The Tampa Bay Lightning (42-20-5) visit the Boston Bruins (43-13-12) in a Saturday-night (7 p.m. ET) battle of beasts in the East at TD Garden. We analyze the Lightning-Bruins odds and lines, while providing NHL betting tips around this matchup.
Lightning at Bruins: Projected starting goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy vs. Tuukka Rask
Vasilevskiy carded a 32-save shutout against Montreal Thursday (both Tampa Bay and Boston head into Saturday’s tilt after one off day). The Thursday start and the turn prior (Tuesday vs. Boston) combined to mark a bounce-back for the 25-year-old Russian. Over four games from Feb. 20-29, Vasilevskiy had posted a mere .839 save percentage. In the start against the Bruins Tuesday, he stopped 33-of-35 pucks. For the season, he owns a 2.56 goals-against average and .916 SV. He’s 2-1 with a .931 SV against Boston.
Rask started Tuesday’s game at Tampa Bay (his last start) and earned the win, allowing just one goal on 21 shots. He has started all three games against the Lightning and has registered a .920 SV in the process. On the season, Rask has notched a 2.13 GAA and .928 SV in 39 games. Since the All-Star break, the 13-year NHL veteran has logged an 8-3 record alongside a 1.77 GAA and .937 SV. Over his last five start on three days’ rest, Rask has posted a .966 SV.
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Lightning at Bruins: Odds, picks and betting tips
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access them at USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Saturday at 11:39 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Tampa Bay 3, Boston 2
Moneyline (ML)
The analysis here shakes out as a Lightning lean on Pythagorean comparisons (comparing won-loss record to what is “should be” using goals for and against) and on recent puck-possession analytics. Going against Rask swings the lean back to almost level.
But the price on the visitors is just good enough to make TAMPA BAY +115 a small-confidence play.
Puck Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
All three previous meetings between the Lightning and Bruins have been decided by one goal. The projected game flow here calls for a one-goal game and an under, but the puck line price — Tampa Bay +1.5 (-250) — isn’t worth the risk. PASS.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Under is a combined 22-11 for these teams when playing in a game lined with a 5.5 total. The average total for Tampa Bay-as-road-dog games is 5.29.
PLAY THE UNDER 5.5 (-115) in this intriguing Saturday-night Atlantic Division tilt.
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