints have only traded down three times with Sean Payton calling the shots in their draft war room, and not since 2007.

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“Eh, I don’t like that pick. The Saints should trade down and get more picks instead.”

Anyone who has ever shared a mock draft has heard that line before, or something close to it. It’s the top call fans around the NFL would make when their team is on the clock; move back, and get more at-bat opportunities. More darts to throw at the board. More picks.

The problem — for Saints fans — is that New Orleans hasn’t traded down since the 2007 draft. Sean Payton made three trades down the board in his first two years as head coach, and he hasn’t done it since. Instead, he and his braintrust have favored aggressive trades up, leapfrogging their rivals to target prospects they value highly. Playing it conservative and backpedaling isn’t in their DNA.

“There’s a notion [that the Saints only trade up, not down] because there’s history,” general manager Mickey Loomis joked back in 2019. He added, “We’d be open to trading back if the timing is right and if the value is right.”

But what happened the last time the Saints traded back? Let’s review each deal:

  • 2006: Saints traded from No. 34 down to No. 43, adding center Jeff Faine, who was elected a team captain and named a 2007 Pro Bowl alternate. He later departed in free agency for the cross-division Buccaneers. The Saints chose safety Roman Harper with this pick, who earned two Pro Bowl nods and started for nearly a decade.
  • 2006: Saints traded from No. 99 back to No. 108 for defensive tackle Hollis Thomas, who started for them until a 2008 training camp injury ended his New Orleans tenure. The Saints picked guard Jahri Evans with this selection, who earned six Pro Bowl trips and five AP All-Pro selections (four on the first team).
  • 2007: Saints traded from No. 58 to No. 66 and a fifth round pick (No. 145), using it to acquire cornerback David Jones. Jones was released during final roster cuts. They picked safety Usama Young at No. 66, who appeared intermittently in the lineup until 2010, when he left in free agency to continue his career with the Browns and Raiders.

Today’s roster is maybe more similar to the 2006 and 2007 teams Payton built from the ground up than it might first appear. While the Saints have plenty of star talent on each side of the ball, they lack a strong middle class on their depth chart — critical reinforcements needed to step up when injuries inevitably thin out the group. Trading down, acquiring low-cost veterans from other teams and more picks, would make sense.

Maybe it’s the right situation to make the Saints reconsider their aggressive approach. This entire offseason has brought sweeping changes to New Orleans; ranging from the long-expected retirement of Drew Brees to a change in philosophy towards compensatory draft picks. A continued shift in reflection of the team’s evolving mission statement doesn’t sound too off-base.

Their goal isn’t to rush and put all of the chips on the table to win another Super Bowl before Brees retires. That window has closed. Now it’s about continuing to compete in the NFC South against the upstart title-champion Buccaneers, while remaining a step ahead of the reeling Falcons and Sam Darnold-led Panthers.

With just 60 players under contract right now for 2021 (tied for second-fewest in the league) and only 32 players signed for 2022, maximizing resources like draft picks would do a lot to help accomplish their goals. So keep that in mind on draft day. The winds of change are beginning to pick up. Maybe they impact how the Saints approach the draft, too.

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