Tag: tale of the tape

Tale of the Tape: Auburn vs Texas A&M

The Aggies are favored, but is this game closer than it looks?

The undefeated Auburn Tigers travel to College Station this week to take on conference rival Texas A&M to kick off 2023 SEC play.

The Tigers come into this game riding high off their dismantling of Samford in the homecoming game last week, while Texas A&M is also coming off a blowout win, a 47-3 thumping over Louisiana Monroe.

Overall, the Tigers are 3-0 and the Aggies are 2-1.

While Auburn comes in with the better record, A&M’s “12th man” home-field advantage paired with their recent recruiting superiority have them favored by a touchdown according to BetMGM.

ESPN FPI gives the Tigers even less of an implied chance at winning, as the Index gives Auburn just a 32.8% chance of improving to 4-0 on the season.

Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show Auburn has a higher chance of pulling off a win in College Station than the experts believe? As always, we’ll start with the quarterbacks.

Auburn signal caller [autotag]Payton Thorne[/autotag] broke out in a monstrous way against Samford. After struggling with inconsistencies in his first two games as a Tiger, Thorne lit up the stat sheet in week three, accumulating 405 all purpose yards and 3 total touchdowns.

Thorne did throw two interceptions however. Turnovers have been a problem for the Michigan State transfer, as he now has 4 of them in just 3 games.

In those three games, Thorne has thrown for 517 yards, picking up 4 touchdowns while throwing 3 interceptions.

Auburn’s QB1 has also shown an unexpected knack for running the ball, as he’s rushed for 140 yards and two touchdowns, fumbling once.

On the other side of the ball, Texas A&M quarterback [autotag]Conner Weigman[/autotag] has been outstanding.

In three games, Weigman has thrown for 909 yards and eight touchdowns.

The sophomore’s 909 yards rank 14th among all FBS quarterbacks, and his eight touchdowns have him tied for 14th in the nation.

The young star has also added a nice 69 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground.

For the first time this season, Payton Thorne and Auburn lose the quarterback matchup in the tale of the tape, and by a wide margin.

Auburn is a little closer to A&M when you look at the offensive lines and running back rooms.

The Aggies are averaging 129.7 rushing yards per game and have scored 6 times on the ground this season.

Auburn meanwhile has been great on the ground, averaging nearly 100 more yards on the ground than the Aggies.

Between Thorne, [autotag]Robby Ashford[/autotag], [autotag]Jarquez Hunter[/autotag], and the other Auburn running backs the team has rushed for 215.7 rushing yards a game, scoring 10 times on the ground.

The Tigers are averaging 5.2 yards per carry, which is tied for 24th in the FBS.

Texas A&M’s offensive line has been better in pass protection however. Starter [autotag]Conner Weigman[/autotag] has only been sacked twice this year, and wasn’t sacked at all in the loss against 20th ranked Miami.

The Auburn offensive line has allowed Payton Thorne to be sacked 5 times in three games against sub-par competition, although 3 of those 5 came against Cal when the offense looked lost.

Despite the slightly bigger struggles in pass protection, Auburn gets the edge up front because of their rushing prowess in the early season.

In terms of defense, it’s impossible to give either team an edge because both units excel at stopping what the opposing offense is best at.

[autotag]Jimbo Fisher[/autotag]’s team has thrown the ball 36 more times this year than they have run it. The team has nearly as many completions (87) as they do rushing attempts (91).

This play style caters right into the strength of an Auburn defense that is exceptional against the pass and mediocre against the run.

The Tigers have allowed just 160.5 pass yards per game to opponents this year. That number currently ranks 17 in the nation.

As good as Auburn’s defense has been against the pass, Texas A&M’s has been nearly as good against the run.

The Aggies rank in the middle of the pack in rush yards allowed per carry with 4.3, but they rank high in opponent’s total rush yards per game (98.3) because of their offense’s ability to make the opponent play from behind.

Because of the play styles of both offenses playing into the strengths of the opposing defenses, I’m calling this a wash.

This game is going to be close. How close is going to depend on the play of Texas A&M quarterback [autotag]Conner Weigman[/autotag].

If Weigman can take over the game and put up points on Auburn’s pass defense it’s going to be a tough ask for the Tigers offense to keep up.

If Weigman struggles, Auburn has a chance to improve to 4-0 for the first time since 2019.

Auburn kicks off SEC play against Texas A&M on Saturday at 11 CST.

Contact/Follow us @TheAuburnWire on  X (Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Auburn news, notes, and opinion. You can also follow Brian on Twitter @TheRealBHauch

Tale of the Tape: Auburn vs Samford

Auburn should win Saturday, but there is one aspect that they should keep an eye on.

The Samford Bulldogs travel to Jordan-Hare stadium to wish undefeated Auburn a happy homecoming this Saturday at 7 p.m. CT.

The Bulldogs are coming off a rough 30-7 loss at the hands of conference opponent Western Carolina, while the Tigers head into this game without a loss, most recently beating California in Berkeley 14-10.

It is clear Auburn has the edge in this game, not only from a pure talent standpoint but also because of the emotional advantage of a homecoming game.

ESPN FPI gives the Tigers a 98.7% chance of winning and improving to 3-0 on Saturday, a record Auburn hasn’t achieved since 2019, when they started the season 5-0.

Most of the country will check off this week three showdown as a blowout, but will the tale of the tape show us this game could be closer than most think?

The quarterback matchup is fairly interesting heading into this one.

Auburn quarterback [autotag]Payton Thorne[/autotag] has been serviceable this season, completing 19/31 passes for 235 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception.

He has also fumbled once.

[autotag]Robby Ashford[/autotag] has also seen ample playing time for the Tigers, completing 3/9 passes for three yards.

Most of his damage has been done on the ground, where he has rushed for 59 yards on 13 carries, finding the end zone thrice.

On the other side, Samford quarterback [autotag]Michael Heirs[/autotag] has been absolutely electric for the Bulldogs since he transferred to the school in 2022.

Heirs was the 2022 SoCon Offensive Player of the Year last season, collecting 3,544 yards through the air and tying the school record with 36 touchdown passes.

The 36 touchdowns and 3,544 yards were fourth and sixth in the entire nation, respectively.

Heirs also checks in at 6″1 tall and 215 pounds. While you would expect an FCS quarterback to be undersized, his attributes are very comparable to Thorne, who stands 6″2 and weighs in at 203 pounds.

With all that being said, the clear edge in quarterback play still goes to Payton Thorne and Robby Ashford, as the experience and quality wins against FBS opponents outweigh the accolades of Heirs.

A more clear advantage for Auburn is on the defensive side of the ball, where they shined in week two against Cal.

The Tigers’ defense has been decent against the pass this season but struggled against the run in week one against UMass. The good news for Auburn is that run defense seemed to fix itself in week two.

The front seven was able to hold NFL talent [autotag]Jaydn Ott[/autotag] to 3.9 YPC off the back of linebacker [autotag]Eugene Asante[/autotag]’s SEC co-defensive player of the week performance.

The even better news for Auburn is Samford does not run the ball, as their running backs combined for just 14 carries a week ago.

The Bulldogs passing attack is better than most FCS teams, but Auburn’s defensive strength so far in 2023 has been against the pass.

As for Samford’s defense, the glaring stat is the 25.4 PPG they gave up in 2022 to FCS teams. The number itself is respectable, Auburn is much steeper competition.

Auburn gets the edge in defense.

The final edge to Auburn goes in the sheer size department. Auburn’s offensive line weighs an average of 313 pounds.

The average weight of Samford’s interior defensive lineman is 270 pounds.

Discrepancies like that exist throughout the field. Even if the Bulldogs play a great game, the physical tool endured by them may be too much by the time the second half rolls around.

Auburn kicks off its homecoming game against Samford at 7 PM CST on Saturday at Jordan-Hare.

It should be a very happy homecoming for Tiger fans.

Contact/Follow us @TheAuburnWire on  X (Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Auburn news, notes, and opinions. You can also follow Brian on Twitter @TheRealBHauch

Rose Bowl Tale of the Tape: Comparing Penn State and Utah

Tale of the Tape: Does Penn State or Utah have the edge in the Rose Bowl?

Penn State and Utah are two teams heading to the Rose Bowl with some similar storylines and traits. Utah will enter the game as the Pac-12 champion while Penn State finished in third place in its division. But both teams have accumulated 10 wins this season, some certainly more noteworthy than others. And both teams will be missing some key players on both sides of the football for the Rose Bowl.

Who has the edge? Utah is considered a slight favorite in Pasadena, but most would tell you this is a fairly balanced matchup. Here is a look at how the Nittany Lions and Utes compare based on this season’s developments.

For statistical purposes, we are referencing stats as provided by CFBStats.com.

Oregon vs. Washington: ‘Tale of the Tape’ for No. 6 Ducks’ rivalry vs. No. 25 Huskies

Both Oregon and Washington have great offenses. Both also have relatively mediocre defenses. Who gets the edge according to the numbers?

It hasn’t been hard to drum up excitement about this game for Oregon Duck fans. While the past couple of weeks have come against teams that sit near the bottom of the Pac-12 Power Rankings, the next opponent on the schedule has the attention of everyone in Eugene. Not only because it’s Washington, and the Huskies are arguably the biggest rival there is inside the walls of Autzen Stadium, but also because it’s another top-25 matchup and one that Oregon absolutely needs to win if they want to continue their impressive run in the 2022 season.

Take out the rivalry, and this would still be a good game. The Ducks and Huskies match up well. With a pair of great offenses and a couple of middling defenses, we should expect points and entertainment on Saturday. Who has the ultimate edge, though?

To answer that question, we wanted to dive into the tape and see what the numbers tell us.

Tale of the Tape: Comparing Penn State and Maryland

Who has the head-to-head advantage between Penn State and Maryland? Let’s check the tale of the tape.

This week Penn State returns home for one of its final home games of the 2022 regular season when it hosts regional foe Maryland. Penn State has historically dominated the series with Maryland, and they are expected to continue their winning ways in the series this weekend. Maryland is not exactly a pushover though and the Terrapins know what they do against Penn State will help determine the progress of the program’s overall direction.

Both teams have some similar trends going for them this season. The quarterback comparison between Sean Clifford and Taulia Tagovailoa is a bit closer than you might have anticipated without looking at the numbers side-by-side, and Maryland also features a standout freshman running back carrying the load of the offense, while Penn State has a freshman duo like no other.

So who has the advantage this week? Let’s take a closer look at some of the comparisons at a couple of key positions and national team rankings in a handful of significant categories.

For statistical purposes, we are referencing stats as provided by CFBStats.com.

Tale of the tape: Comparing Penn State and Ohio State

Tale of the Tape: Penn State vs. Ohio State, who has the edge?

As much as Penn State can stand on its own history, there is little debate that Ohio State is very much viewed as a measuring stick for success in the Big Ten.  And more often than not, Penn State has come up short.

The Buckeyes make their trip to Happy Valley this weekend and once again Penn State will be viewed by many by what they do against them. And just two weeks after getting crushed by Michigan, Penn State is in search of an opportunity to gain back some national respect with a solid showing against Ohio State.

But there may be a reason why Ohio State comes to town favored by at least two touchdowns. Years of top-notch recruiting and player development have built Ohio State into a perennial playoff contender, and this year is no exception. So how does Penn State stack up against one of the best teams in the country?

Let’s take a bit of a deeper look at the numbers.

For statistical purposes, we are referencing stats as provided by CFBStats.com.

Oregon vs. Arizona: ‘Tale of the Tape for Ducks’ road trip to the desert

The Ducks are favored by double-digits in this road game against Arizona, but should they be? Let’s see what the numbers say.

It’s been a few years since the Oregon Ducks went down to the desert and came back with a win. While Oregon has only taken a pair of trips to Tucson in the past decade, they haven’t gotten a victory since 2011, and instead have suffered a couple of really tough losses that have left a mark.

Fortunately, new head coach Dan Lanning and many of the players on this team haven’t experienced any of these negative memories from the desert. They are trying to start a new history.

“I think our players are aware of the history there and in this game,” Lanning said on Wednesday. “Anytime you go on the road in this conference is going to be a challenge. We’re expecting Arizona’s absolute best, but just like we’ve kind of set every week, we’re not playing Arizona. We’re playing Oregon. Right? That’s our focus right now. We got to be the best version of us.”

Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry: Tale of the Tape for Auburn-Georgia

How do the offensive and defensive units compare for the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry?

In one of the two biggest games of the year, the Auburn Tigers face the Georgia Bulldogs in the annual Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry game. The road team enters Week 6 with a 3-2 (1-1 in the SEC) record and faces the No. 2 team in the country. Georgia is 5-0 (2-0) but they haven’t looked as dominant in the past two weeks.

Normally when it comes to a rivalry game you can throw out the record books but history isn’t on the side of Auburn in this game. Georgia has won five straight and dominate the series over the last 20 games. Auburn has won just five times in that span.

However, we have a clean slate this year. At least that has to be the mindset for the Tigers this week and beyond. Just take one game at a time and focus on one win at a time. It will be a tall task against one of the best teams in the country statistically.

The Bulldogs feature a top-five scoring offense and defense. But this is why you play the games, they aren’t won or lost on paper. A team that barely scored 14 against Auburn two weeks ago was within striking distance of taking down Georgia this past Saturday.

As we inch closer to kickoff in Athens, we preview the game with the tale of the tape.

When Auburn has the ball

Zach Bland/AU Athletics

A look at the Tigers offense vs the Bulldogs defense

Off Category Stat Rank Def Category Stat Rank
Total Off. 389.0 80th Total Def 264.4 11th
Pass/Game 229.6 83rd Pass/Game 175.2 17th
Pass TD 4 111th Pass TD 3 8th
Rush/Game 159.4 66th Rush/Game 89.2 12th
Rush TD 10 48th Rush TD 1 1st
Scoring 22.4 107th Scoring 10.8 4th
Redzone TD% 64.7 60th Redzone TD% 37.5 7th

When Georgia has the ball

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

A look at the Bulldogs offense vs the Tigers defense

Off Category Stat Rank Def Category Stat Rank
Total Off. 521.4 5th Total Def 331.8 34th
Pass/Game 342.8 8th Pass/Game 193.6 34th
Pass TD 7 79th Pass TD 2 3rd
Rush/Game 178.6 47th Rush/Game 138.2 66th
Rush TD 15 6th Rush TD 10 99th
Scoring 40.2 19th Scoring 21.6 44th
Redzone TD% 61.3 76th Redzone TD% 57.9 57th

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Tale of the Tape: Comparing Penn State and Auburn

Tale of the Tape: Who has the better quarterback, running back, and wide receivers? Breaking down Penn State vs. Auburn

Penn State doesn’t make a trip down into SEC territory often, so this weekend should be one worth cherishing. Penn State flies south to take on the Auburn Tigers in the second game of a home-and-home scheduling agreement that started last season. Penn State won in Beaver Stadium before an electric whiteout crowd, and now they could be stepping foot into an orange out in Auburn’s Jordan-Hare Stadium.

This is going to be a physical matchup that will test Penn State on the line of scrimmage, but the Nittany Lions appear to have some individual advantages to rely on this weekend. Here is our weekly tale of the tape to compare the starting quarterbacks, leading rushers, and top wide receivers, as well as a variety of other team stats.

For statistical purposes, we are referencing 2021 stats as provided by CFBStats.com.

Auburn vs Penn State: Quarterback Tale of the Tape

Breaking down the QBs for this weekend’s showdown at Jordan-Hare.

On Saturday we have two teams featuring 2-0 records going head to head. Unlike the Penn State Nittany Lions, the Auburn Tigers are facing their first Power Five opponent on the schedule. Penn State opened up its campaign with a Big Ten showdown against Purdue. The Tigers faced FCS foe Mercer and San Jose State of the Mountain West.

Going into the game we have quarterbacks at two different stages. The Nittany Lions roll out seasoned veteran Sean Clifford and the Tigers counter with unproven [autotag]T.J. Finley[/autotag], who will make his sixth start for Auburn since taking over for the injured Bo Nix last season.

As the kickoff for Auburn-Penn State draws near, we take a look at the tale of the tape between the two signal callers.

Sean Clifford vs TJ Finley

Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports

Here is how they break down:

Sean Clifford vs TJ Finley
6-2 Ht 6-7
220 Wt 246
Senior Class Junior
39 Comp 22
64 Att 34
60.9 Comp% 64.7
495 Yards 279
7.7 YPA 8.2
5 TDs 1
1 INTs 3

Based on the numbers Clifford is the more accomplished passer of the two. Finley has been splitting reps with backup Robby Ashford. Neither Auburn QB has cemented themselves as the solution to the Tigers’ offensive woes. It doesn’t help with the penalties and no clear-cut No. 1 option in the passing game either.

Last season Nix was under center for Bryan Harsin, we will soon find out if Finley or Ashford fare any better against the Nittany Lions.

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