The No. 11 TCU Horned Frogs (16-4) battle the Mississippi State Bulldogs (12-8) Saturday. Tip from Humphrey Coliseum is set for 4 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the TCU vs. Mississippi State odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
This will likely be the only time these teams face each other this season as they take part in the Big 12/SEC Challenge.
TCU is coming into this battle off a 79-52 win over Oklahoma Tuesday, covering as a 5-point home favorite. The Horned Frogs are 7-2-1 against the spread (ATS) over their last 10. They are a strong 12-7-1 ATS on the season. While strong on both sides of the ball, their key strength is in their defense, ranking 50th in the nation in opponents’ points per game (64.3).
Mississippi State, on the other hand, lost to No. 2 Alabama 66-63 Wednesday, covering as a 12-point road underdog. The Bulldogs are 8-11-1 ATS on the season and are 3-7 ATS on their last 10. Mississippi State’s strength is defense, ranking 13th in nation in opponents’ field goal percentage (38.9%).
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TCU at Mississippi State odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:45 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): TCU -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Mississippi State +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread (ATS): TCU -2.5 (-105) | Mississippi State +2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 131.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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TCU at Mississippi State picks and predictions
Prediction
TCU 68, Mississippi State 62
Moneyline
PASS.
TCU is the more proven side, and I would prefer to play it on the spread here.
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Against the spread
BET TCU -2.5 (-105).
The Horned Frogs have been impressive on the road despite a 3-2 straight-up record. They are 4-1 ATS on the road and have wins over Kansas, Baylor and Utah.
Mississippi State, on the other hand, is 8-3 straight up at home but has lost 5 in a row and is 1-8 over the last 9 games. The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games as well.
Given their incompetence at home against conference opponents and the Horned Frogs’ road play, back TCU -2.5 (-105) to get the job done.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 131.5 (-110).
TCU might be 11-9 O/U this season, but it has gone Under in 3-straight games. It held Oklahoma to 52 in its last game Jan. 24 and held Kansas to 60 on Jan. 21.
The Horned Frogs have a tenacious defense, ranking top 50 in opponents’ points per game (64.3), opponents’ field goal percentage (40.5%) and opponents’ 3-point field goal percentage (29.5%).
The Bulldogs are 6-14 O/U this season and have gone Under in 4 of their last 6 games. They haven’t scored over 65 points in a game this calendar year yet. So they may struggle to score on TCU. With a top-15 defense in terms of opponents’ points per game (58.7) and opponents’ field goal percentage, the Bulldogs also thrive on that side of the court.
Considering both teams’ strengths, back the UNDER 131.5 (-110).
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